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2019 PGA Tour John Deere Classic Odds and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Mar 28, 2020 · 6:49 PM PDT

Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa narrowly missed picking up his first win at the 3M Open. Photo By @TaylorMadeGolf (Twitter)
  • The John Deere Classic tees off Thursday, July 11, 2019
  • Young guns Colin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and last week’s winner Matthew Wolff headline the field
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of raising the trophy

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run this week for another tournament that promises a whole lot of scoring. While most of the top professionals are across the pond gearing up for next week’s Open Championship, three of the Tour’s most exciting rookies will tee it up including last week’s winner Matthew Wolff.

Wolff checks in with the third shortest odds on the board, while Collin Morikawa, who finished runner-up to Wolff last week, is the betting favorite.

2019 John Deere Classic Odds

Golfer Odds
Collin Morikawa +1600
Lucas Glover +2000
Matthew Wolff +2000
Viktor Hovland +2000
Charles Howell III +2500
Kevin Streelman +2500
Brian Harman +3300
Ryan Moore +3300
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Daniel Berger +3300

*Odds taken July 8, 2019. For a full list of players click the link in the table. 

It’s important to note that the average winning score at TPC Deere Run over the last seven years is -21, so scoring will be at a premium. Taking advantage of the par-5’s is a must, as they’re three of the four easiest holes on the course.

We’ll want to target good ball strikers as usual with a heavy emphasis on wedge play, as seven of the par-4’s measure less than 435 yards.

Morikawa is the Real Deal

The former number one ranked amateur has been turning heads since he turned pro last month, and narrowly missed picking up his first win at the 3M Open.

He’s an elite scorer, ranking first in this field in birdies or better over the last 24 rounds, and 21st in the key wedge proximity distances. After playing lights-out in the final group on Sunday, he knows what it takes to win on Tour and it won’t be long before he raises his first trophy.

Hovland’s on the Cusp of Victory

Another young gun I wouldn’t hesitate to back is Viktor Hovland. He has three top-13 finishes in his last four events, and his elite off the tee and approach play will give him a significant advantage on the par-5’s and short par-4’s this week.

Viktor Hovland’s Last 4 Tournaments

Tournament SG: T2G Result
3M Open 7.9 13th
Rocket Mortgage Classic 7.3 13th
Travelers 0.4 54th
U.S. Open 8.9 12th

He’s gained 18 strokes off the tee combined in his first four starts as a pro and another 14.6 on approach. Throw in the eighth-best birdie or better rate over the last 12 rounds in this field and a victory seems well within his range of outcomes.

2019 John Deere Classic Best Value Picks

  1. Brian Harman (+3300): Harman is heating up with two top-8 finishes in his last three starts. Over his last 12 rounds he ranks ninth in par-5 scoring in this field and top-25 in approach, greens in regulation and the key wedge proximity distances.
  2. Zach Johnson (+4000): ZJ is the ultimate course horse here with seven top-five finishes in his last ten appearances, including a win in 2012.
  3. Cameron Tringale (+8000): Tringale finished fifth two weeks ago and ranks top-five over his last 12 rounds in approach, birdies or better, greens in regulation, par-5 scoring and key wedge proximity distances.
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