Updated Survivor: Winners at War Odds – Sophie Favored Entering Fifth Episode
- Survivor: Winners at War is four episodes in with five castaways voted off
- Which players have seen their odds to win improve and who has fallen?
- See our unique odds for each contestant during the much anticipated season of champions
Survivor fans have badly wanted a season with all-winners for many years, and we finally have it for the 40th installment of the series – Survivor: Winners at War – and through four episodes, the season has not disappointed.
With the winning prize bumped up to a reality show record-high $2 million, everyone is leaving everything out on the island, with even the first five players voted off (Natalie, Amber, Danni, Ethan and Tyson) still having an opportunity to get back into the game despite currently being on the Edge of Extinction.
Our pre-season picks for who would win and who stood virtually no chance remain relatively close to the same, with none of our top four picks voted off yet – however the shocking aspect is the top four behemoths to start Season 40 (Tony, Boston Rob, Sandra and Parvati), haven’t seen their torches snuffed yet.
Survivor: Winners at War Odds
| Contestant | SBD’s Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Sophie | 8/1 |
| Michele | 9/1 |
| Denise | 9/1 |
| Wendell | 12/1 |
| Nick | 12/1 |
| Yul | 15/1 |
| Sarah | 15/1 |
| Kim | 15/1 |
| Ben | 18/1 |
| Jeremy | 18/1 |
| Adam | 20/1 |
| Parvati | 30/1 |
| Sandra | 35/1 |
| Boston Rob | 35/1 |
| Tony | 40/1 |
| Natalie | 50/1 |
| Ethan | 55/1 |
| Amber | 55/1 |
| Tyson | 60/1 |
| Danni | 60/1 |
Bigger Targets Have Been Voted Off
While it has to amount to a pretty big surprise that Boston Rob and Parvati’s tribe has gone to Tribal Council three times and not banded together to vote off either of the two legends, the ripple effect of their presence has already been felt. Season three winner Ethan, who was in an alliance with them and Amber (Rob’s wife), and Tyson (believed to be tight with Rob), were both taken out of the game on the opposing team for fear they’d all join forces and work together come the merge.
Do you think Rob’s move was smart? RT for yes. Fav for no. #Survivor pic.twitter.com/saBcWb2tqW
— SURVIVOR (@survivorcbs) March 5, 2020
Of those players who have been voted off, Natalie has amassed by far the most fire tokens, which buy her currency to barter with contestants who are still in the game in her attempt to return to the main beach and leave the edge of extinction behind.
Fire Tokens have become a critical part of the game! Take a look back to see how this new #Survivor currency brought advantages, idols, and power to a few castaways over the course of this season. pic.twitter.com/gWSTxxpOae
— SURVIVOR (@survivorcbs) March 7, 2020
It’s expected there will be a challenge at some point for those who have lost to re-join the tribe, and we don’t fully yet know how the fire tokens factor into that, but more tokens means Natalie has a better chance of gaining an advantage.
Survivor: Winners at War Contestants
| Contestant | Season Won |
|---|---|
| Ethan | 3 (Africa) – on Edge of Extinction |
| Sandra | 7, 20 (Pearl Islands, Heroes vs Villains) |
| Amber | 8 (All-Stars) – on Edge of Extinction |
| Danni | 11 (Guatemala) – on Edge of Extinction |
| Yul | 13 (Cook Islands) |
| Parvati | 16 (Micronesia) |
| Boston Rob | 22 (Redemption Island) |
| Sophie | 23 (South Pacific) |
| Kim | 24 (One World) |
| Denise | 25 (Philippines) |
| Tyson | 27 (Blood vs Water) – on Edge of Extinction |
| Tony | 28 (Cagayan) |
| Natalie | 29 (San Juan Del Sur) – on Edge of Extinction |
| Jeremy | 31 (Cambodia) |
| Michele | 32 (Kaoh Rong) |
| Adam | 33 (Millennials vs Gen X) |
| Sarah | 34 (Game Changers) |
| Ben | 35 (Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers) |
| Wendell | 36 (Ghost Island) |
| Nick | 37 (David vs Goliath) |
The edge of extinction players are in tough to not only win their way back into the game, but then do well enough to make the finals and convince the jury they should be rewarded as the sole Survivor. This isn’t an impossible task, however, as (spoiler from a past season), Chris demonstrated in Season 38 when he was voted off on day eight, sent to EOE, but then made it back in the game en route to the title.
Under the Radar Players Still Favored
There’s something to be said about being non-threatening in a cast chock-full of dominant former winners, and that’s reflective of our odds for who will win the season. Sophie, who Tyson admitted is so under the radar he forgot her name, has so far shown great ability to make alliances but not come off as someone who needs to be targeted.
"Sophie… so under the radar I didn't know her name." – Tyson#Survivor
— Survivor Reddit (@Survivor_Reddit) March 5, 2020
Ditto for Michele, who had a conversation with Boston Rob last episode how people don’t view her win from Kaoh Rong as legit, and Denise, who pulled the ultimate sleight of hand, concealing her hidden immunity idol at Tribal Council when Boston Rob demanded everyone empty their belongings. As the preview for episode five showed, there will be a swap of tribes which immediately will mean the big names will almost assuredly be gunned for. Therefore, bank on under-the-radar players to go deep in the game.
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.
