Film Odds: Franchises Panic After 4th of July Slump

The July Fourth holiday lacked fireworks at the box office, with many of Hollywood’s franchises producing underwhelming numbers compared to previous years. Sequels and reboots have been a steady source of income for the major studios recently, but with slumping domestic interest, some of our favorite long-running franchises may soon face the chopping block.

The growing Chinese market has buoyed ailing domestic figures (at the expense of the Chinese film industry) and it looks like the studios will have to rely increasingly on the international market for years to come.

Will the summer slump prompt the studios to kill a few of its darlings, or at the very least, put them on hold? Let’s set the odds!

Franchise Odds

Odds the following franchises don’t release another installment by 2020:

The Mummy: 1/2

The Mummy reboot, starring Tom Cruise, was pummelled by critics and has pulled in lower-than-expected numbers at the box office. Still, with almost 80% of sales coming from the foreign market, The Mummy has been able to turn a sweet profit.

Newly-formed production company Dark Universe has quite a few reboot ideas in the works — Frankenstein, Bride of Frankenstein, Dracula, Phantom of the Opera, Hunchback of Notre Dame — so it’s unlikely they’ll return to The Mummy in the near future.

Pirates of the Caribbean: 1/1

The swashbuckler franchise released its fifth installment this year with Dead Men Tell No Tales, and the numbers didn’t live up to their lofty standards. It was rumored Pirates 5 would be the last of the franchise, but Disney has left the door open for a sixth.

The franchise was slow to release their last few flicks, so even if there’s more to come, there could be a lot of waiting involved.

Alien: 4/1

After adjusting for inflation, Alien: Covenant was outperformed by every other film in the Alien franchise apart from the forgettable Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem. That hasn’t deterred director Ridley Scott, though. It’s been announced that two more films will be released in the coming years that will complete the saga. 

Planet of the Apes: 19/1

War for the Planet of the Apes, the third installment in the Planet of the Apes reboot series, will be released later this month. It received some glowing reviews in pre-release, which has prompted an optimistic opening week estimate of $60 million.

The fourth installment is already being developed, so we’re clearly not finished with the weapon-wielding apes just yet.

Transformers: 40/1

The Last Knight had the worst box office opening ever for the franchise. However, thanks to the Chinese market, it has still been able to turn a nice profit. Michael Bay has stated The Last Knight will be his last Transformer flick, marking the end of an era. But make no mistake, this isn’t the end of the franchise.

A Bumblebee spin-off is already underway, scheduled for a 2018 release.