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US Open Props: Odds on Cut Line, Wire-to-Wire Winner, Winning Score, Winning Margin & More

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 9:46 AM PDT

Tiger Woods
Tiger Woods is the only player to finish under par in the past two US Opens at Pebble Beach. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • Books have a variety of unique US Open Props to wager on
  • You can bet on the winning score, the cut line, and everything in between
  • What are the best bets for each prop?

The US Open tees off Thursday from iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links, and there’s plenty more to wager on than just who will be holding the trophy on Sunday. There’s a prop for nearly everything imaginable, but with all the talk about how difficult this short track is going to play, we might as well start with what the cut line will be.

US Open Cut Line Odds

What Will the Cut Line Be? Odds
Over 146.5 Strokes -115
Under 146.5 Strokes -115

*All odds taken 06/11/19

Pebble Beach is a par-71 golf course, so by setting a +4.5 cut line oddsmakers expect a lot of carnage in the opening two rounds. The fairways are razor thin, the greens are lightning fast, and the rough is just as gnarly as it was in 2010.

The average cut line at the US Open in the last decade is 146, but each of the last two times the tournament was played at Pebble Beach the cut line settled at 149. Judging by the nasty conditions that await players this week, I think we’ll see a cut line well above 146.5.

Pick: Over 146.5 (-115)

Lowest Tournament Round Odds

What Will Be the Lowest Tournament Round? Odds
Over 65.5 Strokes +160
Under 65.5 Strokes -195

Only once in the last two US Opens played at Pebble Beach has a player broken 66, and that just happened to be Tiger Woods in 2000.

This course features the smallest greens on tour, and players will be facing challenging up-and-downs much more often than makable birdie putts.

Pick: Over 65.5 (+160)

Playoff Odds

Will a Playoff be Needed? Odds
Yes +325
No -450

There hasn’t been a playoff at the US Open since 2008 when Tiger Woods defeated Rocco Mediate on one leg. Woods’ iconic win at Torrey Pines that year is the only time in the last 17 years there’s been a playoff at the US Open, and there’s no reason to think that will change this week.

Pick: No (-450)

Albatross Odds

Will Any Player Make an Albatross? Odds
Yes +1100
No -2500

An albatross is the rarest score in golf, and something that’s been accomplished just three times in US Open history. There have been just 132 albatrosses recorded on tour since 1970 and only four in the last two years combined.

There’s only one par-5 at Pebble Beach reachable by the entire field, meaning there won’t be very many opportunities to record a two on a par-5 this week.

Pick: No (-2500)

Wire-to-Wire Winner Odds

Will There Be a Wire-to-Wire Winner? Odds
Yes +1200
No -3300

Prior to Brooks Koepka’s wire-to-wire win at last month’s PGA Championship, there hadn’t been a wire-to-wire Major winner since Jordan Spieth at the 2015 Masters. Pebble Beach in particular doesn’t profile as an ideal course for the feat to be accomplished due to the enormous amount of landmines lurking on every hole.

Everyone in the field is going to make bogeys, and plenty of them, meaning the lead is likely going to change hands numerous times throughout the week.

Pick: No (-3300)

Winning 72 Hole Score Odds

What Will Be the Winning 72 Hole Score? Odds
Over 278.5 strokes +145
Under 278.5 Strokes -175

The  average greens in regulation percentage at the past two US Opens played at Pebble Beach was approximately 50%, which means scoring will likely be tough to come by this week. Even the best players in the world will be scrambling early and often, and this will ultimately lead to more bogeys than we’re accustomed to seeing.

Throw in the unpredictable weather that accompanies an ocean-side course, and the winning score is much more likely to be closer to the 284 that was posted in 2010, than the outlier 272 Tiger recorded in 2000.

Pick: Over 278.5 strokes (+145)

Winning Margin Odds

What Will Be the Winning Margin? Odds
4 Shots or more +325
Exactly 3 Shots +500
Exactly 2 Shots +375
Exactly 1 Shot +250
Playoff Needed +325

Seven of the last 15 US Opens have been decided by one stroke, while three of the past five US Opens played on shorter tracks like Pebble have also been decided by a single stroke.

No Major since the 2017 Open Championship has been decided by more than two strokes, and with the quality of the field teeing it up this week it’s bound to be a close finish. I personally lean exactly one shot as the winning margin, but exactly two shots also seems very reasonable.

Pick: Exactly 1 shot (+250)

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