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  • Who are the top contenders for the 2019 NHL Hart Trophy?
  • Look at odds for individual players in addition league-wide trends from past years
  • Track and visualize how odds fluctuate throughout the 2018-19 NHL campaign

The Professional Hockey Writers’ Association has awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy to the league’s most valuable player since 1926, a whopping 16 years before the original six era officially began. With 31 teams in the NHL since the Vegas Golden Knights burst onto the scene in 2017 and league parity at an all-time high, the Hart Trophy race has never been more exciting.

We’ll be tracking all the odds available at online sportsbooks all year, providing you with coverage on how notable players’ odds to win the Hart fluctuate throughout the season.

Taylor Hall won the Hart Trophy in 2018 for his heroic performance that willed the New Jersey Devils into a playoff position after a five-year absence, reclaiming his place among hockey’s elite after several consecutive disappointing and injury-riddled seasons.

Hall capturing the Hart was a nearly unprecedented surprise to both hockey media and fans alike, as he wasn’t even on the board when bookmakers opened Hart Trophy odds at the beginning of the 2017-2018 NHL campaign. Will there be another astonishing upset for the Hart Trophy in 2019?

2019 Hart Trophy Winner: Implied Probabilty

 

NHL Hart Trophy Top 5 Contenders (October 1st, 2018)

Player Bovada Odds (10/1/2018)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) +300
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins) +700
John Tavares (Toronto Maple Leafs) +1000
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) +1000
Alexander Ovechkin (Washington Capitals) +1200

Heading into his fourth season, there’s little doubt that Connor McDavid is the de facto favorite to win the Hart this year. He led the NHL in points by a fairly wide margin last year, and there’s little doubt that he would have easily won last year if Edmonton had squeaked into the playoffs.

That being said, look out for Auston Matthews. He’s had an unbelievable start to the season, scoring an astounding 9 goals and 12 points in his first five games. He probably won’t score 147 goals or continue to shoot at 52.9% (as he is at the time of writing), but there’s no question he’s arrived as a player. Missing a month of action won’t help his chances, but its not impossible he’d still win.

Matthews isn’t better than McDavid yet, but he’s no firmly in the conversation for the Hart, and will be for many years to come.

 

 

NHL Hart Trophy Trends to Consider

  • There are no goaltenders or defensemen with available odds, and no non-forward has won the Hart in the last 15 years with the sole exception of Carey Price in 2014-2015. A forward will almost assuredly win the Hart this year.
  • It’s almost impossible for players to win the Hart Trophy if their teams don’t make the playoffs. It hasn’t happened since Mario Lemieux won the trophy in 1988 and only four times in this history of the league.
  • The player who wins the Hart will likely lead the league in either goals, points, or both. The only two post-lockout exceptions to this rule are Taylor Hall in 2018 and Carey Price in 2015.
  • Hockey writers not only focus on larger market teams when they cast their votes, but they tend to vote for players in the Eastern Conference (the majority of hockey media leaves on the East Coast, and apparently they all have early bedtimes).  In the post-lockout era, 9 out of 13 Hart Trophy winners have played in the East.

 

2019 Hart Trophy Odds For Players on Canadian Teams

With 7 players out of the 35 represented on the board, Canadian teams are home to a lot of top-flight talent this season. While McDavid remains the league-wide favorite, Winnipeg Jets sniper Patrick Laine makes for an intriguing option at +4000.

 

2019 Hart Trophy Odds for Previous Winners

We might sound like a broken record at this point, but we really can’t overemphasize that there’s a reason Connor McDavid is at the top of so many lists, and why he gets such fanfare. He’s scary good.

 

2019 Hart Trophy Odds for Eastern Conference Players

Four out of the top five contenders for the Hart Trophy play in the Eastern Conference. If McDavid misses any significant time to injury, it’s a safe bet that the winner hail from an Eastern team. If McDavid goes down, its probably going to be Matthews.

 

2019 Hart Trophy Odds for Western Conference Players

There are 18 skaters in the West on the board for the Hart Trophy vs. 16 in the East, but many of them are major long shots. For example, we’d put the chances of either 35-year old Ilya Kovalchuk, declining Joe Pavelski, and Dallas’ third-best forward in Alexander Radulov at about as close to 0% as humanly possible.

 

 Last 10 Hart Trophy Winners

Year Player Goals Assists Points Age
2017-2018 Taylor Hall (New Jersey Devils) 39 54 93 26
2016-2017 Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers) 30 70 100 20
2015-2016 Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks) 46 60 106 27
2014-2015 Cary Price (Montreal Canadiens) N/A (1.96 GAA) N/A (.933 SV%) N/A (44 W) 27
2013-2014 Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins) 36 68 104 26
2012-2013 Alex Ovechkin (Washinton Capitals) 32 24 56 27
2011-2012 Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins) 50 59 109 25
2010-2011 Corey Perry (Anaheim Ducks) 50 48 98 25
2009-2010 Henrik Sedin (Vancouver Canucks) 29 83 112 29
2008-2009 Alexander Ovechkin (Washington Capitals) 56 54 110 23

The median age of Hart Trophy winners in the last 10 years is 28. The youngest winner over the last 10 years is Connor McDavid, who was only 20 when he won the Hart in 2016.

 

 Players With Multiple Hart Trophies

Player Hart Trophies Years
Wayne Gretzky 9 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1989
Gordie Howe 6 1952, 1953, 1957, 1958, 1960, 1963
Eddie Shore 4 1933, 1935, 1936, 1938
Bobby Clarke 3 1973, 1975, 1976
Mario Lemieux 3 1988, 1993, 1996
Howie Morenz 3 1928, 1931, 1932
Bobby Orr 3 1970, 1971, 1972
Alexander Ovechkin 3 2007, 2008, 2013
Sidney Crosby 2 2007, 2014
Dominik Hasek 2 1997, 1998
Phil Esposito 2 1969, 1974
Mark Messier 2 1990, 1992