Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn Continues to Climb

• Awards season wraps up on March 15th with the Academy Awards
• Previous award shows have struggled to land a consensus pick in several categories
• Prediction markets are heating up as the Oscars approach, particularly for Best Supporting Actor

Hollywood’s biggest event, the Academy Awards, is just 10 days away, and every other major award show has wrapped, meaning all eyes are on who will win at the Oscars. Speculation around who will take home the hardware is ramping up now that everyone can look back and tally who won awards at preluding events like the BAFTAs, the Actors Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes.

While the CCAs and Golden Globes can give an early indication as to who may be a favorite, these results have the least impact on actual predictions because the voters here have no vote in the Oscars. Some of the voters at the BAFTAs and Actors Awards, however, do get to say in who takes home an Oscar, making these two award shows that much more impactful in award predictions. That is not to say these award shows are without fault, as the BAFTAs tend to favor international movies and the Actors Awards lean more towards American-made movies.  But when the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards align on a winner, historically, it is almost certain that the movie or person is destined to hear their name called at the Academy Awards.

With just days to go until the final award show of the year, the prediction markets are finally starting to settle on who traders think will be able to add “Academy Award Winner” to their list of titles. Many are turning their attention to the Best Supporting Actor, a market that already has $3.4 million in volume on it, with all eyes staring at Sean Penn for his role as Colonel Lockjaw.

Updated Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor

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After taking home the award for Best Supporting actor from both the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards, Sean Penn has cemented himself as the clear favorite to win the Oscar for his role in One Battle After Another. While he was an early favorite, Penn lost his lead on Kalshi to Stellan Skarsgard. Skarsgard held nearly a 50% lead going into the BAFTAs, where many thought the organization’s European bias would offer him continued success. However, they shocked everyone, giving Penn the award and flipping the Oscars prediction markets instantly in his favor.

Following this award show, Penn held roughly a 25% lead over Skarsgard until the Actors Awards. That is when his market really gained momentum and launched him to where he currently sits quite comfortably at 73% after taking home his second major award for the role.

Further worsening the case for Skarsgard to hear his name called at the Academy Awards is Delroy Lindo getting called to the stage as part of the Ensemble award at the Actors Awards for his part in Sinners. While this didn’t move Lindo into second place, it did show the American voters might not favor the foreign film enough to unseat an actor from their own backyard.

Take a look at the 2026 Oscars odds for Best Supporting Actor and several other highly-anticipated awards.

Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is primed to clean house at the Oscars, as the movie and those associated with it are favorites to win in several markets on Kalshi. Sean Penn is one of the clear frontrunners from this movie to take home an award for his role as Colonel Lockjaw. Other than a brief stint behind Stellan Skarsgard, Penn has held the top spot. Winning at the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards has led to a surge in backing for the actor’s prediction market, rising from 16.9% on February 22nd up to 76.9% by March 2nd.

With many of the voters from the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards having a vote in the Academy Awards, it’s hard to imagine they will buck their own trend and select another recipient for Best Supporting Actor. History is on Penn’s side to see a third straight win. Over the last 5 years, when the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards agree on a nominee, that person or movie always goes on to win at the Oscars.

Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value

After a tightly contested, months-long battle with Sean Penn, a win at the Golden Globes launched Stellan Skarsgard into a commanding lead that peaked at 69.2%. Skarsgard rode this wave for over a month, only to watch his lead vanish overnight as international industry professionals surprised many and voted against the Norwegian drama in favor of One Battle After Another.

This loss dropped the Sentimental Value actor down to 28.2%, a far cry from his once strong lead, but still within striking distance of the top spot. However, the Actors Awards likely proved to be the final nail in the coffin for Skarsgard, dropping him to an all-time low of 13.1% on March 2nd. With an overlap in voters from the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, Skarsgard faces an uphill battle to try to claim the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.

Delroy Lindo – Sinners

While surpassing Sean Penn remains a long shot for Delroy Lindo, he did gain some momentum in the closing days of award season. Sinners took home the ensemble award at the Actors Awards, which gave a slight boost to Lindo on Kalshi. Previously trending around 5% for most of January and February, this past weekend’s win lifted him to an all-time high of 9.8%, which has since fallen to 7.3%.

It may not seem like much, but Sinners winning at the Actors Awards shows that there is potential for a few surprising upsets that will disrupt PTA’s dominance across most major categories. With a historic 16 Oscar nominations, there is clear support from Hollywood for Sinners; it is just unclear if that is enough to overcome the impressive lead One Battle After Another has established across the board.

Traders can cast their vote for who they think will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor on Kalshi and follow along as the drama unfolds on March 15th.