Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Roles on the Move After BAFTAs
By Craig Dudek in Entertainment
Published:
- Sunday night’s BAFTA Awards featured surprising wins for both Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
- There has not been a consistent favorite for either award at the Critics’ Choice Awards or the Golden Globes
- With the Academy Awards on March 15th, the prediction markets are heating up for Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Award season is in full swing and has been filled with surprises ahead of Hollywood’s biggest event, the Academy Awards (Oscars). Sunday’s BAFTA Awards demonstrated just how hot the competition is for these awards. There has yet to be a consensus pick for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress at the three major award shows that have already happened, with a new winner each time.
Typically, there is some level of cohesion among all the ceremonies leading up to the Academy Awards, but with 2025 being such a great year for films, even critics are having a hard time deciding on who truly deserves the mantle of Best Supporting Actor and Actress. With just one more major awards show to go, the cinephiles can cast their opinion on who they think will take home an Oscar using the best prediction markets.
Latest Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor
Going into the BAFTA Awards on Sunday night, film lovers on Kalshi appeared confident in who would win Best Supporting Actor. Before the event, Stellan Skarsgard looked like a lock at 65.9%, with the competition trailing by 50%. However, after Sean Penn left with the hardware, the prediction markets watched that commanding lead evaporate. Penn, now at 55%, overtook Skarsgard’s position, leaving the former frontrunner trading at just 28%. Keep up with the latest 2026 Oscars odds to trade event contracts for who you think will take home the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.
These two powerhouses are not alone in the hunt for an Oscar. Jacob Elordi made a run up to 22% after winning the Critics’ Choice Awards’ Best Supporting Actor; however, that momentum seems to have stalled, with the actor now sitting at 5%. The markets on Benicio Del Toro were hot in early December as the One Battle After Another star racked up Best Supporting Actor awards from numerous smaller award shows and publications, but those wins seem to have been left in 2025, with his brief lead vanishing and leaving him currently at 6%.
Before the Academy Awards had even started, Sinners had a record-setting performance with 16 nominations. So while trading volume on Delroy Lindo has remained fairly low at 7%, he could be a value option given the overwhelming support Sinners has received.
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Latest Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress
The One Battle After Another star has led almost wire-to-wire during awards season in the lead-up to the Academy Awards. Starting as an early favorite, Teyana Taylor only briefly lost the top spot and has led by as much as 62%. Even with Wunmi Mosaku’s surprise win at the BAFTA Awards taking nearly 20% off Taylor’s lead, she is still in the driver’s seat at 52%. Taylor appears to be the clear favorite for Best Supporting Actress at the Academy Awards.
Mosaku’s win on Sunday has shown the prediction markets that Taylor can be beaten. Coming in as part of the huge wave of Oscar nominations from Sinners, traders on Kalshi have plenty of reason to believe she could carry the momentum from the win at the BAFTA awards into the biggest award show.
Anyone who has seen Weapons knows they should not overlook the powerful performance of Amy Madigan. She built up support early in December and parlayed that into a win at the CCA. That win gave her a weeklong run as the favorite on Kalshi’s Best Supporting Actress market, trading at a high of 40.7%. However, she was quickly dethroned at the end of the week when Taylor reclaimed the top spot with a win at the Golden Globes. While Mosaku’s win at the BAFTA Awards moved Madigan into 3rd place at 20%, the markets are trending up for her since the loss, and she is closing the gap on 2nd.
With one more major award show to go before the Oscars, the markets are far from set, and it is anyone’s game for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. New users get in on these hot markets at Kalshi and claim a $10 bonus on their first $10 trade.
Creative Manager and Writer at Sportradar. Craig has previously worked as a camera operator and video director in radio and television, as well as a content coordinator in the non-profit sector.
