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Election Odds – How Low Will Trump Go in 3rd Debate?

Larry Houser

by Larry Houser in Entertainment

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Donald Trump began his campaign for president by promising to build a wall.

He appears to have instead built a ceiling.

Poll after poll has shown that misogynistic reality TV star has been unable to crack the 40-percent mark nationally, and his burn-down-the-house comments as the campaign reaches its final stages are a pretty good indication that his hard-core base won’t be expanding at any significant rate. His performance in the first debate certainly didn’t broaden his tent. (Phrasing?)

Maybe Trump’s strategy is to poison the well so much that he can depress turnout and squeak into the White House in a low-turnout election. Maybe in desperation he wants to fly a Kamikaze mission into Clinton’s battleship and destroy any chance she has of healing wounds over the next four years.

How Trump plans to punctuate the final 21 days of the craziest presidential campaign in history, no one really knows – probably, least of all, the candidate himself. The wall is mentioned now only briefly in speeches as he lashes out at Clinton, the media, “weak-kneed” Republicans, and anyone else he views as the enemy.

On Wednesday night in Las Vegas, Trump will get another 90 minutes to take direct shots at his opponent. Clinton will smile a lot in Debate No. 3, and talk about building bridges and not walls. But mostly she will just stay out of the fray and obey Rule #1 in politics: never interfere with your opponent when he’s in the process of committing suicide.


Final Presidential Debate Odds

Odds on which candidate will get a bigger bump in the Quinnipiac poll that directly follows the debate

Trump: 2/5

Clinton: 5/2

The ultra-cautious Clinton will be content to counter-punch and is unlikely to do anything dramatic that could damage the leads she has built in the battleground states that Trump has to win.

Odds  moderator Chris Wallace will ask Trump a question specifically about Jessica Leeds and/or Rachel Crooks: 4/1

Trump is on semi-friendly ground with Wallace, a Fox News host by day. Wallace will have to ask about the women who have accused Trump of assault, but he can take the sting out of the question by not mentioning any of them by name. Clinton may have to do her own dirty work.

O/U on the number of times Clinton mentions any of Trump’s sexual harassment accusers by name: 5.5

And dirty work, she shall do.

Odds on the color of Trump’s tie

Red: 9/5

Blue: 2/1

Green: 5/1

Yellow: 7/1

Orange: 200/1

Field (including striped): 20/1

You’d think orange would have shorter odds, given how well it would bring out his (un)natural tones.

Odds on the color of Clinton’s pantsuit

Blue: 4/1

Black: 5/1

White: 5/1

Multi-colored: 7/1

Red: 16/1

Field: 4/1

She won’t want to draw any attention away from Trump and his seppuku act. She’ll wear something safe – maybe even with reflectors.

Odds that the Republican Party drops Trump as its nominee before the election: 150/1

It’s not going to happen. But if it does …

If the GOP does drop Trump, odds on who would replace him as the nominee:

Mike Pence: 1/50

Paul Ryan: 75/1

Ted Cruz: 125/1

Rudy Giuliani: 175/1

Marco Rubio: 175/1

Trump says he will never quit the race. He might actually be telling the truth for once.

Odds on how many times the word “Wikileaks” will be said during the debate

Over 15: 2/1

0-2:  9/2

3-6: 4/1

7-10: 6/1

11 to 15: 6/1

Odds increase with Wallace as the moderator. The Julian Assange email drop is really Trump’s only remaining bullet. He’ll bang that drum early and often.

Odds the Clinton camp questions the impartiality of moderator Chris Wallace: 7/4

Trump is ranting about a “fixed” election, and Clinton is fine with that being the main storyline headed into the debate. It makes Trump appear whiney. If Clinton starts her own whinging, she’d be taking a wrong turn off the high-road.

O/U on number of times Trump will say that the election has been “rigged”: 5.5


Photo credit: Caricature by DonkeyHotey [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.

 

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