Political Odds – Trump v Sanders; Clinton v Frog?

Bernie Sanders refuses to go gentle into that good presidential night.

The soon-to-be Democratic also-ran is staying relevant ahead of the California primary – where Hillary Clinton is probably going to lock up the party’s nomination – by proposing a one on one debate with the controversial and catalytic Donald Trump.

Sanders is an unabashed socialist, while Clinton sits closer to the center on a lot of key issues. A debate between Sanders and Trump, who leans as far right as you can on matters like immigration and ObamaCare, would result in a fierce ideological donnybrook.

Who would win the showdown, according to the general public?

Trump has proved himself to be an adequate debater during the Republican primaries, not because he can give eloquent responses to challenging questions, but because his ad hominem attacks and blunt blustering ring a chord with a certain section of the population.

Sanders is an effective debater, as well, for very different reasons. He’s great at staying on point and has a knack for smithing words, even though they look and sound like they’re coming out of your crazy uncle who still has a Mondale/Ferraro bumper sticker on his ’82 LeBaron.

Chances are that not many voters would be swayed by a Trump/Sanders debate. The two men are so far apart philosophically that the vast majority of Americans will sympathize with one or the other before they hit the stage. If any part of you is a pro-choice redistributionist, a couple Trump barbs at Bernie’s aesthetic aren’t going to change that. And if you support Trump’s puerile positions … God help you.

But I’m not here to judge your values (he said judgingly). I’m here to set the odds on whether a Trump/Sanders debate will happen, who would win, and what Hillary Clinton will be doing if her rivals box her out.

Odds of a Trump/Sanders debate taking place before the California primary (June 7): 3/1

It’s a great idea from the Sanders camp, and Trump isn’t against it at first blush. But there’s not much time to get it done and, as far as Sanders is concerned, the mere suggestion of the debate is proving almost as effective as the debate, itself, would be. The potential clash has dominated headlines, suggesting to the masses that Sanders is a viable opponent for the presumptive Republican nominee.

Odds on who would “win” a Trump/Sanders debate according to pollsters:

Sanders: 2/1

Trump: 5/2

America: 20/1

No one: 9/5

If Hillary Clinton debates someone on the same night, odds it will be:

Ted Cruz: 5/2

Paul Ryan: 4/1

Marco Rubio: 8/1

A dead frog with a tiny toupee: 1/1

The frog would make for nice symmetry with the competing debate.

(Image: DonkeyHotey (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode].)