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2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Jan 6, 2021 · 6:00 AM PST

Adam Scott
Adam Scott, of Australia, during the first round of the Masters golf tournament Friday, Nov. 13, 2020, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
  • The PGA Tour’s 2020-21 season resumes with the Sentry Tournament of Champions on Thursday, January 7th
  • Adam Scott, the 21st ranked player in the world, seems grossly mispriced with +5500 odds to win
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

The 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions will have a different feel this year. Due to the shortened 2020 season that saw multiple events wiped off the schedule, this year’ TOC will include players like Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau who didn’t lift a single trophy last season.

The 42-player field is the deepest ever in tournament history, with seven of the top-eight players in the world teeing it up starting Thursday, at the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii.

One player whose name leaps off the odds page at first glance is Adam Scott. The 2020 Genesis winner, and former number one player in the world, is priced at +5500 which is longer than quite a few players who have a much lower pedigree.

2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Adam Scott +5500 +300 -120
Marc Leishman +9000 +450 +120
Sebastian Munoz +12500 +550 +150

Odds taken Jan. 5th at DraftKings

Scott is a Steal

The following golfers: Finau, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler and Abraham Ancer are all priced shorter than Scott and have one thing in common. They haven’t won a PGA Tour event in the last four seasons. In Scheffler and Ancer’s case, they’ve never won on Tour, while Scott has 14 PGA titles under his belt, and another 17 worldwide.

He’s a tee-to-green stud, and one of the best wedge players in the field. Scott ranks second in proximity from 100-125 yards over his past 50 rounds, which should come in quite handy at this week’s course. Kapalua features eight Par-4’s that will likely require an approach from that 100-125 yard range, which should lead to plenty of makeable birdie looks for our guy.

For those of you worried that he hasn’t played competitively in nearly two months, don’t be. Scott took over three months off between the WGC-HSBC and the Genesis last season, and promptly showed up to Riviera and won.

Pick: Adam Scott to Win (+5500)

Leishman Loves This Track

Our next target is another Aussie in Marc Leishman. The five-time winner on Tour had an up-and-down year in 2020, that featured a win and a runner-up in his first five starts, before struggling after the COVID-induced layoff. He did finish strong with a 13th place at the Masters in November, and has an excellent record at this course.

Leishman has finished 7th and 4th in his past two trips to Kapalua, shooting at least 4-under par in five of eight rounds. Like Scott, he excels with short irons and wedges, and is an excellent wind player should the conditions turn nasty like they did last January.

Also working in his favor is the fact that his biggest weakness is negated at this track. Leishman is known to spray his driver, which is why he’s always a fade at tree line courses, but players find the fairways at Kapalua 12% more often than the average Tour stop. The Bermuda greens also play to his strengths, as he gains more strokes on those greens than any other surface.

Pick: Marc Leishman Top-10 Finish (+400)

Munoz is a Must

Last but not least is Sebastian Munoz, who’s fresh of his best season on Tour. Munoz began the 2019-20 season with a win at the Sanderson Farms, and closed with consecutive top-10’s at the BMW and Tour Championship.

He reeled off three top-20 finishes in his first five events of the 2020-21 campaign, including a 19th place showing at Augusta. He finished 17th in his first appearance at this event last year, and has the ball striking and scoring chops to eat this place up.

Pick: Sebastian Munoz Top-20 Finish (+150)

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