Golden Globes 2017: Odds and Predictions

The Golden Globes (Jan. 8, 2017) are like the Academy Awards’ younger step-brother. You like him, sure, but nobody takes him too seriously.

We did our best to predict this year’s nominees, but remember, this is the show that gave the little golden trophy to The Martian for best comedy. It was a great movie, but wasn’t exactly a laugh-a-minute type of flick. So understand what we’re dealing with here.

The Globes thinks of itself as Oscar foreshadowing. But that couldn’t be further from the truth. They gave a trophy to Sweeney Todd, and one time, passed over Frances McDormand’s unforgettable performance in Fargo for Madonna in Evita. But don’t cry for her, Argentina; McDormand won an Oscar for the role a month later.

The fact of the matter is, the Globes fall somewhere between the high-brow (think Oscars) and low-brow (think MTV Movie Awards) shows. While celebrities show up dressed to the nines to schmooze and drink, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) often overlooks the great films that are hitting them square in the face.

Alas, the show must go on, so we need to predict the highly unpredictable. In order to forecast who is going to get a golden pat on the back, we either need to figure out which studio paid the most or which film is the least likely to win an Oscar. (Side note: the other problem I have with the Globes is the fact they group television in with films. These are two separate media that should be treated differently, and not jammed into one long-winded show.)

However, judging by these nominees, it appears the Globes is trying to clean up its image. Gone are useless nominations for The Tourist or Patch Adams, replaced by smaller films that would normally only get love at the BAFTAs or Independent Spirit Awards. So bravo to the elitists at the HFPA for finally recognizing quality movies. It only took you 74 tries.

Below are the nominees for the major categories along with the odds of winning. As I stated, it’s difficult to get into the mind of a bought-and-paid-for film critic. And the winners are….

2017 Golden Globe Odds and Predictions

Motion Picture Awards

It’s great to see films like Hell or High Water and Manchester by the Sea get some well-deserved nominations. But a lot of the focus will likely be on La La Land. It not only got seven nominations, but could actually sweep every single one.

One thing to keep in mind is politics. You may remember last year’s protest of “Oscars so white” and people complaining about a lack of diversity in awards shows of this calibre. That could translate to more votes this year towards films like Moonlight. But don’t get me wrong, it most definitely deserves a nomination.

Those same politics could also mean bad news for Mel Gibson who is up for best director for Hacksaw Ridge. Although he deserves to be nominated, I don’t think Hollywood is ready to forgive just yet.

It’s nice to see Deadpool nominated in the comedy category. Imagine that: one of the best comedies of the year up for the comedy award.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

• Manchester By The Sea: 2/1
• Lion: 3/1
• Moonlight: 4/1
• Hell or Hight Water: 17/3
• Hacksaw Ridge: 15/1

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

• La La Land: 3/2
• 20th Century Women: 3/1
• Florence Foster Jenkins: 17/3
• Sing Street: 9/1
• Deadpool: 10/1

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land: 2/1
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight: 2/1
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea: 5/1
• Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge: 9/1
• Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals: 15/1

Best Actor – Motion picture Drama

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea: 3/2
• Denzel Washington – Fences: 4/1
• Joel Edgerton – Loving: 5/1
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge: 5/1
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic: 15/1

Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy

• Ryan Gosling – La La Land: 3/2
• Colin Farrell – The Lobster: 4/1
• Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool: 5/1
• Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins: 5/1
• Jonah Hill – War Dogs: 15/1

Best Actress – Motion Picture Drama

• Natalie Portman – Jackie: 3/1
• Isabell Huppert – Elle: 3/1
• Amy Adams – Arrival: 4/1
• Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane: 4/1
• Ruth Negga – Loving: 9/1

Best Actress – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy

• Emma Stone – La La Land: 3/2
• Annette Bening – 20th Century Women: 3/1
• Meryl Street – Florence Foster Jenkins: 3/1
• Hailee Steinfeld – The Ege of Seventeen: 19/1
• Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply: 19/1

Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight: 3/1
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water: 3/1
• Dev Patel – Lion: 4/1
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals: 4/1
• Simon Heloberg – Florence Foster Jenkins: 9/1

Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture

• Viola Davis – Fences: 1/1
• Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea: 2/1
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight: 15/1
• Nicole Kidman – Lion: 19/1
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures: 20/1

Best Screenplay

• Manchester by the Sea: 3/1
• La La Land: 3/1
• Hell or High Water: 4/1
• Moonlight: 4/1
• Nocturnal Animals: 9/1

Best Original Score

• La La Land: 2/3
• Lion: 4/1
• Moonlight: 9/1
• Arrival: 19/1
• Hidden Figures: 25/1

Best Original Song

• City of Stars – La La Land: 3/1
• Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls: 4/1
• How Far I’ll Go – Moana: 4/1
• Faith – Sing: 5/1
• Gold – Gold: 5/1

Best Foreign Language Film

• Toni Erdmann: 2/1
• Elle: 3/1
• The Salesman: 4/1
• Neruda: 9/1
• Divines: 9/1

Best Animated Feature Film

• Zootopia: 3/2
• Kubo and the Two Strings: 2/1
• Moana: 17/3
• Sing: 15/1
• My Life as a Zucchini: 20/1

Television Awards

It’s The People v. O.J. Simpson vs. everyone else in the mini-series/TV movie categories. Dramas Westworld and Stranger Things also got some deserved love, while Atlanta leads the pack for comedies.

Game of Thrones’s Kit Harrington is the most talked about snub.

Best Drama Series

• Westworld: 2/1
• Stranger Things: 3/1
• Game of Thrones: 3/1
• The Crown: 9/1
• This Is Us: 15/1

Best Comedy Series

• Atlanta: 2/1
• Black-ish: 3/1
• Veep: 3/1
• Transparent: 9/1
• Mozart in the Jungle:15/1

Best Actor in a Television Drama Series

• Rami Malek – Mr. Robot: 2/3
• Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan: 17/3
• Matthew Rhys – The Americans: 9/1
• Billy Bob Thornton – Goliath: 10/1
• Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul: 20/1

Best Actor in a Television Comedy Series

• Donald Glover – Atlanta: 2/1
• Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent: 3/1
• Gael Garcia Bernal – Mozart in the Jungle: 4/1
• Anthony Anderson – Black-ish: 17/3
• Nick Nolte – Graves: 15/1

Best Actress in a Television Drama Series

• Claire Foy – The Crown: 3/1
• Winona Ryder – Stranger Things: 3/1
• Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld: 3/1
• Keri Russell – The Americans: 4/1
• Caitriona Balfe – Outlander: 19/1

Best Actress in a Television Comedy Series

• Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep: 3/1
• Sarah Jessica Parker – Divorce: 3/1
• Issa Rae – Insecure: 4/1
• Rachel Bloom – Crazy Ex-Girlfriend: 5/1
• Gina Rodriquez – Jane the Virgin: 7/1

Best Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

• The People v. O.J. Simpson: 1/1
• The Night Manager: 3/1
• The Night Of: 17/3
• American Crime: 15/1
• The Dresser: 30/1

Best Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

• Courtney B. Vance – The People v. O.J. Simpson: 1/1
• Tom Hiddleston – The Night Manager: 4/1
• Riz Ahmed – The Night Of: 4/1
• John Turturro – The Night Of: 15/1
• Bryan Cranston – All the Way: 30/1

Best Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

• Sarah Paulson – The People v. O.J. Simpson: 2/3
• Riley Keough – The Girlfriend Experience: 17/3
• Felicity Huffman – American Crime: 9/1
• Kerry Washington – Confirmation: 10/1
• Charlotte Rampling – London Spy: 20/1

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Sterling K. Brown – The People v. O.J. Simpson: 3/1
• Christian Slater – Mr. Robot: 4/1
• Hugh Laurie – The Night Manager: 4/1
• John Lithgow – The Crown: 4/1
• John Travolta – The People v. O.J. Simpson: 17/3

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Thandie Newton – Westworld: 2/1
• Lena Headey – Game of Thrones: 2/1
• Chrissy Metz – This Is Us: 3/1
• Mandy Moore – This Is Us: 3/1
• Olivia Colman – The Night Manager: 9/1

The Golden Globes air January 8th.

Feature Photo Credit: Lionsgate Films