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Late Night Odds: Fallon Closes in on Colbert

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Entertainment

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Jimmy Fallon getting political
Photo credit: Daniel Oines [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

“It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS.”

Those were the words of CBS president Les Moonves when asked about Donald Trump’s candidacy back in February of last year. He added: “I’ve never seen anything like this, and this is going to be a very good year for us. Sorry. It’s a terrible thing to say. But, bring it on, Donald. Keep going!”

Well, it all turned out to be true. It hasn’t been good for America, but has been damn good for CBS. It’s been especially good for Stephen Colbert, host of CBS’s The Late Show.

When Colbert took over from David Letterman in September of 2015, Jimmy Fallon, host of NBC’s The Tonight Show, was the undisputed king of late night television. And for over a year, he mopped the floor with Colbert when it came to viewership numbers.

But when Donald Trump won the presidency, the tides began to shift. And by the time of Trump’s inauguration, Colbert had already experienced his first week on top. By March, Colbert’s lead had grown so much that Fallon was forced to make a few changes in order to compete.

It’s hard to say how effective those changes were, but in the week of April 24th, Jimmy Fallon came within an inch of Colbert, falling short by only 67,000 viewers (a margin of just 2%). After a three-month lead, Colbert finds himself neck-and-neck with his late night rival.

What could have caused this?

Perhaps viewers are suffering from “Trump fatigue”, and would rather enjoy the wholesome, family-friendly comedy of Jimmy Fallon. Or maybe Fallon’s attempt to become “more political” was actually a success.

Or maybe this is just a one-off event and Colbert will continue to dominate as he has for the last three months.

In order for Colbert to close the season with the higher average viewership, he has to continue beating Fallon by a significant margin to make up for his early-season slump. He’s off to a rocky start, though. In a recent monologue, he landed himself in hot water after making the following quip about Trump: “The only thing your mouth is good for is being Vladimir Putin’s c–k holster!”

We’ll have to wait and see whether anything comes of it. For now, Fallon is back in the fight and the battle for late night rages on. Can Fallon reclaim the crown, or will Colbert hold the lead? Here are the odds.


Late Night TV Odds

Odds to close out 2017 with the highest viewership:

Stephen Colbert: 19/31

Jimmy Fallon: 31/19

Odds Jimmy Fallon leads at least one week in May: 1/1

O/U for average rating for 2017:

Stephen Colbert: 3.7

Jimmy Fallon: 3.5

Odds Trump calls for Colbert’s resignation: 9/1

Odds Colbert apologizes for his recent remark: 13/7

Odds host is fired or resigns by end of 2017:

Stephen Colbert: 50/1

Jimmy Fallon: 40/1

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