First Round Leader Odds and Picks at 2021 Northern Trust
By Michael Harrison in Golf
Published:
- The FedEx Cup Playoffs tee off with the Northern Trust from Jersey City, NJ on Thursday, August 19th
- Jon Rahm is the +1800 favorite over Jordan Spieth to lead after the first round
- See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article belowÂ
The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin at the Northern Trust from Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, New Jersey. The top-125 golfers from the regular season points list will compete, with only the top-70 in the standings making it to next week’s BMW Championship.
Jon Rahm, who is back competing after missing the Olympics due to a positive COVID test, is the overwhelming favorite to add to his trophy case. He’s followed by Jordan Spieth, who was runner-up at the Open Championship two starts ago. Subsequently, they are the top-two golfers favored to grab the lead after 18 holes at a course that hosted this tournament in 2019, won by Patrick Reed.
In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, along with what players are playing well on Thursday’s this season.
The Northern Trust 2021 First Round Leader Odds
| Golfer | Odds | Tee Time |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +1800 | 1:06pm |
| Jordan Spieth | +2200 | 8:26am |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 | 8:26am |
| Dustin Johnson | +2500 | 12:44pm |
| Xander Schauffele | +2800 | 8:15am |
| Brooks Koepka | +3000 | 8:04am |
| Rory McIlroy | +3000 | 8:15am |
| Paul Casey | +3500 | 7:53am |
| Daniel Berger | +3500 | 8:26am |
| Scottie Scheffler | +3500 | 8:26am |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3500 | 12:55pm |
| Justin Thomas | +3500 | 12:55pm |
| Abraham Ancer | +3500 | 1:06pm |
| Webb Simpson | +4000 | 7:53am |
| Viktor Hovland | +4000 | 8:15am |
Odds as of August 17th at DraftKings
The forecast is expecting there to be a risk of a thunderstorm until around 6pm, with temperatures between 75 and 80 degrees throughout the entire day. Wind gusts will be around 16 miles per hour in the morning, reaching 22 at noon, and going down to 18 for the early evening.
A benefit for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.
Collin Morikawa Leading FedEx Cup Points List
It hardly comes as a shock to suggest that reigning Open Champion Collin Morikawa might jump out to the early lead. In five of his last six Thursday’s, the PGA Tour’s preeminent ball striker has shot in the 60’s.
Unsurprisingly, he’s dominated in a lot of key ‘strokes gained’ categories in his last 24 rounds on tour.
Morikawa’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 24 Rounds
| Tee-To-Green | Total | Ball Striking | Approach | Off-The-Tee | Around-The-Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 23 |
Before an uncharacteristically poor (by his standards) T-26 showing at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Morikawa had that Open Championship victory, a runner-up (in a playoff), and a pair of T-4’s to his credit in his four previous events. It’s hard to go wrong trusting the 24-year-old phenom.
- Pick: Collin Morikawa (+2500)
Russell Henley So Close to Victory
During last week’s Wyndham Championship, Russell Henley led after each of the first three rounds, before missing the six-man playoff in soul crushing fashion with a missed short putt on the 72nd hole. That event was his fourth straight stateside inside the top 20, including the US Open, where he was also the 54-hole co-leader.
He’s made a habit of getting off to hot starts, with last week’s 62 joined by a trio of 67’s on day one, with the exception of a 70 at the Open Championship, in his last five starts. That’s been good enough to propel him to seventh in scoring on Thursday’s this season.
2020-21 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders
| Golfer | Average Score | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Cameron Smith | 69.00 | +5000 |
| 2. Cameron Tringale | 69.17 | +8000 |
| 3. Jason Kokrak | 69.18 | +6500 |
| 4. Brian Harman | 69.28 | +7000 |
| 5. Scottie Scheffler | 69.29 | +3500 |
| 6. Patrick Reed | 69.43 | +5000 |
| 7. Russell Henley | 69.55 | +6500 |
| 8. Seamus Power | 69.56 | +9000 |
| 9. Chris Kirk | 69.57 | +11000 |
| 10. Joaquin Niemann | 69.61 | +6500 |
In his last four tracked tournaments, Henley has gained over 26 shots tee-to-green over his competitors. He’s gained strokes on the greens in five of his last six events, which should give him plenty of birdie opportunities.
He runs hot and cold, but Henley has been playing so well lately that these odds are awfully enticing.
- Pick: Russell Henley (+6500)
Roger Sloan Trending Up
Canadian Roger Sloan is proving he belongs on the PGA Tour as a late bloomer, as he’s saved his best golf for the last three tournaments. At the 3M Open, he was in the mix all weekend, before settling for a top-20 result. Then, at the Barracuda Championship, he was sixth. He saved his best event for last, making the FedEx Cup Playoffs by being a part of the six-man playoff at the Wyndham Championship.
That strong play has resulted in him posting solid strokes gained stats in the last twelve rounds.
Sloan’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 12 Rounds
| Ball Striking | Approach | Total | Tee-To-Green | Off-The-Tee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 23 |
He’s also found himself to be proficient early in championships as well, as he’s 21st in first round scoring. It may be a tall task for Sloan to post a better score than the rest of the stacked field. At this outrageous number, however, he’s definitely worth a flier given his recent form.
- Pick: Roger Sloan (+11000)
Sports & Entertainment Writer
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 19 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.
