Updated Survivor: Winners at War Odds – Sophie Favored Entering Fifth Episode

survivor winnerd at war
Who has what it takes to be the ultimate Survivor on Survivor: Winners at War? Photo by @EW (Twitter).
  • Survivor: Winners at War is four episodes in with five castaways voted off
  • Which players have seen their odds to win improve and who has fallen?
  • See our unique odds for each contestant during the much anticipated season of champions

Survivor fans have badly wanted a season with all-winners for many years, and we finally have it for the 40th installment of the series – Survivor: Winners at War – and through four episodes, the season has not disappointed.

With the winning prize bumped up to a reality show record-high $2 million, everyone is leaving everything out on the island, with even the first five players voted off (Natalie, Amber, Danni, Ethan and Tyson) still having an opportunity to get back into the game despite currently being on the Edge of Extinction.

Our pre-season picks for who would win and who stood virtually no chance remain relatively close to the same, with none of our top four picks voted off yet – however the shocking aspect is the top four behemoths to start Season 40 (Tony, Boston Rob, Sandra and Parvati), haven’t seen their torches snuffed yet.

Survivor: Winners at War Odds

Contestant SBD’s Odds to Win
Sophie 8/1
Michele 9/1
Denise 9/1
Wendell 12/1
Nick 12/1
Yul 15/1
Sarah 15/1
Kim 15/1
Ben 18/1
Jeremy 18/1
Adam 20/1
Parvati 30/1
Sandra 35/1
Boston Rob 35/1
Tony 40/1
Natalie 50/1
Ethan 55/1
Amber 55/1
Tyson 60/1
Danni 60/1

Bigger Targets Have Been Voted Off

While it has to amount to a pretty big surprise that Boston Rob and Parvati’s tribe has gone to Tribal Council three times and not banded together to vote off either of the two legends, the ripple effect of their presence has already been felt. Season three winner Ethan, who was in an alliance with them and Amber (Rob’s wife), and Tyson (believed to be tight with Rob), were both taken out of the game on the opposing team for fear they’d all join forces and work together come the merge.

Of those players who have been voted off, Natalie has amassed by far the most fire tokens, which buy her currency to barter with contestants who are still in the game in her attempt to return to the main beach and leave the edge of extinction behind.

It’s expected there will be a challenge at some point for those who have lost to re-join the tribe, and we don’t fully yet know how the fire tokens factor into that, but more tokens means Natalie has a better chance of gaining an advantage.

Survivor: Winners at War Contestants

Contestant Season Won
Ethan 3 (Africa) – on Edge of Extinction
Sandra 7, 20 (Pearl Islands, Heroes vs Villains)
Amber 8 (All-Stars) – on Edge of Extinction
Danni 11 (Guatemala) – on Edge of Extinction
Yul 13 (Cook Islands)
Parvati 16 (Micronesia)
Boston Rob 22 (Redemption Island)
Sophie 23 (South Pacific)
Kim 24 (One World)
Denise 25 (Philippines)
Tyson 27 (Blood vs Water) – on Edge of Extinction
Tony 28 (Cagayan)
Natalie 29 (San Juan Del Sur) – on Edge of Extinction
Jeremy 31 (Cambodia)
Michele 32 (Kaoh Rong)
Adam 33 (Millennials vs Gen X)
Sarah 34 (Game Changers)
Ben 35 (Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers)
Wendell 36 (Ghost Island)
Nick 37 (David vs Goliath)

The edge of extinction players are in tough to not only win their way back into the game, but then do well enough to make the finals and convince the jury they should be rewarded as the sole Survivor. This isn’t an impossible task, however, as (spoiler from a past season), Chris demonstrated in Season 38 when he was voted off on day eight, sent to EOE, but then made it back in the game en route to the title.

Under the Radar Players Still Favored

There’s something to be said about being non-threatening in a cast chock-full of dominant former winners, and that’s reflective of our odds for who will win the season. Sophie, who Tyson admitted is so under the radar he forgot her name, has so far shown great ability to make alliances but not come off as someone who needs to be targeted.

Ditto for Michele, who had a conversation with Boston Rob last episode how people don’t view her win from Kaoh Rong as legit, and Denise, who pulled the ultimate sleight of hand, concealing her hidden immunity idol at Tribal Council when Boston Rob demanded everyone empty their belongings. As the preview for episode five showed, there will be a swap of tribes which immediately will mean the big names will almost assuredly be gunned for. Therefore, bank on under-the-radar players to go deep in the game.

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