Tech Odds: Bitcoin Hits All-Time High; What Next?

Bitcoin is at it again!

The elusive cryptocurrency soared to a new all-time high on Friday (October 13th), surpassing $5,800 USD for the first time ever. Ask ten pundits what caused the spike and you’ll get eleven different theories. The truth is no one really knows.

Bitcoin is sitting pretty at $5,600 at the time of writing, but it may have sprinted away in either direction by the time you’re reading this. The future of the volatile cryptocurrency is uncertain. It could continue to soar but it could just as easily come tumbling down. And with a few scheduled forks coming up, we could be in for a wild ride.

BITCOIN ODDS

Odds Bitcoin breaks $8,000 USD by year-end 2017: 7/1

At the start of the year, Bitcoin was hovering around $1000. Then, after a series of spectacular booms and busts, the premier cryptocurrency increased its value five-fold. With that in mind, $8,000 actually seems kind of attainable.

Odds Bitcoin dips below $3,000 USD again by 2018: 5/1

Just as Bitcoin is prone to sudden bursts, it is also susceptible to dramatic swings in the other direction. In September, Bitcoin dropped around 35% of its value in just two weeks. In June, it plummeted 20% in five days.

A drop below $3,000 would be enormous even by Bitcoin’s standards. But we only have to look back to August to find the last time it was at that level.

Odds a nation bans Bitcoin in 2017: 6/1

Last month, China banned cryptocurrency exchanges and initial coin offerings. Russia recently announced it will block access to the websites of cryptocurrency exchanges. But no country has outright banned Bitcoin yet. 

Odds Bitcoin still leads cryptocurrencies in market capitalization by 2018: 1/20

The value of Ethereum, a competing cryptocurrency, has shot up from around $10 at the start of the year to over $300 today. But its market cap of around $32 billion still pales in comparison to Bitcoin’s $93 billion.

Bitcoin still has the first-mover advantage and will probably remain the leading cryptocurrency for some time.

Odds to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment in 2017

Amazon: 3/1

Netflix: 5/1

Apple: 7/1

Walmart: 50/1

Expedia, Microsoft, and Zynga all accept Bitcoin, but mainstream adoption is still a long way away. Amazon is constantly rumored to be on the cusp of accepting the cryptocurrency, but it hasn’t happened yet. Likewise, there’s been talk of the Apple Store jumping on the bandwagon but I wouldn’t hold my breath for that one either. As for more traditional companies like Walmart … fat chance!