Political Odds: Health Care, the Wall, & Impeachment

Donald Trump just passed the 100-day mark as president, and he has embarrassingly little to show for it. The Trump administration, blessed with a Republican-led House and Senate, has failed to achieve almost all of his key campaign promises.

His plan for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States”, which was repackaged as a travel ban targeting Muslim-majority nations, was thwarted by the courts. Then he tried again and was knocked back a second time.

Next, he focussed his efforts on Obamacare, but his own party couldn’t come to an agreement on the details for the proposed replacement, the American Health Care Act (AHCA). After that debacle, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan vowed to wait until he’s certain he has the votes before bringing the bill to the floor. The revised AHCA bill hits the floor today.

And then, to top it off, there was the spending bill mess, which saw the Republicans narrowly avoid a government shutdown. The resulting bill has been met with widespread criticism from their own side. Moreover, the bill does not allocate any funding to Trump’s proposed border wall and continues to fund “sanctuary cities” and Planned Parenthood.

There’s a lot going on right now, so let’s just stick to the hot-button issues. Here are the odds for Trump’s border wall, health care plan, and impeachment.

Border Wall Odds

Donald Trump requested $1.4 billion for a southern border wall, but the proposed spending bill hasn’t been so generous. Instead, it allocates $497.4 million towards the “procurement, construction and improvements” of the existing border fence.

Both Democrats and fiscally conservative Republicans are united in their opposition to the wall, so it’s going to be tough for Trump moving forward. He’s vowed to fight on, though, so we definitely haven’t heard the last of it.

Odds construction on a border wall begins in 2017: 30/1

Odds construction on a border wall begins in Trump’s first term: 9/1

Odds Mexico pays for it: 200/1

Healthcare Odds

Republicans are united in their quest to repeal Obamacare; it’s the replace part they struggle with. Paul Ryan needs to pull off a delicate balancing act: lean too far to one side and he loses the moderate “Tuesday Group”; lean too far to the other and he loses the hard-line “Freedom Caucus”.

The first iteration of the AHCA was a mess, but Ryan seems convinced he’s got the votes this time round. The new bill has a few changes that may convince just enough House Republicans to switch.

Odds some form of the AHCA is passed in 2017: 1/10

Odds House Democrats support the bill: 100/1

Odds the following ObamaCare provisions are repealed in 2017:

Individual mandate: 1/1

Preexisting condition provision: 13/7

Employer mandate: 9/11

ACA subsidy: 63/37

Impeachment Odds

With so much controversy surrounding the president, it’s easy to fantasize about impeachment. Every week, there’s a bold new prediction that Trump is moments away from impeachment, but the chances are wildly overblown. It’s going to take a lot for a Republican-controlled congress to impeach their own guy.

Having said that, the emoluments case is still making its way through the courts and the issue of collusion between Russia and the Trump administration/campaign is looking more and more suspicious.

Odds Trump is impeached in 2017: 15/1

Odds Trump is impeached in his first term: 9/1

Odds Trump is president at year-end 2018: 3/7

Odds the emoluments case reaches the Supreme Court: 9/1