2019 NHL Hart Trophy Odds Tracker

• Who are the top contenders for the 2019 NHL Hart Trophy?
• Look at odds for individual players in addition league-wide trends from past years
• Track and visualize how odds fluctuate throughout the 2018-19 NHL campaign

---

The Professional Hockey Writers’ Association has awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy to the league’s most valuable player since 1926, a whopping 16 years before the original six era officially began. With 31 teams in the NHL since the Vegas Golden Knights burst onto the scene in 2017 and league parity at an all-time high, the Hart Trophy race has never been more exciting.

We’ll be tracking all the odds available at online sportsbooks all year, providing you with coverage on how notable players’ odds to win the Hart fluctuate throughout the season.

Taylor Hall won the Hart Trophy in 2018 for his heroic performance that willed the New Jersey Devils into a playoff position after a five-year absence, reclaiming his place among hockey’s elite after several consecutive disappointing and injury-riddled seasons.

Hall capturing the Hart was a nearly unprecedented surprise to both hockey media and fans alike, as he wasn’t even on the board when bookmakers opened Hart Trophy odds at the beginning of the 2017-2018 NHL campaign. Will there be another astonishing upset for the Hart Trophy in 2019?

NHL Hart Trophy Top 5 Contenders (February 5th, 2018)

2019 Hart Trophy Winner: Implied Probability

Conor McDavid, despite Edmonton’s struggles, is the de facto favorite to win the Hart Trophy. Edmonton isn’t likely the make the playoffs, but McDavid should still be regarded as the likely winning. Its harder to even conceptualize the dire straights Edmonton would be in without McDavid, given how much of disaster they currently are. He’s currently on pace for 122 points, which at 1.49 PTS/G is by far the highest of his career.

That being said, look out for Nikita Kucherov. He was the fastest player to 70 points in nearly 30 years, and he’s already potted 80 points despite having only played 52 games. At average odds of +275, he wouldn’t be a bad value bet given that the Hart race is essentially toss up between him and McDavid at this point.

There’s a slim chance that Johnny Gaudreau steals the Hart away from one of those two, but we wouldn’t consider it likely. It’s tough to bet against McDavid and Kucherov’s body of work.

NHL Hart Trophy Trends to Consider

• There are no goaltenders or defensemen with available odds, and no non-forward has won the Hart in the last 15 years with the sole exception of Carey Price in 2014-2015. A forward will almost assuredly win the Hart this year.
• It’s almost impossible for players to win the Hart Trophy if their teams don’t make the playoffs. It hasn’t happened since Mario Lemieux won the trophy in 1988 and only four times in this history of the league. McDavid’s chances of winning suggest that this year may prove to be an exception to this trend.
• The player who wins the Hart will likely lead the league in either goals, points, or both. The only two post-lockout exceptions to this rule are Taylor Hall in 2018 and Carey Price in 2015.
• Hockey writers not only focus on larger market teams when they cast their votes, but they tend to vote for players in the Eastern Conference (the majority of hockey media leaves on the East Coast, and apparently they all have early bedtimes).  In the post-lockout era, 9 out of 13 Hart Trophy winners have played in the East.

2019 Hart Trophy Odds for Players on Canadian Teams

With 7 players out of the 35 represented on the board, Canadian teams are home to a lot of top-flight talent this season. While McDavid remains the league-wide favorite, Johnny Gaudreau isn’t a bad bet at +1000.

2019 Hart Trophy Odds for Previous Winners

We might sound like a broken record at this point, but we really can’t overemphasize that there’s a reason Connor McDavid is at the top of so many lists, and why he gets such fanfare. He’s scary good.

2019 Hart Trophy Odds for Eastern Conference Players

Three out of the top five contenders for the Hart Trophy play in the Eastern Conference. If McDavid misses any significant time to injury, it’s a safe bet that the winner hail from an Eastern team.

2019 Hart Trophy Odds for Western Conference Players

There are 18 skaters in the West on the board for the Hart Trophy vs. 16 in the East, but many of them are major long shots. For example, we’d put the chances of either 35-year old Ilya Kovalchuk, declining Joe Pavelski, and Dallas’ third-best forward in Alexander Radulov at about as close to 0% as humanly possible.

 Last 10 Hart Trophy Winners

The median age of Hart Trophy winners in the last 10 years is 28. The youngest winner over the last 10 years is Connor McDavid, who was only 20 when he won the Hart in 2016.

 Players with Multiple Hart Trophies