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How to Bet on NFL Player Props: Best Prop Strategies for 2023

Mitchell South

by Mitchell South

Updated Aug 18, 2023 · 10:49 AM PDT

Player prop betting is quickly becoming the most popular way to wager on the NFL. Getting locked in on the action for each play hoping your player prop bet cashes on the next drive makes for a thrilling experience.

Gameday NFL props provide a massive slate of markets to wager on every single week. These wagers are resolved faster than moneyline, point spread, totals, and NFL futures bets for example, making the action high-paced and non-stop.

Get into NFL player prop betting with this comprehensive guide on what this wagering type is all about.

NFL Player Prop Betting Sections:

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What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?

NFL player prop bets are any wager on a specific outcome created by an individual on either team during the game. For example, a first-touchdown scorer prop bet lets you wager on which player will score the first touchdown of the game.

Say you make a $25 bet on A.J. Brown to score the first touchdown of the game at +900 odds. If A.J. Brown is the first player to cross the endzone, you win $225 and get your $25 wager back for a total payout of $250.

A.J. Brown Philadelphia Eagles touching helmet

Let’s dive deeper into NFL player prop bets like first/last touchdown scorer.

Types of NFL Player Prop Bets

Here are some examples of NFL player prop bets you’ll typically see offered at NFL betting sites.

First/Last/Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props

There are a few different touchdown player prop bets you can make on NFL games, including first, last, and anytime touchdown scorer. They’re pretty self-explanatory, but here’s a quick description of each for good measure.

  • First touchdown scorer: Bet on which player crosses the endzone first in a game
  • Last touchdown scorer: Wager on who crosses the endzone last in a game
  • Anytime touchdown scorer: Bet on a player to score a touchdown at anytime in a game

If a wide receiver catches the first touchdown of the game and you have money on them for a first-touchdown scorer wager, then you win your bet as explained above.

Quarterbacks are a bit of a different story. In order to cash a touchdown player prop bet on an NFL quarterback, they’ll have to do one of things: run the ball into the endzone themselves, or the offense executes a trick play where the quarterback catches the ball for a touchdown.

Check out our NFL touchdown prop bets guide for more details on this type of wager.

Passing Props

Making a touchdown player prop bet on a quarterback is a little bit more uncommon because of the special conditions required for a wager to cash. As an alternative, player passing props give you the opportunity to take an over/under line on a few different passing stats.

Player props on total completions, total passing yards, and total passing touchdowns present a strong possibility to pad your bankroll. One of the best ways to handicap this type of bet is to look at a quarterback’s recent statistics. If a QB has multiple games where they go over a certain number of completions consistently, it’s probably worth putting some money down on the over for a total completions passing prop.

Receiving Props

Similar to passing props, receiving prop bets give you an over/under figure for a variety of receiver stats. These include total number of receptions, total receiving yards, and longest reception in the game.

For example, you could make a receiving prop wager on Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs, especially when KS sports betting apps launch on September 1, 2022.

Again, the best way to handicap this type of NFL player prop bet is to look at a player’s most recent performances. If a receiver isn’t averaging a ton of yards, then you might want to consider taking the under on a receiving yards prop bet.

Rushing Props

Finally, rushing props also set an over/under line, this time for a player’s total rush attempts, rushing yards, or a combination of rushing + receiving yards.

One thing to consider with this wager is some NFL coaches run systems that rely heavily on rushing, especially if there’s a star running back on the team. Furthermore, weather conditions can play a big part in how often a team runs the ball, as freezing temperatures and snow will encourage teams to hand the ball to their running back more often than usual.

NFL Player Prop Strategies

Bettors making successful NFL player prop bets know there are a few key strategies to follow when making this type of wager. Whether its a regular season game or the Super Bowl, there are a few tips to pay attention to on NFL player prop markets.

Studying matchups, line shopping for the best player prop bet odds, diversifying your proposition bets, and considering external factors can go a long way in improving your profitability. Let’s go through these NFL player prop betting  strategies in further detail.

Study Matchups

One of the most important strategies for NFL player prop betting success is studying team matchups and how specific players perform. The best individual players in the league like Patrick Mahomes will obviously light up most of the competition, but there can be real value found in researching how lesser known players perform against specific opponents.

Studying player performance across time can even help you make prop bets on players joining a new team, like Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets. While you might not be exactly sure how he’ll look with his new squad, studying his stats from last season can give you a better idea of how to bet when the Jets are up against familiar opponents.

In 2022, Rodgers averaged 234.5 yards per game against AFC East opponents, so you can expect similar performances in 2023 as he enters a new division. His best game for total passing yards against AFC East opponents in 2022 was 251 against the New England Patriots,  while his lowest total for passing yardage against these opponents was 203 when they faced the Buffalo Bills. It’s these types of matchups you’ll want to study when making NFL player prop bets.

Go Line Shopping

With so many online sportsbooks at your disposal, there’s no excuse not to conduct thorough line shopping before finalizing an NFL player prop bet. Oddsmakers know how to create betting  markets that entice potential bettors, which can be especially attractive for both game props and player props.

If you have a particular NFL player prop in mind, make sure you check the prices with multiple different sportsbooks like DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, BetRivers, and FanDuel Sportsbook. Getting the best prices on your NFL player prop bets can make a huge difference in your long term profitability, especially because player prop lines can move so rapidly.

Try Multiple NFL Props Markets

When making NFL player prop bets, consider multiple different markets and play around with what works best for you as a sports bettor. Everybody loves betting overs, but if you’ve done your research and there’s an under line you really like, don’t hesitate!

Diversifying your player prop bets to cover multiple aspects of any given game can help you find an advantage over the sportsbooks. Interception player props are one such example you may want to investigate on both the offensive and defensive side to change up your betting strategy.

Combining multiple player props into a parlay is another option to consider, but remember, parlays come with a lot of risk. You can mitigate some of this risk by correlating wagers in an NFL same-game parlay.

Consider Additional Factors

Finally, considering additional factors outside of any player prop bet like weather conditions, coaching strategies, and injury reports is a crucial factor in your player prop betting strategy. The NFL calendar presents a ton of player prop betting opportunities all season long, and the rollercoaster of surprises that come with these additional factors can have huge impacts on how you should strategize.

For instance, rainy weather conditions can mean a running back will get more carries in a game, while injured players on the defensive side can open up more opportunity for certain players. The more research you do for NFL player prop bets, the better, especially when it comes to these secondary factors that can sometimes be overlooked.

Picking Your NFL Player Prop Bets

Picking your NFL player props is a great way to get into the game. NFL season is now in effect, which means that it’s time to start thinking about your NFL player prop bets. There are a wide variety of props to choose from and it can be hard to pick the right one.

As mentioned in the previous section, looking at a player’s recent performances and taking external factors like weather conditions into consideration can help you tremendously with your NFL player prop bet selections. Taking note of a team’s NFL strength of schedule can also help, as a team with an easier schedule will likely have players popping off for some huge games over the course of the year.

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Are NFL Player Prop Bets a Good Idea?

NFL player prop bets are a great way to pad your bankroll throughout the NFL season. The popularity of NFL player props has been increasing in recent years, so much that some people see them as the best way to wager on all the gridiron action.

Player props are an easy way to get started with betting on NFL games. If you’re not sure what team you want to bet on for a given game, then these are a great way to go because they offer more flexibility than betting on one team outright.

If you’re looking for more bonuses to boost your potential winnings on NFL player prop bets, Barstool Sportsbook promos are some of the best in the business. Also be sure to look into grabbing a Bet365 bonus code, or if you haven’t already, a DraftKings promo code.

NFL Player Prop Betting FAQ

You’ve got questions about NFL player prop betting, and we’ve got answers. Here’s a few answers to NFL player prop bet FAQs to get you started with this exciting wagering opportunity:

How do NFL player prop bets work?

An NFL player prop bet is any wager on a specific player that isn’t tied to the outcome of the game. You place your bet on a player to score the first touchdown or rush over a certain number of yards, for example.

What happens to my NFL prop bet if a player gets injured?

An NFL prop bet is graded a loss if the player you wagered on is injured during the game. However, an NFL prop bet is voided if the player you wagered on is listed as inactive before the game begins.

How do NFL player prop bet payouts work?

An example is if you place a $10 bet on a player to have under 7.5 total receptions at +110 odds, and they catch the football less than 7 times total throughout the game, you would win $11 for a total payout of $21.

How do you develop a successful NFL player prop strategy?

Developing a successful NFL player prop betting strategy comes down to research. You should analyze matchups, diversify your prop bets, and conduct thorough line shopping for the best odds. Make sure you also consider additional factors like weather conditions, coaching strategies, and the latest injury reports.

Are there any specific statistics or metrics to focus on when formulating an NFL player prop strategy?

Yes, paying close attention to a player’s statistics against particular opponents is crucial when formulating an NFL player prop strategy. Take a detailed look at as many metrics as possible from previous games where a player was up against certain other teams or players.

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