D-backs vs Cubs Best Bets, Picks & Betting Splits (May 2)

• The Cubs are -160 home favorites over the D-backs this afternoon
• Chicago took Game 1 of the series yesterday 6-5
• See the D-backs vs Cubs best bets and picks below, along with the latest betting splits for May 2

The Chicago Cubs (20-12) continue their series as home favorites in the MLB odds against the Arizona Diamondbacks (16-15) this afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field.

This clash directly follows Chicago’s tight 6-5 victory over Arizona yesterday, but despite the defeat, the Diamondbacks displayed a strong offensive showing with 11 hits and a crucial home run from Geraldo Perdomo. However, the Cubs leaned on a resilient performance from starter Colin Rea and timely hitting to secure the one-run win.

The Cubs will send ace Shota Imanaga to the mound today, armed with elite swing-and-miss stuff and backed by a premier middle infield featuring Dansby Swanson. Arizona counters with Ryne Nelson, who hopes to bounce back from a rocky start to the season.

Below, you’ll find my favorite D-backs vs Cubs best bets and picks, along with the latest betting splits for the May 2nd NL showdown.

D-backs vs Cubs Best Bets

• Cubs Moneyline (-140 at BetMGM)
• Over 7.5 Runs (+100 at Bet365)

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My top picks today are the Cubs moneyline and over 7.5 runs. When breaking down the MLB starting pitchers and lineups for this matchup, how can you not be impressed with Chicago’s ace. Imanaga has been masterful, boasting a 2.88 ERA and a sparkling 0.87 WHIP across 34.1 innings pitched. Do not let his 2-2 record deceive you; his 2.84 FIP perfectly mirrors his ERA, validating his success rather than attributing it to good fortune or defensive help. He’s striking out batters at an elite rate of 9.96 per 9 innings.

Shota Imanaga vs Ryne Nelson Stats

Conversely, Nelson has struggled significantly, surrendering a bloated 7.71 ERA to go along with an uncomfortable 1.52 WHIP over his 25.2 innings of work. Compounding matters, Nelson averages just 4.28 innings per start, which will expose a vulnerable Arizona bullpen holding a collective 4.85 ERA early in the contest.

Given this massive starting pitching discrepancy and a Chicago lineup that carries a .777 team OPS compared to Arizona’s .726, backing the home favorites on the moneyline is the most logical choice. Additionally, while Imanaga suppresses opposing hitters, Nelson’s command issues should allow a potent home offense — which has scored 91 runs at Wrigley Field this season — to do the heavy lifting on the scoreboard to cash the Over.

D-backs vs Cubs Picks

• Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-152 at DraftKings)

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Imanaga’s swing-and-miss arsenal dictates at-bats. Generating nearly 10 strikeouts per 9 innings, he realistically only needs to pitch into the fifth inning to cash this ticket against an offense that has struck out 253 times in 1,039 overall at-bats this season. Per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, Imanaga has dominated the Arizona lineup, holding them to a .129 average with 7 k’s over 31 at-bats.

D-backs vs Cubs Odds

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D-backs vs Cubs Betting Splits

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits reveals that Chicago is currently drawing 84.8% of the moneyline betting tickets. More importantly, that popularity is entirely backed by the cash, with an overwhelming 88.0% of the total handle wagered on the favorites.

The splits for the game total paint an even more one-sided picture. The Over commands 91.6% of the betting tickets alongside 91.1% of the total money wagered, indicating clear expectations that the home offense will tee off against Nelson. The Over has cashed in a massive 90% of Chicago’s previous 10 matchups and 70% of Arizona’s last 10 games.