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WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Best Longshots and H2H Picks for WGC Match Play

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Mar 21, 2023 · 4:51 PM PDT

Collin Morikawa watches his tee shot
Mar 11, 2023; Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA; Collin Morikawa watches his tee shot during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
  • The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play from Austin, TX, tees off Wednesday, March 22nd
  • In the volatile match play format, sleepers and longshots could thrive at Austin Country Club
  • Read below for our favorite head-to-head match wagers

The first World Golf Championships event of 2023 sees 64 of the best golfers teeing it up in the lone match play tournament on the PGA Tour schedule. This is the final year of the WGC-Dell Technologies match play, and there are some players who are further down the betting board that could provide some excellent value as sleepers.

Another popular wager among golf bettors is selecting which golfers will win their head-to-head matchups. Wednesday is the start of the round robin format for the first three days of the event.

WGC-Dell Technologies Sleepers Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Tournament Odds to Win Group
Tommy Fleetwood +4500 +200
Corey Conners +8000 +225

Tommy Fleetwood checks in at +4500 in the WGC-Dell Match Play odds this week, with Corey Conners at +8000. The latter made it all the way to the semi-finals last year, where he wound up third.



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Odds as of March 21st at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Fleetwood Trending Towards Victory

In his last two events, Tommy Fleetwood entered the final day with a chance to earn his maiden title Stateside, as he was inside the top-five. A tough final day at the Players dropped him down the board, but at the Valspar, he wound up T-3rd.

He’s twice made the quarterfinals of this event, including in 2021, where he lost to eventual champion Billy Horschel. He’s in a group featuring Sungjae Im, Maverick McNealy and J.T. Poston. None of them have ever made it out of the group stage.

In his last twelve rounds on the PGA Tour, Fleetwood has ranked tenth in SG: tee-to-green, and eleventh in total strokes gained. He’s been solid in all key SG parameters during that time frame. His experience in the last two Ryder Cups will also be a boon for the Englishman.

Pick: Tommy Fleetwood to Win (+4500)

Corey Conners Thrives At This Course

After an inauspicious debut at the Match Play in 2021, Corey Conners was outstanding in 2022, making it all the way to the semi-finals. He won six of seven matches, where he wound up third by beating Dustin Johnson 3&1 in the consolation match.

For the campaign, he’s put together a solid run, with five top-25’s, though he hasn’t been phenomenal. For that reason, he finds himself as a +225 underdog in his group with Cameron Young (+150), Sepp Straka (+350), and Davis Thompson (+400).

Other than a runner-up at the American Express, Thompson hasn’t been better than 53rd in six other events in 2023. Straka is coming off a missed cut and a T-65 the last two tourneys. Cameron Young is the favorite but his best showing on the PGA Tour in his last eleven tournaments is a T-10th at Bay Hill.

Pick: Corey Conners To Win Group (+225)

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Head-To-Head Picks

  1. Collin Morikawa (-165) to defeat Victor Perez (+140): Collin Morikawa comes into the tournament having played some fantastic golf in 2023. He’s put together a runner-up, a third place showing, a T-6th and a T-13th at the Players Championship. Last year, he made it out of the group stage, going 2-0-1. Following his victory to kick off 2023, Victor Perez has had three decent starts, but nothing in the top-10. He did make the semis here in 2021, but Morikawa is third in ball striking and fifth in total strokes gained the last 24 rounds.
  2. Kevin Kisner (+140) to defeat Hideki Matsuyama (-165): An intriguing underdog play is that of Kevin Kisner to defeat Hideki Matsuyama. Kisner comes in with no form at all, while Matsuyama was fifth at the Players Championship. Something changes when Kisner gets to this track, however, as he’s made the final in three of the last four years (winning it in 2019). At Austin Country Club, he’s 22-7-1, where’s Matsuyama is far less accomplished at 5-8-2.


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