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Patrick Reed’s Masters Odds Now +2800 After Winning WGC Mexico Championship

WGC Mexico
Patrick Reed claimed his eighth career victory Sunday in Mexico. Is he a legitimate threat to win his second career Green Jacket? Photo by @PGATOUR (Twitter).
  • Patrick Reed Masters odds have been shortened from +4000 to +2800 following his win in Mexico
  • Reed followed up his 2018 victory at Augusta with a 36th place finish at last year’s Masters
  • Is Reed a strong bet to win his second Green Jacket in 2020?

Patrick Reed birdied three of his final four holes to claim his eighth career victory at the WGC Mexico on Sunday. The controversial American, who has been criticized heavily over the past week for previous rules violations, shot a final round 67 to win by a stroke over Bryson DeChambeau.

The victory was his first since last year’s Northern Trust and prompted sportsbooks to slash his 2020 Masters odds. Prior to this week’s event, Reed was +4000 to win at Augusta, but that number is now down to +2800.

2020 Masters Odds

Team Odds
Rory McIlroy +700
Jon Rahm +1100
Brooks Koepka +1200
Justin Thomas +1200
Tiger Woods +1200
Dustin Johnson +1600
Xander Schauffele +2200
Adam Scott +2500
Justin Rose +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Patrick Reed +2800

Odds taken on Feb. 23rd

Chasing a Second Green Jacket

Reed is no stranger to success at the Masters. He won his first and only Major there in 2018, holding off both Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth. That year, he was unconscious with his ball striking and his putting, gaining 17.1 total strokes on the field for the tournament.

This past week in Mexico, Reed was striking the ball slightly better than average, but couldn’t miss with the flat stick. He gained 11.8 strokes putting at Club de Golf Chapultepec, the most he’s ever gained in an event in his career. He led the field in birdies and was one of just three players to break 70 in each of the four rounds.

While this is just his first victory of the 2020 season, he’s been playing stellar for the past eight months. Dating back to the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year, he’s finished outside the top-25 in just two events. During that stretch, he’s racked up nine top-10’s, five top-5’s and two victories.

He’s finished eighth or better in five of his past seven events and is playing as well as almost anyone in the world. With the Masters just six weeks away, Reed looks like a threat to take home a second Green Jacket.

Reed Excels at Long Courses

Reed is certainly not a bomber. In fact, he ranks 161st this season in driving distance. But despite the lack of length, he excels on long courses which comes in handy since Augusta is one of the longest tracks of the season.

Club de Golf Chapultepec played 7,330 yards this week, and looking back at each of his last four victories, they’ve all come on courses that measure 7,300 yards or longer.

In addition to his win in Mexico, he finished sixth at Torry Pines (7,698 yards) a month ago, and second at TOC (7,596 yards) in early January. Patrick Reed at long courses is a thing. He proved it by winning at Bethpage Black (7,468 yards) in 2016 and Augusta (7,435 yards) in 2018, and he’s proving it again this year.

Is Reed’s Price too Short to be Considered a Value?

Outside of Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, the players with the shortest and second shortest odds to win the Masters, no one is playing better than Reed at the moment. He’s on the first page of the leaderboard nearly every time he tees it up, and his elite short game allows him to compete at any venue he plays.

The problem is he was 45-1 to win in Mexico this past week and is now significantly shorter to win at Augusta. The Masters field will be tougher than the one he just beat, and it’s nearly impossible for him duplicate the putting performance we just saw. His recent form dictates that his new price is probably correct, but I’d much rather pull the trigger on some of the names he’s surrounded by.

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