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The American Express PGA Odds to Make the Cut

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Mar 7, 2023 · 2:56 PM PST

Aaron Wise watches his flop shot at the Sentry TOC
January 6, 2023; Maui, Hawaii, USA; Aaron Wise hits his chip shot on the 12th hole during the second round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions golf tournament at Kapalua Resort - The Plantation Course. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • You can bet on which golfers will make and miss the cut at The American Express
  • Which favorites might be heading home early? Will anyone off the radar reach the weekend?
  • See The American Express odds to make and miss the cut for the top players in the field

The PGA Tour returns to mainland USA this week for The American Express. Unlike most tournaments, this event features a 54-hole cut instead of the field being whittled down after two rounds.

The American Express also features a three course rotation, giving all golfers an opportunity to tee off at each track. Scoring will be at a premium this week, as the courses are some of the easiest on Tour, providing you can find the fairway.

Online sportsbooks have released their make and miss the cut list for The American Express, and the oddsboard highlights the discrepancy between the top end talent and the next tier.

Odds to Make and Miss Cut at The American Express

Golfer Odds to Make the Cut Odds to Miss the Cut
Jon Rahm -5000 +1100
Patrick Cantlay -2000 +700
Scottie Scheffler -1600 +650
Tony Finau -1100 +500
Sungjae Im -700 +400
Brian Harman -600 +350
Tom Kim -550 +330
Taylor Montgomery -425 +200
Aaron Wise -425 +275
Cameron Young -425 +275
Cam Davis -390 +230
Tom Hoge -390 +200
Si Woo Kim -390 +225
Andrew Putnam -360 +200
K.H. Lee -350 +225
Sahith Theegala -350 +225

Odds as of January 17 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on The American Express.

World number four Jon Rahm and tournament favorite, fresh off his miraculous comeback victory and the Sentry TOC, boasts the shortest odds to make the cut. His -5000 price tag has got to be some of the shortest odds ever given to make the cut, and there’s really no world where he deserves to be priced two and half times shorter than world number five Patrick Cantlay.

In terms of missed the cut candidates, there aren’t many given the options available. Only 16 golfers currently have odds, but one player who is worthy of a fade at this event is Aaron Wise.



It’s Wise to Fade Aaron

The 26-year-old tried to knock off the rust at the Sentry TOC after not playing competitively on Tour in two months. However, he might need another week.

Wise lost strokes ball striking in Hawaii which is typically the calling card of his game. His putter actually bailed him out, as he gained 1.3 strokes on the greens, but that’s not what he wants to be relying on.

Aaron Wise Last 3 Starts at The American Express

Year Result SG Total
2021 MC -3.6
2020 MC -3.3
2019 MC +0.7

Wise has had a miserable time at this event over the last few years, missing the cut three straight times. We mentioned how hitting fairways is a prerequisite, and that’s not one of his strong suits. Over the past 50 rounds, he ranks 88th in the field in fairways gained.

The American Express is also a pro-am featuring long, arduous rounds with C and often D list celebrities. Perhaps Wise is uncomfortable in that setting, or perhaps he hates playing slow. Whatever it is, him and this event don’t mix.

Pick: Aaron Wise to Miss the Cut (+275)

Make the Cut Parlay

While we’re fading Wise to make it all the way until Sunday, there’s a handful of players we are confident will be playing all four rounds.

Tom Kim is at the top of the list. Sure, he missed the cut last week at the Sony Open, but don’t forget he was the pre-tournament favorite. Nothing aside from putting sticks out negatively from last week, as he gained 3.8 strokes ball striking and 4.3 strokes tee-to-green.

Over the last 50 rounds he ranks third in strokes gained approach, and fourth in fairways gained. Kim is an excellent first leg for our make the cut parlay.

Next up, Cam Davis. He’s finished third, 29th and 28th in three career starts at The American Express and was in fine form at the Sony Open. Davis ranked first in eagles for the week, and second in ball striking and strokes gained off the tee.

Our parlay continues with Brian Harman. The short knocker boasts back-to-back top-10’s in this event and four top-21 finishes in the last five years. We’ll add Tom Hoge to the mix next, who ranks second in this field in strokes gained approach over the last 50 rounds, and first in birdie looks inside 15-feet.

Last but not least, our anchor Sahith Theegala. He’s missed just two cuts in his past 23 starts, and has finished inside the top-seven in three of his past seven tournaments. Theegala is one of the most personable players on Tour, and is someone would looks like he’d thrive playing alongside amateurs.

Add it all up, and we’re looking at a +180 payout if all five of our golfers survive the cutline and make it until Sunday.

Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+180)


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