2021 PGA Tour Northern Trust Odds and Picks

• The FedEx Cup Playoffs tee off with the Northern Trust from Jersey City, NJ on Thursday, August 19th
• Jon Rahm is the +800 favorite over Jordan Spieth at Liberty National Golf Club
• We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

The three-tournament sprint for the FedEx Cup Playoffs begins this week at the Northern Trust. The top golfer on the points standings after the Northern Trust-BMW Championship-Tour Championship trio of events will earn the cool $15 million dollar prize. Only the top-125 players on the points standings qualified for this week, and just the top-70 after this championship will advance to the BMW.

Collin Morikawa, who leads the race heading into the playoffs, is not the betting favorite to claim the trophy. Jon Rahm, who wasn’t able to compete in the Olympics due to a positive COVID-19 test, is the +800 favorite to lift the hardware come Sunday evening. Dustin Johnson is the defending champion, but in 2020 the Northern Trust was played at TPC Boston. The last time Liberty National hosted, Patrick Reed won in 2019.

Some interesting names that failed to qualify for the postseason include Justin Rose (126), Rickie Fowler (134), Tommy Fleetwood (137) and Francesco Molinari (142).

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2021 The Northern Trust Odds

Odds as of August 18th

Daniel Berger Quietly Playing Solid Golf

Daniel Berger has won twice in the last two years, having taken the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in February. Since then, he’s made eleven of twelve cuts, and has really been on the precipice of getting back into the winner’s circle of late.

In his last five starts, Berger has been inside the top-8 on three occasions.

Daniel Berger’s Last Five Tournaments

In the last twelve rounds, Berger is first in strokes gained: approach, fourth in ball striking and tenth in total strokes gained. For the campaign, he’s sixth in SG: approaching the green and eighth in greens in regulation. That’ll set him up with plenty of birdie chances, and at +2800 to win outright, you’re getting him at solid value.

Last Five Northern Trust Winners

*Only win at Liberty National Golf Club the last five years

2021 Northern Trust Best Value Picks

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+4000): A high price tag for the reigning Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama. Coming off an uncharacteristic blip last week with a missed cut at the Wyndham Championship. The two events before that, he was runner-up at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and fourth at the Olympics. In last 24 rounds, he’s third in strokes gained: approach and fourth tee-to-green.
2. Adam Scott (+4000): Nearly won the Wyndham Championship last weekend after competing in the six-man playoff. On the first extra hole, Scott missed a short putt which would’ve earned him his 15th PGA Tour title. Won at Liberty National in 2013, then in 2019 at this track, placed fifth.
3. Shane Lowry (+7000): The Irishman has been consistently solid, playing the weekend in ten straight events. In eight of those instances, the 2019 Open Champion has been inside the top-25, with three top-10’s. Eight of last twelve rounds have been in the 60’s with worst score being a 71.