NFL Player Prop Betting Strategies for 2024

Player prop betting is quickly becoming the most popular way to wager on the NFL. Getting locked in on the action for each play hoping your player prop bet cashes on the next drive makes for a thrilling experience.

NFL props provide a massive slate of markets to wager on every single week. These wagers are often graded faster than moneyline, point spread, totals, and NFL futures bets for example – since a player may hit their over or score a touchdown very early in the game, meaning you don’t have to wait until the end of the game to figure out if your bet won – making the action high-paced and non-stop.

But don’t dive into NFL player props without a strategy!

NFL Player Prop Betting Sections:

• NFL Player Prop Strategies
• NFL Player Prop Bet Rules
• Are NFL Player Prop Bets a Good Idea?
• NFL Player Prop Betting FAQ

NFL Player Prop Strategies

There are many things to consider when betting NFL player props and many different strategies you can take. Attempting to blindly bet NFL player props is essentially a gift to the sportsbooks. So, let’s walk through some of the main factors to consider as well as some of the strategies I employ when betting NFL player props.

Know the Spread & Total of the Game

Knowing the spread of the game can help you determine which players/props you want to focus on, or which you want to avoid. The best example of this is how you may bet the player props of a 14-point underdog. If you think the sportsbook is right in their handicapping of the two teams, then you can expect the heavy underdog to be playing from behind often, which will likely result in less work on the ground for their running back. In this same scenario, you might want to look into the rushing props for the heavy favorite’s RB, since they will likely to looking to kill some clock while playing with the lead.

Knowing the total does essentially the same thing for you. Again, as long as you agree with the sportsbook’s handicapping, I would not recommend betting too many players to go over their passing/rushing/receiving props, or many players to score an anytime touchdown, in a game with a total that’s south of 40. On the flipside, I wouldn’t be betting too many unders in a game where the total is set close to 60.

You can view both of these lines on our NFL odds page.

Make Sure You Check the Weather

This may sound obvious, but please make sure you are checking the weather report before you lock in any bets. The last thing you want to do is jump on a QB’s passing line because it appears absurdly low, only to find out they’re playing in slop with high winds.

We’re currently working on a tool to not only display the weather in each game, but to project the impact the weather will have on each player.

Focus on One Specific Type of Prop if You’re Feeling Overwhelmed

If you jump over to the DraftKings or FanDuel apps and find yourself a little overwhelmed with all the different options/markets available for NFL player props, know that you’re not alone. Lots of newer bettors struggle with this and even some of the more seasoned bettors feel overloaded with betting options.

If this is you, I recommend focusing in on one specific prop, whether it be passing yards, receptions, or rushing yards, and ignoring all the rest until you start to feel more comfortable. If you still find all the rest of the lines to be distracting, you may want to try out BetMGM or Caesars Sportsbook, as both keep it simpler with their offerings.

Look Beyond Averages When Doing Research

One of the biggest mistakes I see when it comes to betting NFL player props is people only relying on averages – this player averages 51 receiving yards per game and his line is set at 48.5, so I’m going to bet the over etc.

Averages are a decent place to start your research, but you need to go further than simply the mean. Using the example above, that player may have only gone over 48.5 in one game, but he had a really big game, so it has pulled up his average. Meanwhile, his other six games have all been around 40 yards. So, that over bet doesn’t seem too great anymore.

The other thing you want to go deeper into is the context of when he is going over and under that total. Maybe he hits the over every time his team is favored. Maybe he’s always gone under his line when the game is played outside. We need to make sure we’re going much deeper into our research than a simple average.

Understand Each Matchup Is Unique

Just because a player ran for 150 yards the previous week, it does not automatically mean he is “hot” and has a better chance to do it the following week. It also doesn’t necessarily mean he will be featured in the offense again the following week.

I cannot stress enough that each matchup in the NFL is unique, and that some schemes just simply play well against others. Some coaches have other team’s/coach’s numbers. Some wide receivers fare better against certain corners than others. Each game could bring a different strategy/gameplan than what we saw that team do the previous week. So, don’t blindly bet a player to do anything just because they did it the previous week.

Bet Unders on NFL Player Props Too

I know. Unders kind of suck. Very few people are happy watching a football game that ends in 10-7 and didn’t feature much action. However, those games do happen.

We have also seen some great defensive-minded coaches like Bill Belichick, Vic Fangio, or Steve Spagnuolo be able to either consistently take one offensive player out of the game or just generally make life tough on good offenses. Unders happen. You should be happy and prepared to profit off them.

Use WR/CB Matchup Tools

When betting receiver props, it is vitally important to understand whether the defense they are facing is a man or zone coverage team. If they’re a man coverage team, the next thing to know is which corner is likely to matchup with each receiver from the offense.

A great example of this is looking at a team who is playing the Cleveland Browns under DC Jim Schwartz. As a team who typically plays a lot of man coverage, I want to know which player Denzel Ward will be matched against and whether Ward will follow him around the formation. There’s a decent chance I either lay off or bet the under for that WR, and instead pick on one of Cleveland’s other corners.

Check Player Prop Lines When They Open

With the insane amount of player props sportsbooks make available each week of the NFL season, there simply is not enough time for them to put eyes on each individual prop. This means there will be some bad lines set every week. However, the sharper bettors will find these pretty quickly and the sportsbooks will begin to correct the line.

Waiting too long into the week before looking at NFL player props will often result in you only having pretty sharp lines to bet. Go pick off some of those soft lines when they open.

Consider Alternate Lines for Player Props When Appropriate

Unless you’re putting together an NFL same-game parlay, I don’t typically recommend taking a “safer” alternate line or milestone – what I mean by this is taking a line of 40+ for a player whose line is 48.5, for example. Typically, the value is not there.

However, if you have found a player whose line is way off what you’re expecting from them, don’t be afraid to sweeten the odds by using alternate lines or milestones. To be clear, milestones will only work in this scenario if you want to bet a player to go over their standard line. But alternate lines can be used either way. If done properly, your bet will come with much longer odds than betting the standard line.

For example, if you think Bo Nix’s over/under of 204.5 for passing yards in Week 1 is wildly low for a Sean Payton quarterback, you could simply bet the over. But in these situations where you feel a line is way off, I recommend taking a look at the alternate lines and/or milestones, maybe taking Nix for 225+ passing yards, allowing you to cash in even bigger on your good read.

Most sportsbooks offer these markets, but alternate passing yards, alternate rushing yards, and alternate receiving yards are among the most popular.

Consider Injury Before Betting NFL Season-Long Player Props

Have you ever found yourself looking at season-long player props and wondered why some of the lines are so low? There is a simple answer: injuries happen.

Just as JJ McCarthy bettors are finding out this season, players will miss time and sportsbooks typically will not void a season-long bet just because a player got injured before the season starts. So, be sure you are factoring in potential injuries before laying season-long NFL player prop bets.

Always Shop for the Best Line

Shopping for the best line, as well as the best odds, is arguably the most important strategy when betting NFL player props – or making any other bet. Sportsbooks are often pretty sharp with their lines and the difference of a couple yards could result in you winning/losing your bet.

So, don’t just settle for Patrick Mahomes to go over 297.5 passing yards because that’s the line at DraftKings, where you do most of your betting. Look at other sportsbooks first. You may find a sportsbook with his line as low as 294.5. You may also find one sportsbook offering the over on 294.5 at -110 odds, while another is offering +100 odds on the same line. Ensuring you win the most money possible on each bet is crucial to long-term success.

I do appreciate opening each betting app and navigating to find the specific prop you want to bet can be time consuming, so I recommend using our NFL props page to allow us to make the line shopping easier for you.

NFL Player Prop Bet Rules

The rules around betting NFL player props are pretty straightforward and I find them to be communicated pretty well in the title/description of each market. If you bet an over on a line of 67.5 receiving yards, that player must finish with at least 68 receiving yards for you to win your bet. If you bet a milestone of 50+ rushing yards, that player must finish with at least 50 rushing yards for you to win that bet.

Though it’s rare, pushes do happen with player props. We see this most often around reception props, as they’re the prop where lines may not contain a hook (the .5) attached.

Are NFL Player Prop Bets a Good Idea?

NFL player props are a great way to bet the NFL this football season. Instead of betting on the majority of 30+ players to do their jobs each week, which is what you’re wagering on with moneylines, spreads, and even totals, you’re just betting on one specific player to have a good/bad game. The popularity of NFL player props continues to surge with each season.

Player props are an easy way to get started with betting on NFL games, especially if you’re entering the sports betting space with some DFS/fantasy experience. Most people are familiar with player stats and trying to pinpoint good/bad matchups for specific players/positions. This type of research carries over and provides some familiarity to the majority of new bettors.

However, if you have a gambling problem or struggle with addiction, then the answer to this question is going to be a resounding “no.”

NFL Player Prop Betting FAQ

You’ve got questions about NFL player prop betting, and we’ve got answers. Here’s a few answers to NFL player prop bet FAQs to get you started with this exciting wagering opportunity: