Roy Moore’s Chances to Win Alabama Senate Race

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Surely a known child molester couldn’t be voted into the Senate, right?

We won’t know for sure until December 12th, when the people of Alabama head to the polls for a Senate special election, “forced” to choose between a Democrat who prosecuted Klansmen church-bombers and a Republican who sexually assaulted multiple teenage girls.

Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, has unequivocally condemned GOP candidate Ray Moore and has called for him to drop out of the race. Many other Republicans have parroted his request, and even Ivanka Trump has spoken out against Moore. Donald Trump, however, has remained eerily silent.

The allegations are damning, well-sourced, and widespread. Following the Trump playbook, Moore has emphatically denied them all and labelled the accusers as liars. He’s refused to step aside and has vowed to continue to fight tooth-and-nail.

It’s up to the Alabamians to decide his fate. Will the dark red state vote against a man accused of sexually assaulting teenage girls as young as 14 when their other option is a *shudder* Democrat?

Odds to Win the Alabama Senate Special Election

Doug Jones: 1/1

Roy Moore: 11/9

Luther Strange: 50/1

Jeff Sessions: 80/1

Under ordinary circumstances, a Democrat would not be the favorite to win a Senate race in the state of Alabama. This is a solidly red state that leaned heavily in favor of Trump in 2016. But in light of recent revelations, the Republican stronghold could actually flip.

Doug Jones has become the (ever-so-slight) favorite simply for what he hasn’t done. To wit, he hasn’t been accused of grooming under-age girls and he has never been banned from a mall for harassing children. Moore’s poll numbers have been steadily dropping in recent days and the Republican National Committee has pulled his funding. Even Pro-Trump heavy hitters like Steve Bannon and Sean Hannity are slowly backing away.

Mitch McConnell doesn’t have too many options available to him. He could call on Luther Strange, who lost the Primary to Moore despite earning both McConnell and Trump’s endorsement, to stage a write-in campaign. Strange isn’t a known quantity, though, so a write-in campaign would probably fail.

In an even more bizarre move, Jeff Sessions could step down as Attorney General and contest his old Senate seat. This would allow Trump to appoint a new AG, one who hasn’t recused himself from the Tump-Russia investigation and could potentially fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. However, Sessions has lost a ton of credibility now that he’s embroiled in the Trump-Russia fiasco.

With just under a month to go, there isn’t much time left and write-in campaigns are rarely successful. The most likely outcome is a two-horse race between Jones and Moore, and if the polls are to be believed, Jones has the edge. 

Odds Donald Trump Condemns Moore by Election Day: 25/1

Donald Trump has been quick to fire back at Democratic Senator Al Franken when it was revealed that the Minnesota Senator sexually harassed a female radio news anchor. But when it comes to speaking out against a Republican accused of preying on five under-aged girls, we haven’t heard a peep.

Condemning Moore could open a can of worms for Trump. During the campaign, he was accused of sexual assault by multiple women, and he dismissed them all as liars — the exact same tactic Moore is employing. Trump will continue to tread quietly around Roy Moore.

Odds Ray Moore Drops Out of the Alabama Senate Special Election: 45/1

Moore, a former judge, has a long history of standing his ground in the wake of fierce opposition. In the past, he’s refused to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the Alabama Judicial Building, enforced the state’s ban on same-sex marriage after it was deemed unconstitutional, and clung to the Obama birther conspiracy theory long after it was debunked.

Whether you like it or not, it looks like Moore will be contesting the Senate seat.