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2022 Sony Open 4th Round Odds, Predictions and Preview

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Jan 15, 2022 · 8:52 PM PST

Russell Henley acknowledges the crowd
Russell Henley waves after making an eagle on the ninth hole during the second round of the Sony Open golf tournament, Friday, Jan. 14, 2022, at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. (AP Photo/Matt York)
  • Russell Henley leads the Sony Open after three rounds by two shots
  • Reigning Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama is in second place after firing a 63, the best round of the day
  • See the updated odds below for Sunday’s final round

There have been five golfers who’ve won the Sony Open twice, and on Sunday, Russell Henley will try to become the sixth. Henley, the 2013 champ, began the third round with a three shot lead, but after firing a 67 on Saturday, will take a two stroke lead into the final round.

Updated 2022 Sony Open Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds
Russell Henley 1st -18 +100
Hideki Matsuyama 2nd -16 +225
Seamus Power T-3rd -14 +1400
Matt Kuchar T-3rd -14 +1800
Adam Svensson T-3rd -14 +2500
Kevin Kisner T-7th -13 +3500
Haotong Li T-3rd -14 +3500
Lucas Glover T-7th -13 +5000
Cameron Davis T-9th -12 +6500
Russell Knox T-9th -12 +9000

Odds as of January 15th at DraftKings.

Reigning Masters champ Hideki Matsuyma sits in second, after firing a round of 63, the best score of the third round. Matsuyama had the third shortest pre-tournament odds, behind only Cam Smith and Webb Simpson. Four more golfers are four shots back, including 2019 champ Matt Kuchar.

Pass on Henley at the Top

Henley, a three-time winner on Tour, hasn’t tasted victory since 2017. He led at the Wyndham Championship after three rounds back in August, but a final round 71 left him out of a playoff, which was ultimately won by Kevin Kisner.

He ranks inside the top-six this week in strokes gained tee-to-green, putting, and ball striking, but he started to show some cracks on Saturday. He needed to make a handful of nerve racking par putts after putting himself into bad positions off the tee, and while he can get hot with the flat stick, putting is not his forte.

Typically, he’s one of the world’s best iron players. He ranked first in this field in strokes gained approach over the past 50 rounds prior to this week, but he finished the day on Saturday ranked 27th out 65 golfers in that category. He was also 26th in strokes gained off-the-tee in the third round, and 47th in strokes gained around the green, only preserving his lead by burying key putts.

If Saturday’s performance repeats itself on Sunday, it’s hard to imagine him making as many putts to take home this title, thus making him an easy fade at +100.

Hideki’s Hot Putter Won’t Continue

That’s not to suggest I would run to the window to bet Matsuyama. Anyone who’s ever watched Matsuyama comes away amazed by his ball striking, but shocked by his putting. He’s failed to gain strokes on the greens in six straight measured events, and in 21 measured tournaments in 2021, he gained strokes putting five times.

Yet this week, he’s somehow managed to gain 6.46 strokes on the greens, the second most in the field. He’s going to have to make a lot more 10-20 footers in the final round if he wants to claim victory, and I’m not willing to bet on his putter staying this scorching hot at +225 odds.

2022 Sony Open Best Live Value Picks

  1. Seamus Power (+1400): He’s turned himself into a stat darling recently, ranking top-10 in this field in strokes gained tee-to-green, approach, and scoring over the last 50 rounds. He’s continued his hot-play this week by ranking third in strokes gained tee-to-green, and fifth in ball striking.
  2. Kevin Kisner (+2500): Our top pick in this week’s sleepers and longshots article, Kisner is very live to win heading into the final round five shots back. He followed up a Friday 64, with a 65 on Saturday, racking up seven birdies for the second straight day. Kisner has been close here a handful of times in the past, finishing T-5 or better three times since 2016.
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