Oscars Odds for Best Actor Tabs a New Favorite in Prediction Markets
By Paul Lebowitz in Entertainment
Published:
- With less than a week before the Oscars are held, the odds for Best Actor have moved dramatically
- Timothée Chalamet had long been the favorite to win the award, but now Michael B. Jordan has leapfrogged him in the betting odds
- See up-to-the-minute prediction markets ahead of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday
In mid-February, Timothée Chalamet’s odds to win the Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars were beyond 78%. At the same time, Michael B. Jordan was below 8% and wasn’t even in second place, behind perennial nominee Leonardo DiCaprio.
However, pre-Oscars awards ceremonies like BAFTA and the Actor awards are often indicative of how voters are leaning for the Oscars. Many times, it is in direct contrast to public perception and expectations. None of the current Best Actor nominees won at the BAFTA Film Awards. Robert Aramayo got the nod for I Swear. At the Actor Awards, Jordan was a surprise winner.
Suddenly, according to the most recent prediction markets, Chalamet is behind Michael B. Jordan. It’s a two-horse race, with the other contenders DiCaprio, Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) far behind. Should the extended pre-Oscar buzz favoring Chalamet take precedence? Or is Jordan’s late charge an indicator that he will take home the statue?
Latest Oscars Odds for Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan Now Favored
New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to score a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades are completed.
The Oscar for Best Actor is now a toss-up. It’s amassing heavy trading volume with more than $9.1 million already exchanged, and nearly a full week to go before the 98th Academy Awards.
Michael B. Jordan is approaching 50% with his sprint down the stretch. Chalamet, who was seen as fait accompli not long ago, is hovering around 5-6 points behind. DiCaprio is in the mid-single digits. Hawke and Moura are further behind.
The question those considering whether to jump in on Jordan or Chalamet need to consider is whether this is due to following the herd or if it is a real signifier that Jordan is the odds-on favorite to win. Of course, there are other factors to take into account.
Whether Jordan, Chalamet, or one of the heavy underdogs is the pick, their name being announced will resolve the market to Yes. The outcome will be verified by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
As the clock winds down, it’s important to keep track of all the 2026 Oscars odds, scheduled for March 15.
The Oscar for Best Actor is Up for Grabs
Picking an award winner is essentially an educated guess that initially stems from buzz. Timothée Chalamet was viewed as the favorite because of the widespread acclaim for his performance in Marty Supreme for several reasons, not the least of which was that he did not look like Timothée Chalamet in the film. For performers who are viewed as models, it can be harder to gain traction as a serious actor. Chalamet had managed that with several performances before Marty Supreme, which netted him Oscar nominations, including Call Me By Your Name and A Complete Unknown.
His problem is that he’s so young that he might fall into the trap that DiCaprio did, having time to wait. In some instances, that results in actors who deserved the award long before they won it — Paul Newman, for example — being left out and their annual loss becoming such a story that it ends up being a self-fulfilling prophecy to the tune of, “Oh, he’s gonna get passed over again.” Viewers might tune in to see if the overlooked performer finally wins.
Michael B. Jordan received his first nomination for Sinners, but he has long been rising in public consciousness for his work. He’s nine years older than Chalamet and just won at the Actor Awards, which clearly warranted a second look from those looking to wager on him to win the Best Actor Oscar. It’s currently a coin flip, with the initial belief that Chalamet was going to win being upended by Jordan taking the Best Actor at the Actor Awards.
The percentages are close, so there is value either way.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
