Updated Final Round Odds to Win WGC Mexico Championship: Leader Thomas the +110 Favorite

WGC Mexico
Justin Thomas is the 54-hole leader at the WGC Mexico. Photo by @GwinnettDaily (Twitter).
  • After three rounds of play, leader Justin Thomas is a +110 chalk to win the WGC Mexico Championship 
  • Jon Rahm is four shots off the pace following a 61 on Saturday. Is he a worthy value bet at +1200?
  • See the updated live odds at the Club de Golf Chapultepec heading into the weekend

As the players tee it up Sunday for the final round of play at the WGC Mexico Championship, consistency is the word that best describes the play of Justin Thomas

The leader at 15-under par, through three rounds, Thomas has gotten one stroke better each day. He opened the tournament with a four-under par 67. Thomas carded a 66 on Friday, and finished with a 65 on Saturday.

Sportsbooks list Thomas as the +110 chalk to finish atop the leaderboard and win the first World Golf Championships event of 2020.

WGC Mexico Championship Odds

Player Score Odds
Justin Thomas -15 +110
Patrick Reed -14 +350
Erik van Rooyen -14 +600
Rory McIlory -11 +900
Jon Rahm -11 +1200
Bryson DeChambeau -11 +1800
Paul Casey -10 +5000
Tyrell Hatton -10 +6600
Hideki Matsuyama -9 +8000
Gary Woodland -9 +10000
Kevin Na -9 +15000

Odds taken Feb. 22.

Patrick Reed, the 2018 Masters champion, fell to a shot off the pace after bogeying his final hole on Saturday.

No Doubting Thomas

Thomas opened and closed his round on Saturday with bogeys. He birdied half of the 16 holes in between, though.

He carded an eagle and five birdies to go with two bogeys on Friday. In his opening round, Thomas had one bogey and five birdies.

Through three rounds of play, the American is tied for second in the field in total eagles and birdies, and for the fewest bogeys. That level of consistency will prove tough to beat.

Reed, DeChambeau Slip

When Thomas bogeyed 18 on Saturday, it moved Reed into a share of the lead. But with a chance at prosperity, he found the bunker on 18 and also bogeyed the hole to fall a shot off the pace.

Also one shot back, Erik Van Rooyen followed a second-round 62 by mixing five birdies and an eagle around three bogeys for a 67.

Bryson DeChambeau was the second-round leader by a shot. After shooting a 63 Friday, he skyrocketed to a 71 and left himself on the cusp of contention.

Rahm Tough?

An ace on the 158-yard par-3 17th hole was the highlight of a magnificent Round 3 for Jon Rahm. He fired a course-record 10-under 61 for the day to move within striking distance of the leaders at 11-under.

Rahm birdied six of his first seven holes. Three of the last four pros to card a 61 in a tournament ended up winning the whole thing.

At +1200, Rahm might look like a sound value bet. However, of the three players ahead of him, only one has turned in a round higher than 69.

Four shots is probably too much for Rahm to make up in 18 holes.

Will Rory Roar?

World No. 1 Rory McIlroy opened as the +600 favorite to win the WGC Mexico Championship. Entering the final round, he’s still in with a chance.

McIlroy is grouped with Rahm and DeChambeau at -11. He’s been steady, going 65-69-68. But McIlroy will need to unleash a round in the low 60’s on Sunday to have any shot here.

WGC Mexico Belongs To Thomas

Sure, it’s easy to just bet the favorite to win. In this case, though, it’s also the smart play.

Last Five WGC-Mexico Championship Winners

Year Winner
2019 Dustin Johnson
2018 Phil Mickleson
2017 Dustin Johnson
2016 Adam Scott
2015 Dustin Johnson

The world No. 4, is positioned to post his third victory of the season. He’s already won the CJ Cup and Sentry Tournament of Champions. Thomas has finished in the top-10 of this tourament three times prior to this year.

Pick: Justin Thomas (+110).

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