Political Odds: James Comey Prepares to Testify

We’ve heard a lot about former FBI director James Comey since he was unceremoniously fired, but we haven’t heard much from the man himself. That’s all going to change this Thursday (June 8th) when he testifies before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

There are two main issues to be addressed. First, there’s Comey’s interactions with Trump and whether the President attempted to pressure the FBI director over the Trump-Russia investigation. Second, there’s the Trump-Russia investigation itself.

Comey is unlikely to reveal much about ongoing investigations. He no longer heads the FBI and he’ll likely divert investigation-related questions to Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who now leads the probe. After the Clinton investigation debacle, he’ll probably choose his words very carefully.

It’s more likely that the hearing will focus on Comey’s interactions with Trump: What was said, how it was interpreted, and whether it played a role in his firing.

Needless to say, this is a big deal. Every major broadcaster and cable news network will be covering the event, and CNN already has a countdown clock as if it’s New Year’s Eve.

What will be said? What will be asked? What will be revealed? Let’s preview the odds!

Comey Testimony Odds

Odds Comey confirms Trump’s “I hope you can let this go” request: 1/4

“I hope you can let this go”

Those were the words Donald Trump allegedly said to James Comey regarding the FBI investigation into disgraced former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. The quote is allegedly in Comey’s memos and has been confirmed by FBI insiders, but not by Comey himself.

Will Comey finally confirm Trump’s polite request (or veiled threat)?

Odds Comey disputes Trump’s claim that Comey told him three times he was not under investigation: 1/1

In the letter firing Comey, Trump wrote: “While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgement of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau.”

Is it true that Comey informed Trump on three separate occasions that he isn’t under investigation?

We’ll find out soon enough. It may be technically true, since at the time perhaps it was only Trump campaign members and associates who were under investigation. It could also be a flat-out lie.

Odds Comey accuses Trump of “obstruction of justice”: 19/1

Comey could describe actions that may be interpreted as obstruction of justice, but he will probably stop short of voicing that opinion himself. He could elaborate on how he interpreted Trump’s comments, but I think he’ll pick his words very carefully.

Then again, who really knows? We heard him voice his opinion regarding Hillary Clinton’s conduct, so maybe he’ll do the same with Trump.

Odds “Watergate” is mentioned during the hearing: 1/2

Comey definitely won’t be making comparisons to Watergate, but the Democrats in the Select Committee on Intelligence will probably want to draw some parallels. Don’t be surprised if the term “Watergate” is snuck into a few questions.

Odds Trump live tweets about the hearing: 1/1

Donald Trump is notoriously unpredictable when it comes to Twitter. He’ll definitely have a lot to say about Comey’s hearing, but the question is whether he’ll tweet about the testimony as it happens.

Odds Comey discusses Christopher Wray during the hearing: 5/1

This morning, Trump announced that he has chosen Christopher Wray, a former Justice Department official during the W. Bush administration, to head the FBI. It’s a controversial pick since he’s the man who defended Trump loyalist Chris Christie over the “Bridgegate” scandal.

The Senate may be interested in Comey’s thoughts, but that’s secondary to the intended purpose of the hearing.