Kentucky Downs Odds & Picks – Mint Million Stakes, Turf Sprint, Turf Cup & More

• Saturday’s card at the boutique seven-day Kentucky Downs meet is loaded with top horses
• There are six graded stakes races including two Breeders Cup Win and You’re In events
• Where can we find betting value at one of America’s most unique tracks?

Occasionally the question is pondered why should you spend the time and money to visit the world when you could see it all at Epcot? The horse racing equivalent is Kentucky Downs in Franklin, KY.

There is great horse racing in England, Ireland, and Germany. However, on the Kentucky/Tennessee border, about 40 miles north of Nashville sits America’s only European-style course. Kentucky Downs has no dirt racing. Their turf surface is a mile and five-sixteenths and kidney-shaped with undulation and a right-hand bend.

With very rich purses, Kentucky Downs attracts deep quality fields. Saturday’s card is loaded. Let’s detail the big races and consider the top contenders.

Kentucky Downs Picks

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A $1 million race is a big deal. To have two of them on the same card, and each be Breeders Cup Win and You’re In races is really something. The six-furlong Turf Sprint winner earns a berth in the BC Turf Sprint. The mile-and-a-half Turf Cup winner advances to the BC Turf.

On the “undercard” the $750,000 Ladies Turf is a mile-and-a-quarter. A pair of $600,000 events, the Franklin-Simpson Stakes and Ladies Sprint are six-and-a-half furlong tests.

The Mint Million is a third $1 million race, but it was not supposed to be run on Saturday. Racing was canceled last weekend, and that is why the one-mile event was been added to this huge day at Kentucky Downs.

Mint Million Prediction

When the race was supposed to be run last week, it lacked early speed. Subsequently, Somelikeithotbrown (+450) decided to run. Though he is a nine-time winner, most are against New York state-bred competition and he is winless going a mile (he prefers longer). That said, his early tempo could help Pixelate (+500).

Pixelate won this race last year coming from well off the pace.

He rallied by Somelikeithotbrown in the late stages, and may do so again. Pixelate has not won since that race but has run well albeit against somewhat lesser competition.

Atone (+300) would have benefited if Somelikeithotbrown was not in the field. Atone should be forwardly placed and look to make the first move on the pacesetter. He is very consistent, and has been facing strong competition, but hasn’t won since November.

Pick: Pixelate (+500)

Ladies Turf Prediction

Dalika (+200) beat Princess Grace (+300) when they faced each other last month at Churchill Downs.

That was a terrific effort from Dalika, who seemed beaten, and came back to earn the win. That said, Dalika hasn’t won in six starts going a mile, and Princess Grace is three for five at this distance.

Stolen Holiday (+400) ran huge last time at Monmouth Park. That is the only race in her 10 career efforts that could compete with this group, but a repeat makes her viable.

Lady Speightspeare (+800) is six for six in Canada, but hasn’t won in five tries in the US. She is in great form and is two for three at the distance.

Pick: Princess Grace (+300)

Turf Sprint Prediction

Arrest Me Red (+180) is a very tough customer who has beaten several of his rivals today already.

Since the start of last year Arrest Me Red has four wins, a second, and third.

Arzak (+450) has run four straight strong races including last time out when he finished just under a length behind Breeders Cup winner Golden Pal.

Chewing Gum (+500) is second off a layoff and cutting back following a fourth-place effort at Woodbine last time out. While he has lost to Arrest Me Red twice, both have been fairly close.

Chewing Gum breaks from post position number two, while Arrest Me Red is on the outside. At six furlongs they hit the turn quickly at Kentucky Downs.

Eclipse Award-winning jockey Joel Rosario has seemingly opted to ride Chewing Gum over Arzak, both who he has been on recently.

Pick: Chewing Gum (+500)

Turf Cup Prediction

Gufo (+140) is very tempormental. He comes from the clouds, prefers three turns, and absolutely loves races at a mile-and-a-half.

While he won last time out, and always runs well, Gufo has just two victories in his last seven starts.

Arklow (+350) had trouble and still just missed in his first race off a long layoff at Saratoga on July 31. He finished second by a neck in this race last year and has two wins at Kentucky Downs. That said, he has not been close in several opportunities against Grade 1 competition, and while this is a G2 contest, Gufo is a multiple Grade 1 winner.

Temple (+600) is in good form, but lost to Gufo handily in April, and hasn’t run well in three starts at Kentucky Downs

Pick: Gufo (+140)

Ladies Sprint Prediction

Campanelle (+160) is a world traveler who has been very hard to beat when facing girls in this country.

Will all the travel be an issue? She was third racing against boys at Royal Ascot in England in June.

In Good Spirits (+600) won this race last year at +1490. She hasn’t won since, but off a layoff broke poorly and still just missed against somewhat lesser competition at Saratoga a month ago.

Creative Credit (+1200) beat Elle Z (+1200) last time out at Ellis Park. They are facing tougher competition now, but are very quick early and will look to steal the race.

Pick: Campanelle (+160)

Franklin-Simpson Stakes Prediction

Big Invasion (+160) has six straight wins and the last two are better than what anyone else in this field has run.

Big Invasion has lost just once in his career and is a deserving short price.

All in Sync (+1000) made his turf debut last time out at Ellis Park and ran the race of his life. A small step up from that would make him really interesting.

Run Curtis Run (+600) has lost to Big Invasion twice but was within a few lengths both times.

Sumter (+350) and One Timer (+1500) have run some very good races. Sumter has primarily been running well in longer events. One Timer has had success against lesser competition and sometimes on different surfaces

Pick: Big Invasion (+160)