Political Odds: Comey’s Replacement at the FBI

What do US Attorney Preet Bharara, Attorney General Sally Yates, and FBI Director James Comey all have in common?

Two things: (1) they were all involved in investigations of Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign; (2) they were all fired by Donald Trump.

Comey, the most recent casualty, had recently requested more funding for the Russia-Trump investigation and had just testified before the Senate Oversight Committee. Apparently, he angered Trump when he refused to provide a preview of his planned testimony to the Senate panel.

Of course, the official reason for Comey’s dismissal has nothing to do with the Russia investigation. Instead, the stated reason focuses on his unjust treatment of Hillary Clinton (seriously).

It’s a baffling and bizarre (and terrifying?) situation when supposedly non-partisan public servants wind up on the chopping block the minute they start poking around Trump’s Russia connections. Many in Washington are comparing it to Richard Nixon’s firing of special prosecutor Archibald Cox during Watergate. To me, it’s more reminiscent of despotism, with Trump requiring unquestioned loyalty from even apolitical actors. 

Where do we go from here? Who will replace James Comey and what will come of the Russia investigation? Here are the odds.

Odds to be the next FBI director

John Pistole (former FBI Deputy Director): 11/2

Trey Gowdy (Chair of the House Benghazi Committee): 11/1

Frances Townsend (former Homeland Security Advisor): 15/1

Rudy Giuliani: 50/1

Chris Christie: 99/1

Remember, the FBI director must be confirmed by the Senate. So while Trump may love to have a loyal supporter like Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie “leading” the investigation on him, it would be near-impossible to have them confirmed. Even some Senate Republicans are upset and concerned by the Comey dismissal.

Former FBI Deputy Director John Pistole is the frontrunner for the role. He worked with both the Bush and Obama administration and seems like a suitable and uncontroversial pick.

Trey Gowdy is a top Republican pick but would have trouble winning over any Democrats. He spearheaded the Benghazi investigation involving Hillary Clinton and is considered one of the more conservative members of the House.

It’s slim odds all round. There’s so much uncertainty surrounding the whole situation, so it’s no wonder there isn’t a strong favorite.

Odds there is a special investigation of Russian election intervention in 2017: 3/1

After the sacking of Comey, it seems like the perfect time for a special investigation. Republican Senator John McCain has called for an independent investigation, and so have a few House Republicans, but they remain in the minority. Senate leader Mitch McConnell has already shut down the idea.