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Odds on First Round Leader, Best Matchup Plays & Top 10 Picks at The Charles Schwab Challenge

Webb Simpson has five Top-10 finishes in six starts this season, including a win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Photo by @WMPhoenixOpen (Twitter).
  • The Charles Schwab Challenge tees off Thursday, June 11th from Colonial CC in Fort Worth, Texas
  • Webb Simpson has a great track record at this tournament and profiles as an excellent First Round leader bet
  • See the best bets for matchup plays and Top 10’s for this week’s event

PGA Tour golf returns with a bang this Thursday as a stacked field tees it up for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. It’s the most talent rich tournament since last year’s BMW Championship in August, which means the odds board is stacked with value.

While trying to pick an outright winner is the most conventional way to bet golf, there are plenty of fun alternative ways to wager on an event. With that being said, let’s dive into a few, starting with our top first round leader plays.

2020 Charles Schwab Challenge First Round Leader Odds

Golfer Odds
Rory McIlroy +1600
Jon Rahm +2000
Justin Thomas +2500
Bryson DeChambeau +3300
Brooks Koepka +3300
Xander Schauffele +3300
Webb Simpson +3300
Dustin Johnson +4000
Patrick Reed +3300
Rickie Fowler +4500

Odds taken June 8th

Thursday’s weather is currently projecting to be sunny and calm, which means first round scores are likely to be very low.

Webb’s Been a Gem All Season

Success at Colonial depends on three things: accuracy off the tee, precision iron play and a soft touch around the green. With apologies to the very top of the board, perhaps no one exemplifies those traits more than Webb Simpson. The 34-year-old started the 2020 season with a seventh place finish at the Shriners and hasn’t looked back.

He’s racked up five top-10 finishes in six starts including a win in Phoenix. He ranks top-16 on Tour in first round scoring average (69.20) and has two top-5’s at this tournament in his last three visits.

Another stat working in Simpson’s favor is his prolific scoring on short Par-4’s. Five of Colonial’s 18 holes range from 350-400 yards, and two more fall in the 400-450 yard range. Simpson ranks top-four in scoring average in both key ranges over the past 50 rounds. If he continues to pile up birdies on the shorter holes, he’s a great bet to climb to the top of the leaderboard.

Pick: Webb Simpson (+3300)

2020 Charles Schwab Challenge First Round Leader Value Bets

  1. Marc Leishman (+5000): In the midst of a career season, the Aussie already has a first, second and third place finish on his 2020 resume. Ranks second in the field over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained approach, and shot 67 at Sawgrass in the opening round of the Players before play was cancelled.
  2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+8000): Has flashed a lot of game in his limited play with the PGA Tour’s best, most recently an 18th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitation. He followed that event up with a 65 in the first round at the Players before play was cancelled. His 2020 resume also includes a second place finish on the European Tour and a win on the South African Tour.
  3. Joel Dahmen (+8000): Back-to-back fifth place finishes before the break, and recently shot 58 at his home course in Arizona. Like Simpson, Dahmen feasts on short Par-4’s, ranking 12th and fourth in the key ranges over the past 24 rounds.

Sungjae Im vs Scottie Scheffler Matchup Odds

Golfer Moneyline
Sungjae Im -106
Scottie Scheffler +100

Im is the current FedExCup Standings leader and finished first and third in his previous two tournaments before the break. The guy never misses a tournament, and you have to believe nobody was grinding harder on the range during the hiatus.

Scottie Scheffler is certainly no slouch, but there’s a big discrepancy between their odds to win the tournament, and their play on and around the green.

Sungjae Im and Scottie Scheffler’s Stats Last 50 Rounds

Sungjae Im
VS
Scottie Scheffler

26 Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green 8
30 Strokes Gained Off the Tee 8
40 Strokes Gained Approach 34
24 Strokes Gained Short Game 95
16 Strokes Gained Putting 113

Over the past 50 rounds, Scheffler ranks 95th in strokes gained short game and 113th in strokes gained putting, while Im ranks 24th and 16th in those categories. With no grandstands or fans to knock down errant approaches, a big emphasis this week will be the ability to get up and down from anywhere. Im possesses that skill, while Scheffler does not.

Pick: Im (-106)

Favorite Top-10 Picks at 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge

Golfer Top 10 Odds
Ryan Palmer +700
Harris English +750
Danny Lee +1200
  1. Ryan Palmer: He’s a member at Colonial and it shows as he’s posted two top-6 finishes here in the past four years. The Texas native has two top-10 finishes on Tour this season, including one at the Sony Open, which plays similarly to this venue.
  2. Harris English: Owns five top-10 finishes already this season, and finished ninth at the API last time out. Has a great track record at this tournament, including a second place finish in 2016
  3. Danny Lee: Whether you’re a course history truther or not, it’s impossible to ignore Lee’s play at this event. He’s made the cut in all seven appearances, including two top-10’s. He’s also won the Greenbrier at TPC Old White, which is a corollary course to Colonial.

 

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