Prediction Markets Odds for Super Bowl Commercials
By Paul Lebowitz in Entertainment
Published:
- Super Bowl commercials have become an event unto themselves, almost entirely separate from the game
- Non-sports fans tune in just to see the ads and the halftime show, all part of the NFL’s total takeover of sports and entertainment
- The phenomenon of Super Bowl commercials has become so monolithic that prediction markets are available for which companies and products will be featured
Saturation and indifference made the early Super Bowls a hard sell for the NFL and AFL. In those times, there were only three networks available and a few local stations, plus public television, to choose from. There was no specifically looking for what you wanted to see on a whim and hitting a button to watch it. In short, it was “You’ll watch what we show you and you’ll like it!”
As the game grew in stature and the ratings got better and better, advertisers understood the greater the reach, the bigger the payoff. The league obliged by extending the amount of time spent on breaks and staged a half-hour halftime show with the biggest stars it could find to be headliners.
Now, the commercials attract viewers who wouldn’t know a football from a tennis racket; who couldn’t differentiate Tom Brady from an entrepreneur with a podcast whose product has a 50/50 shot of being a Ponzi scheme.
Given the global viewership, companies know the attention and potential value of advertising during the Super Bowl. It’s costly, but to quote Matt Damon, fortune favors the brave.
With a seemingly endless array of options to invest and profit, why not add Super Bowl commercials to the mix? Often, it’s less predictable who will pop up in a commercial advertising which product than the results of the game itself!
Which Brands Will Advertise During Super Bowl LX
Prediction markets offer options as to which companies and products will be featured.
In some instances, it’s easy to predict Super Bowl commercials. A rule of thumb is to look at which companies have become so ubiquitous during NFL contests that they will automatically be featured in an ad during the biggest game of the year. Progressive falls into that category. So does Dunkin’.
And who can forget our introduction to Jordon Hudson, even though we didn’t know it, in a Dunkin’ ad featuring Ben Affleck and Bill Belichick?
It makes little sense to trade on those companies being featured since there’s little room for profit. However, lesser known entities and controversial products could appear. Some might be viewed as too risqué for the league’s family-friendly objectives.
For those looking to take part, a Kalshi promo code gives new users a $10 Sign Up Bonus once they have completed $100 in trades.
If a selected product, company, or entity appears during the official national 2026 broadcast of the game, the market will resolve to Yes. The sourcing must be from a credentialed news organization like the Associated Press, Sports Business Journal, The Hollywood Reporter, Ad Age, CBS Sports, ABC Sports, ESPN, Bloomberg News, and others. There is nuance such as a qualifying advertisement identifying a brand. For example, “The opening kickoff is brought to you by…” would qualify. It is essential to grasp the full rules when making a prediction.
Obvious and More Obscure Options for Super Bowl Commercials
Those who want to come as close as possible to guaranteeing they are correct can choose Pepsi or T-Mobile. As part of a recent advertising blitz, Liquid Death is trying to wedge itself in to the water market.
Yes. It’s water. And it is currently at 99¢ to have an ad during the Big Game.
Other products are less guaranteed.
Coinbase
This would be audacious, if nothing else. After the previously alluded to Matt Damon narrated “fortune favors the brave” ad which pushed Crypto.com hard and is now a punchline after the FTX bankruptcy cost investors a fortune, the digital currency has rebounded nicely. It’s certainly here to stay if, for no other reason, it being reduced to rubble would likely trigger another Depression.
It is probably a reasonable investment for a Super Bowl ad if not an investment for the product itself. It’s in the mid-60s percentage wise to show a commercial during the game.
Amazon Prime
Amazon is partners with the NFL, showing its lucrative Thursday Night Football, and is a fundamental part of commerce all over the world. A 30-second Super Bowl ad reportedly costs up to $10 million. Amazon Prime is hovering around near 60% of buying time during the Big Game.
That’s tip money for Jeff Bezos. With the number of people who might sign up for Amazon Prime defraying the expense, it’s a no-lose situation for Amazon.
Netflix
Netflix is an iffier proposition on the current markets, in the lower 40s range for showing an ad.
Still, given the investment into new shows and its recent acquisition of Warner Bros. Discover while Paramount Skydance is pursuing a hostile takeover of Warner, it could pop up in at least a perfunctory ad for its streaming service.
Blue Chew
This is a dual-edged sword for the NFL.
Blue Chew is something that one of the league’s primary demographics — men —wants or need. But it could be off-putting to another key market: conservative religious people. Some of the ads for Blue Chew are more over-the-top than others discussing intimate matters. But if they make it funny and relatively innocuous, then it could pop up (heh) at some point.
The odds are currently near 10% for Yes.
Yeezy
Kanye West, entertainer and owner of the fashion company, made a public apology for past behaviors and statements that were offensive to just about everyone, but particularly Jewish people. Needless to say, use of antisemitic tropes and praise for some of history’s greatest monsters is not going to endear anyone to the public, particularly the buying public.
While people are often open to accepting apologies, there is also the small matter of gauging how sincere that apology is. Kanye’s income streams could be drying up and he simply needs to boost his bank account and at least try to get back into the mainstream after years of objectively absurd behavior.
Yeezy is at around 10% for a Super Bowl ad. It’s difficult to see one appearing during the Super Bowl.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
