Political Odds: Republican Health Care In Turmoil

Paul Ryan caricature
Photo credit: Donkey Hotey, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr

After working tirelessly for almost seven years to repeal the Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare), Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and the Republicans were finally given the chance to replace the polarizing legislation. Their answer: the American Health Care Act (AHCA).

The replacement plan has united Democrats and Republicans, but not in the way Paul Ryan had hoped. The more conservative Republicans have dubbed it “Obamacare Lite,” opposing the bill because it doesn’t go far enough in overhauling the Affordable Care Act. Meanwhile, the Democrats across the aisle oppose the bill because they obviously prefer Obamacare to a watered-down alternative.

Then the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report came out and the results were scathing. The AHCA is predicted to leave 24 million Americans uninsured and benefits the young and wealthy at the expense of the old and poor. That has now made it difficult for moderate Republicans to support the bill.

The bill is currently being criticized from every direction. As many as 22 House Republicans may oppose the AHCA, which would lead to its defeat. 

Donald Trump has been eerily quiet on the matter, instead leaving Ryan to be the face of the bill. Interestingly, neither want their name tacked to it. They do not welcome calling the bill “Donaldcare” or “Ryancare.”

Before the AHCA was announced, Donald Trump claimed, Nobody knew that healthcare could be so complicated.” Well, things are about to get a lot more complicated. The Republicans have a majority in both the House and Senate, and if they can come together, the AHCA will pass without issue. But bringing the Republicans together over a bill that is controversial for so many different reasons will not be easy.

Here are the odds on whether the current iteration of the American Health Care Act will pass, along with some related props.

American Health Care Act Odds

Odds the American Health Care Act is approved as it is: 11/9

Odds a revised version of the AHCA is approved by year-end 2017: 7/13

Odds that a single Democrat votes in favor of the AHCA: 19/1

O/U on Republicans that vote against the current AHCA: 15

Odds that Donald Trump speaks out against the AHCA: 13/7

Odds that the bill becomes known as:

  • Trumpcare: 3/1
  • Ryancare: 4/1