Movie Odds: The Last Night for Transformers Franchise?

Transformers: The Last Knight is off to a rough start at the box-office. The fifth installment of the profitable Transformers franchise is expected to rake in just $60 million over its first five days. That may seem like a lot, but it’s the worst-ever opening for a Transformers flick. The previous installment, Transformers: Age of Extinction, broke $100 million after just three days.

It’s been a hit-and-miss year for popular movie franchises. The new Pirates of the Caribbean and Alien movies also fell flat, while The Fast and the Furious and Cars continued to race ahead, and Guardians of the Galaxy raised the bar high with Vol. 2.

Will The Last Knight be able to stage a comeback? With an ever-growing international market, low domestic numbers aren’t the death knell they used to be. Let’s look into our crystal ball for the future of the billion-dollar franchise.

Transformers Odds

Odds The Last Knight is the lowest-grossing movie in the franchise: 1/2

Domestically, it looks like The Last Knight will close with some pretty dismal numbers. But the franchise is relying more and more on the international market, especially China. While Americans are growing a little bored of the shape-shifting robots, the Chinese can’t get enough.

Transformers 5 pulled in a whopping $41 million in China on its opening day. It should go on to do pretty well overseas, overall. It will at least give the first two flicks a run for their money, so to speak.

Odds The Last Knight turns a profit: 1/3

The Last Knight had a budget of $217 million, the highest so far. The Transformers franchise is insanely profitable, raking in over $3.7 billion (yes, billion!) over four movies. While the most recent installment hasn’t been a hit, it’ll probably recover the $217 million when you factor in international revenue.

Odds Mark Wahlberg returns for another Transformers movie: 3/1

Mark Wahlberg replaced Shia Labeouf in Age of Extinction, which was wildly successful. But with the flop of The Last Knight, perhaps Paramount Pictures will consider casting another lead. They might have to since Wahlberg said he’s leaving the franchise. Even if he reneges on that statement, with Paramount planning a Bumblebee spinoff, the studio may be looking to take the franchise in a new direction that doesn’t involve Marky Mark.

Odds to play lead role in Bumblebee spinoff

• Hailee Steinfeld: 1/2
• a man: 9/1

The latest rumors have Oscar-nominated Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit, The Edge of Seventeen) playing the lead in the Bumblebee movie. But it’s still in pre-production and things can shift quickly in Hollywood, just ask Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. The franchise could certainly use a strong female lead, whether it’s lucky enough to land Steinfeld or not.

Odds Michael Bay directs another Transformers movie: 1/1

It’s hard to separate Transformers from Michael Bay, who’s been with the franchise from the start. He’s found his thing and stuck to it: high-budget, high-profit movies that audiences love and critics hate. But in a franchise worth billions of dollars, no one is indispensable, and Bay has stated that The Last Knight is his final Transformers project. 

Travis Knight has been tapped to direct the Bumblebee spin-off, and all we know about Transformers 6 is that it is due for 2019.