Midterm Elections: Bet on a Blue Wave in 2018?

This week, we learned that when forced to choose between a Democrat and an alleged pedophile, Alabamians will reluctantly pick the Democrat. Whether any other insights can be gleaned from this week’s special election in Alabama is still up for debate.

Was the election a referendum on Donald Trump and the Republican party, or just a simple rejection of an already unpopular (alleged) child molester? The answer is probably a combination of the two. Yes, Roy Moore was a uniquely unpopular candidate and lost a race that almost any other Republican would have won. But Donald Trump is also a uniquely unpopular president, with the lowest approval ratings of any president at this point in their presidency.

Even in deep-red Alabama, a state that hadn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 25 years and elected Trump by a margin of almost 30 points, recent polls found that only 48% of voters approve of the President.

The Republicans lost one of their safest Senate seats on Tuesday. After the newly-elected Doug Jones is sworn in, the Republicans will control a mere 51 seats, leaving them with just a one-seat majority. A third of the Senate and the entire House is up for reelection next year, which will give the Democrats a chance to take back control of Congress.

The President’s party typically underperforms during the midterms, and that’s especially true when the president is unpopular. Donald Trump has been consistently polling in the mid-30s and is showing no signs of gaining popularity, so it’s no wonder the Democrats are feeling energized right now.

Big wins in Virginia and now Alabama have left the Democrats feeling hopeful for a Blue Wave come November 6th, 2018. Ladbrokes has updated its odds, so let’s see where the value is.

Over/Under On Senate Seats The Republicans Hold After 2018 Midterms

Over 50: -150

Under 50: +175

Exactly 50: +800

A third of the Senate is up for grabs in 2018 and the Democrats only need to chip away two Republican seats in order to take over. Sounds easy, right?

Not so fast! Of the 33 Senate seats up for reelection, only eight are currently held by Republicans. The Dems need to poach at least two Republican seats and also successfully defend 26 of their own. If that’s not already hard enough, 10 of those 26 seats are from states that went to Trump in 2016. On the other side of the aisle, the Republicans are only defending one seat from a state that went to Clinton.

The Democrats have two clear targets for 2018: Dean Heller (Nevada) and Jeff Flake (Arizona). Nevada is one of the few swing states that went to Hillary in 2016 and Dean Heller is poorly positioned to defend the seat. The healthcare debacle significantly lowered his stock and he’s now loathed by Democrats and Republicans, alike. Jeff Flake’s approval ratings have plummeted so low that he’s chosen not to stand for reelection. His state of Arizona is looking increasingly purple these days and is ripe for a flipping.

Simply pinching seats in Arizona and Nevada won’t be enough, though. They’ll also have to hold onto a handful of seats deep in Trump territory. There’s Claire McCaskill’s seat in Missouri, a state Trump won by 19 points; Jon Tester’s seat in Montana, a state Trump carried by 20 points; and Joe Manchin in West Virginia, where Trump won by a whopping 42 points.

Steve Bannon has vowed to primary every Republican Senator save Ted Cruz in 2018, and if he’s successful and keeps backing candidates like Roy Moore, then the Democrats will actually have a decent shot at flipping the Senate. But until then, it’s a steep uphill battle for the Dems.

Pick: Over 50 (-150)

Odds To Hold The House Majority After 2018 Midterms

Democrats: -137

Republicans: +110

No Majority: +5000

All 435 House seats are up for grabs and the Democrats need a net gain of 24 in order to take control. That’s hardly an impossible task, but it’s a little more difficult than it seems. Sweeping the 2010 midterms allowed the GOP to gerrymander the House to high heaven. District lines have been drawn to favor Republicans and the Democrats now have to win the popular vote by a significant margin in order to win the necessary number of districts. To put that in context, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but only won 205 House districts.

Still, several forecasts favor the Democrats in 2018. Gerrymandering relies on slim but dependable margins, and a huge increase in voter turnout for the Democrats could sweep the meticulously drawn districts.

The Democrats need to gain 24 seats, and there are 23 seats held by Republicans in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. That’s a great starting point right there. On top of that, 25 Republicans have announced that they will be retiring from the House, compared to the 13 retiring Democrats. Even House leader Paul Ryan is eyeing the exits and may not stay past 2018.

The deck is stacked against the Democrats in both the Senate and House midterms, but the House offers them a wider path to victory. The momentum behind the Democrats coupled with Trump’s dismal ratings may be enough for them to flip the House.

Pick: Democrats (-137)