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The American Express PGA Odds, Predictions & Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Jan 16, 2023 · 6:38 AM PST

Tom Kim hits his tee shot
January 13, 2023; Honolulu, Hawaii, USA; Tom Kim hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the second round of the Sony Open in Hawaii golf tournament at Waialae Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The American Express tees off Thursday, January 19th
  • Jon Rahm is the +700 favorite over Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay
  • Below, see the American Express odds to win, plus picks and the best-value bets

After the first two events of 2023 were played in Hawaii, the PGA Tour returns to the mainland for the American Express. Si Woo Kim won his fourth PGA Tour event at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and he’s also a past champ here, having taken it in 2021.

There will be three courses being used for this event, with the PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club in the rotation. After three rounds, the top-65 and ties will play the Stadium Course once again. Going low is imperative for success at this birdie fest tournament, with the last 15 champions shooting at least 20 under-par en route to the title.

2023 The American Express Odds

Golfers Odds
Jon Rahm +700
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Patrick Cantlay +1100
Tony Finau +1200
Xander Schauffele +1400
Tom Kim +2200
Will Zalatoris +2200
Sungjae Im +2200
Sam Burns +2500
Cameron Young +2500
Aaron Wise +3500
Taylor Montgomery +3500
Brian Harman +4000
Si Woo Kim +4500
Jason Day +5000
Tom Hoge +5000
Sahith Theegala +5500
Davis Riley +5500
Cam Davis +5500
Taylor Pendrith +6000

Odds as of January 16th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to make your The American Express bets

Five of the top-ten golfers in the world are competing, with Scottie Scheffler the highest ranked at #2. Jon Rahm has won three of his last five worldwide starts, including the Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks ago. The other three top-ten golfers are Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris.

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Tom Kim Presents Solid Value

20-year-old Tom Kim has taken the golf world by storm, having won two PGA Tour events last year in a four-event stretch (Wyndham Championship, Shriners Children’s Open). He’s coming off an uncharacteristic missed cut at the Sony Open, which caused his odds to jump to +2200 this week (from +1200 at the Sony Open).

Tom Kim’s Strokes Gained Stats Last 24 Rounds

Tee-To-Green Approach Ball Striking Total Short Game Putting
1 1 2 10 30 30

Before the missed cut, Kim was inside the top-25 in nine of his previous ten starts, which makes it easier to conclude the poor play was an aberration. Included in that stretch of ten tournaments was six top-10s, with three in a row before the stumble. At +2200, Kim presents solid value in the outright markets.

Past Five The American Express Winners

Year Winner
2022 Hudson Swafford
2021 Si Woo Kim
2020 Andrew Landry
2019 Adam Long
2018 Jon Rahm

2023 The American Express Picks and Value Bets

  1. Cameron Young (+2500): Last season’s Rookie of the Year keeps knocking on the door for his first victory, and it’s only a matter of time that it happens. Young had five runner-ups and two third-place showings in the campaign. He’s fifth in SG: off the tee and eighth in ball striking in the last 24 rounds.
  2. Adam Hadwin (+6500): Could Adam Hadwin make it a hat-trick of Canadian golfers winning this season, following Mackenzie Hughes and Adam Svensson? From 2016-19, Hadwin absolutely dominated this tournament, despite not taking the trophy. In that span, he went T-6th, 2nd, T-3rd, and T-2nd with a round of 59 in 2017. Hadwin has posted two top-10’s in his last four overall starts.
  3. Joel Dahmen (+9000): Joel Dahmen finished 2022 in style, racking up three straight top-10 results to end the campaign, including a tie for third in Mexico. In the last 24 rounds on tour, he’s tops in total strokes gained. He’ll be an interesting name to consider in the top 5/10/20 markets.


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