Roy Moore’s Chances to Win Alabama Senate Race

Photo credit: Tim Olsen (Flickr) CC License

Surely a known child molester couldn’t be voted into the Senate, right?

We won’t know for sure until December 12th, when the people of Alabama head to the polls for a Senate special election, “forced” to choose between a Democrat who prosecuted Klansmen church-bombers and a Republican who sexually assaulted multiple teenage girls.

Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, has unequivocally condemned GOP candidate Ray Moore and has called for him to drop out of the race. Many other Republicans have parroted his request, and even Ivanka Trump has spoken out against Moore. Donald Trump, however, has remained eerily silent.

The allegations are damning, well-sourced, and widespread. Following the Trump playbook, Moore has emphatically denied them all and labelled the accusers as liars. He’s refused to step aside and has vowed to continue to fight tooth-and-nail.

It’s up to the Alabamians to decide his fate. Will the dark red state vote against a man accused of sexually assaulting teenage girls as young as 14 when their other option is a *shudder* Democrat?

Odds to Win the Alabama Senate Special Election

Doug Jones: 1/1

Roy Moore: 11/9

Luther Strange: 50/1

Jeff Sessions: 80/1

Under ordinary circumstances, a Democrat would not be the favorite to win a Senate race in the state of Alabama. This is a solidly red state that leaned heavily in favor of Trump in 2016. But in light of recent revelations, the Republican stronghold could actually flip.

Doug Jones has become the (ever-so-slight) favorite simply for what he hasn’t done. To wit, he hasn’t been accused of grooming under-age girls and he has never been banned from a mall for harassing children. Moore’s poll numbers have been steadily dropping in recent days and the Republican National Committee has pulled his funding. Even Pro-Trump heavy hitters like Steve Bannon and Sean Hannity are slowly backing away.

Mitch McConnell doesn’t have too many options available to him. He could call on Luther Strange, who lost the Primary to Moore despite earning both McConnell and Trump’s endorsement, to stage a write-in campaign. Strange isn’t a known quantity, though, so a write-in campaign would probably fail.

In an even more bizarre move, Jeff Sessions could step down as Attorney General and contest his old Senate seat. This would allow Trump to appoint a new AG, one who hasn’t recused himself from the Tump-Russia investigation and could potentially fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. However, Sessions has lost a ton of credibility now that he’s embroiled in the Trump-Russia fiasco.

With just under a month to go, there isn’t much time left and write-in campaigns are rarely successful. The most likely outcome is a two-horse race between Jones and Moore, and if the polls are to be believed, Jones has the edge. 

Odds Donald Trump Condemns Moore by Election Day: 25/1

Donald Trump has been quick to fire back at Democratic Senator Al Franken when it was revealed that the Minnesota Senator sexually harassed a female radio news anchor. But when it comes to speaking out against a Republican accused of preying on five under-aged girls, we haven’t heard a peep.

Condemning Moore could open a can of worms for Trump. During the campaign, he was accused of sexual assault by multiple women, and he dismissed them all as liars — the exact same tactic Moore is employing. Trump will continue to tread quietly around Roy Moore.

Odds Ray Moore Drops Out of the Alabama Senate Special Election: 45/1

Moore, a former judge, has a long history of standing his ground in the wake of fierce opposition. In the past, he’s refused to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the Alabama Judicial Building, enforced the state’s ban on same-sex marriage after it was deemed unconstitutional, and clung to the Obama birther conspiracy theory long after it was debunked.

Whether you like it or not, it looks like Moore will be contesting the Senate seat.

  • Beamer2006

    Assaulted teenagers? Where the hell did you get brainwashed? CNN? MSNBC? Moore will kick that commie’s ass! BET ON IT FOOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • MaryinRome

      Actually from Hannity, Bannon, Trump’s daughter. In sum, we know you need to base your views only on emotional need, but, facts don’t quite match. If you read what you have written, in all honesty, you have created a bubble around yourself and are not able to even consider for one moment that people may be lying to you to get you to believe as you do. Any information you hear that does not match your world view is interpreted by you as false. That is why you are now so easily manipulated and Trump knows that. Trump doesn’t respect you, neither does Moore, They just use you….and, I suspect you know that.

    • DB

      What makes Jones a commie? Even Breitbart and Fox agree that he brought Klansmen to justice. A commie wouldn’t have done that.

      Jones 53% – 47%.

      • Eric

        What do you mean, I am sure Obama would have brought the klansmen to justice as would have Moore if the case had come before his court, so why has communism have to do with it, even though the left has employed bombers such as Bill Ayers and the right has as well had their extremists such as these klansmen.

        • DB

          So what makes Jones a commie?

          And why call him names?

          Jones 53% – 47%.

    • Nayan Jyoti

      Aguero is just writing out his fantasies, but he is not stupid enough to bet on them. Currently Paddy Power has Moore odds of winning at 70%, and Betfair has him winning at 65%. Aguero can come and blow hot air here, but you can bet he won’t be putting any money on it.

    • bernard Caplan


  • meeester

    How about a link to a location where we can actually bet on this? I enjoyed taking some money away from the Irish betting pools when Trump won and would like to continue that with a bet on Moore for Senate


    Please show us evidence of any wrongdoing.