Movie Odds: Can Ron Howard Pilot Han Solo To Success?

Lucasfilm and directing duo Phil Lord and Christopher Miller have filed for divorce, citing creative differences. Lord and Miller, of 21 Jump Street and Lego Movie fame, landed one of the most lucrative gigs in Hollywood — directing a Star Wars flick. Until Tuesday, they were at the helm of an untitled Han Solo spin-off movie.

They wanted to do things a little differently and inject the film with some of their trademark humor. Unfortunately, that vision wasn’t shared by the higher-ups at Lucasfilm and the pair of directors were fired.

Lucasfilm has tapped Ron Howard to take over as director. He’ll have to take the mostly-finished product left by Lord and Miller, and mold it into something that works for him and the studio.

All this raises a lot of questions. How will the movie turn out? Will it still be released on time? How will it perform at the box-office?

Let’s put some numbers to those questions.

Han Solo Spinoff Odds

Odds Ron Howard is fired or quits: 20/1

Ron Howard has a tough task ahead of him. Lord and Miller shot the film they wanted to make, and now it’s Howard’s job to pick up where they left off. If it all breaks down again, that would be a disaster for everyone involved. Surely, Howard knows what he’s getting into and shares Lucasfilm’s vision.

Odds the movie is released by May 2018: 2/1

The film only has a few more weeks of shooting, but it’s unknown how much of it needs to be reworked. If Lord and Miller’s product was drastically different from what Lucasfilm envisioned — which seems likely, given the firing — then it may take some serious tinkering before it’s ready for the silver screen.

With just under a year until the scheduled release date, there’s a good chance it’ll be delayed.

Odds Phil Lord and Christopher Miller receive director credit: 1/1

If the movie receives a directing award, who receives the prize? Lord and Miller did the heavy lifting, but Howard is the one who crossed the finish line. It’s very likely that Lord and Miller will receive some kind of recognition, but it’s a toss-up whether they’ll be listed side-by-side with Howard as directors.

Odds Han Solo spinoff outperforms Rogue One at the box office: 2/1

Rogue One raked in just over a billion dollars worldwide last year, making it the second-highest grossing movie of the year and the 22nd-highest of all time. That’s a tough act to follow. Anything that comes from the Star Wars franchise will be financially successful, but previous installments didn’t have hiccups quite like this.

It’s been awhile since Ron Howard produced a big hit. If he can find a way to work his magic, this could be huge for him and Lucasfilm.