MayMac Odds: an In-Depth Look at the Final Numbers

By Andrius Petrucenia [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Ready for a final look at the odds before Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor touch gloves on August 26th?

We’ve come a long way since the fight was announced in May. Initially the bookmakers scoffed at the fight, reasoning that there would be very little interest in betting on the spectacle since it pitted one of the best pugilists ever against a man with zero professional boxing matches on his resume.

But boy were they wrong. Money has been pouring in left, right, and center — and overwhelmingly in favor of the underdog McGregor!

All that money has moved the line dramatically towards McGregor, yet most bettors keep backing the MMA star. We covered the odds back in June, but that feels like a lifetime ago. It’s time to update the numbers!

 


PRE-FIGHT PROPS

Odds the fight doesn’t take place on Aug 26: 35/1 [Previously 9/1]

Once upon a time, this fight was a fantasy, something you and your buddies debated over Twizzlers and Irish stew. Then actual contracts were signed, and now we’re two days away! The final hurdle to clear is the weigh-in, which will take place on Friday afternoon. Mayweather will have no trouble making 154 pounds, and McGregor is expected to make the cut. Even if McGregor misses weight, it won’t be enough to call off the fight.

Unless one of the fighters suffers an injury within the next few days, which would be extremely rare at this point in their preparation, the fight will go ahead. 

Odds the fight breaks boxing record for PPV buys (4.6 million): 1/2 [Previously 1/4]

Ticket sales at the T-Mobile Arena have been lower than expected and it’s unlikely that the event will sell out. That’s mostly due to the absurd pricing, but it’s still some cause for concern. At $100 a pop (for high definition), the pay-per-view cost isn’t cheap either. The high prices could drive down the PPV numbers.

Still, given the hype surrounding the fight and its broad appeal (which stretches well beyond traditional boxing fans), it’s likely that the event will pull in a record number of buys.

Over/Under closing odds at Westgate on Aug. 26 [Previously McGregor +650]

  • Conor McGregor: +350
  • Floyd Mayweather: -400

When you take the fight at face value — the most successful fighter of his generation (and arguably of all time) against an MMA fighter making his boxing debut — you would need an absurd payoff in order to put money on the MMA fighter.

But bettors are convinced that McGregor has a shot. (They’re mistaking his ability to win a press conference for his ability to win a boxing match.) In fact, 95% of bets placed have been in favor of the Irishman. The betting is so lopsided that a McGregor win could put a decent chunk of Vegas out of business. 

Over/under largest reported bet in Las Vegas on Mayweather: $1,000,000

So far $880,000 is the largest bet placed on Mayweather. But as the line shifts in McGregor’s favor, we’ll start seeing sharps pour more and more on “Money.” When the fight was announced, few would have predicted line to be this generous. Mayweather has promised to put money on himself, so he could even end up placing the largest bet.

Over/under largest reported bet in Las Vegas on McGregor: $80,000

The biggest (known) bet on McGregor to date is $75,000. While McGregor is the fan favorite, the high-rollers are still backing Mayweather. The line is expected to continue to shift towards McGregor, so if you were thinking of backing him, you should have done so a while ago.

Odds Mayweather posts a photo of a betting ticket on himself before the fight: 1/4

If Mayweather is as confident as he says he is, then he should definitely be placing money on himself. Rumor has it that he’s considering a whopping $5,000,000 bet on himselfIf we take Mayweather at his word, then expect to see the ticket: “You guys will see the betting ticket. I can’t really say what’s the number, but I will bet something heavy. Will it be my biggest ever? Most likely.” He has a history of posting betting-ticket photos online, also, but usually it’s after they’ve become winners. 

Over/under get-in ticket price on StubHub as of 12:01 AM ET, Saturday, Aug 26: $1,500

Over/under highest ticket price on StubHub as of 12:01 AM ET, Saturday, Aug 26: $50,000

One eager spectator has splashed $24,000 on a single ticket, which is a lot but hardly the most expensive ticket available. Ringside tickets are going for north of $100,000 (but not on StubHub). At the moment, the cheapest seats available are going for $1,260 — they won’t be around for long.


IN-FIGHT PROPS

The real, honest-to-God odds to win the fight

  • Mayweather: -2500 
  • McGregor: +2500

Call me a cynical curmudgeon, but I’m just not buying into the hype. The opening odds, which had Mayweather at -2500, look about right, giving Mayweather a roughly 96% win probability. Yeah, McGregor has a vicious straight left. Yeah, McGregor is an unorthodox fighter and tough to prepare for. Yeah, they’re wearing eight-ounce gloves. And Yeah, Mayweather is 40 years old.

I’m still not convinced. If the likes of Canelo Alvarez, Manny Pacquiao, Miguel Cotto, and Oscar De La Hoya couldn’t make a dent in Mayweather, then McGregor’s chances are slim to none. 

Over/Under number of rounds: 5.5

If McGregor is going to make an impact, it has to be in the opening few rounds when he’s at his strongest and freshest. On the Mayweather side, if he allows the fight to enter the final rounds, many will consider it an embarrassment for the greatest boxer of his generation. That might not inspire him to deviate from a cautious game-plan, though. He didn’t run his record to 49-0 by taking unnecessary risks. Plus Mayweather may not have the power to put the larger McGregor away.

Still, the odds of an early-round stoppage by the referee are decent given the sheer disparity in talent between the two.

Odds McGregor does not land a single punch per CompuBox: 7/1

If some of the best boxers in the world have struggled to land a significant punch against Mayweather, then what chance does McGregor have?

Some boxing purists are predicting that McGregor will fail to land a single punch against Mayweather. That includes insignificant punches and pitter-patters. It’s one thing to believe McGregor won’t land a single significant strike, but nothing at all? That would be one boring fight…

Odds McGregor breaches the fight contract by throwing a kick, elbow, or knee: 19/1

The chances of a frustrated McGregor lashing out with a kick, knee, or elbow would be the perfect way to cap off the spectacle, but it’s extremely unlikely. There are serious penalties in place preventing the MMA fighter from deviating from the Marquess of Queensberry rules. 

Odds McGregor wrestles Mayweather to the ground: 15/1

Being the bigger fighter, McGregor has an advantage in the clinch. An MMA-style takedown is out of the question, but an overly aggressive hold that brings Mayweather to the ground or an opportunistic push-down is definitely a possibility.


POST-FIGHT PROPS

Odds the winner agrees to a rematch before the end of the night (12 AM ET): 5/1

If McGregor wins, then there’s no doubt the two will be eager for a rematch. even if the fight is closer than expected, both fighters will probably be open to making a few hundred million dollars once again. However, if the fight is a one-sided embarrassment in favor of Mayweather — which is by far the most likely outcome — there won’t be much demand for a sequel. 

Odds Mayweather’s in-ring interview includes the phrase …

  • “tougher than I [expected, thought, anticipated, etc.]”: 2/1
  • “worst opponent”: 11/1

Despite all the trash-talk and bad blood between the two, both fighters are generally quite respectful in victory. Besides, win or lose, both will receive a career payday after all is said and done. If Mayweather wins but McGregor exceeds expectations, I think we’ll see Mayweather paying his respects.