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PGA Championship Best H2H Picks and Longshots to Win

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated May 18, 2023 · 11:56 AM PDT

Cameron Smith admires a tee shot
Cameron Smith tees off during the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis , Tenn., Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022. Pgaday3006
  • The PGA Championship tees off Thursday (May 18) at Oak Hill Country Club
  • After a sluggish start, Cameron Smith has finished T-7 or better in three straight starts
  • Read below for our favorite longshot and head-to-head bets

The cream typically rises to the top at Major Championships, but if there’s ever a Major that lends itself to more longshot winners it’s the PGA Championship. This year’s edition will be contested at Oak Hill Country Club, site of the 2013 tournament. Jason Dufner won as a longshot that year, and who could forget Phil Mickelson claiming the title in 2021 after going off at 200-1.

There are plenty of worthy longshots to target this week, including Cameron Smith. This time last year, the reigning Open Champion would have been a top-five contender, but since moving to the LIV Tour it appears he’s gotten lost in the shuffle.

PGA Championship Longshot Odds

Golfer Odds to Win
Cameron Smith +3500
Keegan Bradley +11000
Thorbjorn Olesen +30000

Smith sits at +3500 in the PGA Championship odds at most online sportsbooks, but if you shop around there are still some 40-1’s lingering around.



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Odds as of May 17th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get a DraftKings promo code to bet on the 2023 PGA Championship. 

Smith a Steal in the Outright Market

Smith is on record as saying he hardly prepared for the start of this season’s LIV Tour. It’s funny how a few hundred million dollars can affect your worth ethic. The lack of rust was evident at the Masters where he posted a disappointing 34th place finish.

Since then however, he’s looked like the Smith of old. He hasn’t finished out the top-seven in any of his last three starts, posting a runner-up result last week in Tulsa. His game is clearly trending in the right direction, and there’s possibly no player in the world with a better combination of iron and short game play.

The greens and surrounding areas are reportedly treacherous at Oak Hill CC, and Smith’s elite skill set will put him in position to succeed. He’s a screaming value at his current outright price.

Pick: Cameron Smith (+3500)

Bradley Is a Clear Buy

Digging a little deeper down the odds board we ‘ll find Keegan Bradley at +11000. The 2011 PGA Championship winner does his best work in the Northeast, and is built for long, challenging courses.

Bradley has gained strokes ball striking in five of his last seven events, and around the green five times during that stretch as well. Putting is typically his downfall, but Bentgrass greens like they feature at Oak Hill are his jam.

Bentgrass is the only surface in which he gains strokes on the field per round, and four of his five career victories have come on that type of grass.

Pick: Keegan Bradley (+11000)

Take a Flier on Thorbjorn

Our last longshot target is a lottery ticket with massive upside. Thorbjorn Olesen has been on a heater on the DP World Tour and is being undervalued ahead of this week.

He’s finished T-20 or better in six of his past seven events, with a win and a third place result over his past four starts.

He leads the DP World Tour in scoring and ranks 13th in greens in regulation and 29th in putting.

Head-to-Head Best Bets

Switching to the head-to-head market now, where there is some series value on Max Homa. The six-time winner on Tour is pitted against Tyrrell Hatton, and while both enter in strong form, Homa’s price tag is a favorable +115.

Max Homa vs Tyrrell Hatton H2H Odds

Golfer Odds
Max Homa +115
Tyrrell Hatton -150

Both golfers are coming off top-eight finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship, and boast similar outright numbers. Statistically, Hatton has a slight advantage in ball striking over the past 36 rounds, with Homa showing better results with his irons as well as on and around the green.

Iron play and short game are going to be pivotal this week, and I’ll gladly target the better play in those categories at plus money.

Speaking of short game, that’s the main reason to lay -120 with Justin Thomas over Viktor Hovland. Thomas, the reigning PGA Champ, ranks 38th in the field in short game metrics over the last 36 rounds, while Hovland is 110th.

Viktor Hovland vs Justin Thomas H2H Odds

Golfer Odds
Viktor Hovland +100
Justin Thomas -120

Thomas also has better iron and tee-to-green stats than Hovland over that time frame, and is much better suited for difficult courses where you have to grind your tail off to make par.

Picks: Max Homa Over Tyrrell Hatton (+115), Justin Thomas Over Viktor Hovland (-120)


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