Bet on a Female President in 2020?

A caricature of Elizabeth Warren.
Elizabeth Warren 2020? Photo by Donkey Hotey (Flickr) [CC License].

Could 2020 be the year the United States elects its first female President?

As evidenced by the list, below, the cast of (legitimate) potential candidates is more diverse than elections past, and the Democratic party in particular has some very promising female prospects: Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Kirsten Gillibrand just to name a few. Will any of those able ladies succeed where Hillary Clinton could not?

It’s early in the election cycle yet and candidates won’t officially announce whether they are running any time soon. Nonetheless, Paddy Power currently has the following odds-list for the 2020 election, and there is some good early value on the board.

2020 Presidential Election Odds | Paddy Power

Elizabeth Warren (Democrat): 12/1

The anointed leader of progressive Democrats, Warren has repeatedly stated that she will not run for President, yet bookmakers have been listing her as the Democratic favorite for some time. If she runs in 2020, she’ll have a great shot at capturing the Democratic nomination. But her nationwide numbers aren’t great, so she may struggle in the general election.

Betting Advice: For now, betting on Warren at 12/1 (+1200) to become the next President is premature. She was pressured to run in 2016 and chose not to, and she could do the same in 2020. At least wait until she starts testing the political waters before putting your money down.

Kamala Harris (Democrat): 12/1

Kamala Harris made a splash after she grilled Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein over their roles in the firing of former FBI director James Comey. She’s aligned herself with the Democratic base, supporting Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” bill and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program (DACA).

Betting Advice: Harris is clearly positioning herself for a run in 2020 and her chances of winning the Democratic nomination are reasonable. However, she lacks name recognition and has somewhat faded into the background in recent months. Like with Warren, there’s little value in a Harris pick at 12/1 (+1200) at this point in time.

Kirsten Gillibrand (Democrat): 16/1

Gillibrand started her political career as a Clinton protege. She worked on Hillary’s Senate campaign in 2000, and later took over Clinton’s seat when the former First Lady became Barack Obama’s Secretary of State. However, she’s since distanced herself from the Clintons following Hillary’s devastating loss in 2016. The 2020 hopeful even went as far as saying that Bill Clinton should have resigned during the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

Once a conservative Democrat, Gillibrand has since tacked leftward. Like Warren and Harris, she supports Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” bill.

Betting Advice: Gillibrand seems ready to run in 2020, has demonstrated great political acumen, and has moved in step with the Democratic base. While her history of flip-flopping could come back to haunt her, she’s the best value among the Democratic frontrunners at 16/1 (+1600). 

Michelle Obama (Democrat): 20/1

Could the Obamas become the next political dynasty? Michelle Obama’s answer to that question is an emphatic “No!”

The former First Lady claims she has absolutely no interest in the presidency, but her supporters aren’t taking “no” for an answer. Her approval rating as First Lady was always favorable, even when Barack’s numbers sank. Of course, presidents are held to a different standard, so it’s not a completely fair comparison.

Betting Advice: Michelle Obama says she will not run in 2020 and it’s wise to take her at her word for now. Stay away. 

Nikki Haley (Republican): 40/1

Finally, a Republican! Nikki Haley, Trump’s Ambassador to the United Nations, is the only female Republican currently being considered for 2020. If, for whatever reason, Trump does not run for re-election, then Nikki Haley is one of the frontrunners to claim the Republican nomination.

Betting Advice: Haley at 40/1 offers a generous payout. If you don’t believe Trump will run in 2020, then picking Haley makes a lot of sense. Just look at the other GOPers ahead of her on the list: Marco Rubio, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan. Not exactly a much-loved or inspiring lot. 

Caroline Kennedy (Democrat): 40/1

It’s strange that Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of President John F. Kennedy, is being considered for 2020. Beyond her family name, she has little political clout. She considered running for Clinton’s Senate seat in 2008 (which went to Gillibrand), but withdrew due to “personal reasons.” Her only real political experience was as Obama’s Ambassador to Japan.

Betting Advice: Nope.

Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 50/1

Ah, there she is! After two failed bids for the presidency, bookmakers have placed Hillary Clinton at a slim 50/1 (+5000) odds. Her approval rating remains ridiculously low, and all indicates are that the Democrats are ready to move on.

Betting Advice: Yes, she won the popular vote and came within inches of becoming the first female President. But she didn’t win. She lost. She lost to Donald Trump.  chances.