Italy vs USA Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds for WBC (March 10)

• The United States is a hefty -1100 favorite as they take on Italy Tuesday at the World Baseball Classic
• The Italians are 2-0 with wins over Brazil and Great Britain
• See my Italy vs USA best bet and the latest odds for this WBC Game March 10

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The powerhouse American team can clinch Pool B at a perfect 4-0 if they can get by Team Italy on Tuesday night.

Italy is a sturdy 2-0 in its WBC run, but this will be their first real competition of the tournament, as they faced off with Pool B lightweights Great Britain and Brazil.

This is signalled at the books, where the Americans are solid -1100 favorites on the moneyline.

Action gets underway at 9pm ET from Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage.

Italy vs USA Best Bet

• Judge to Hit a Home Run (+210 at FanDuel)

Aaron Judge set the tone for the Americans in a massive 5-3 win over Mexico on Monday, moving to a perfect 3-0 in Pool B.

A win Tuesday locks up first for the USA, but a loss could still open the door for a potential 3-team logjam at the top, with USA, Italy and Mexico (assuming Mexico knocks off the Italians on Wednesday).

There’s little value in taking the Americans on the moneyline, as you’d need to bet $1100 for the USA win to earn a $100 profit.

Instead, I will take the Yankees’ outfielder to go yard in back-to-back games, with a nice payout of +210.

CAPTAIN AMERICA 🇺🇸

Aaron Judge bomb to get the game started 💪

To hit a HR: (+120) pic.twitter.com/SorDAaN6or

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) March 7, 2026

He’s been stellar for Team USA, hitting .333 with a 1.333 OPS. two of his four hits have been home runs, and he’s also driven in five, scored four runs and walked four times.

The Italians have been saving their big arms specifically for these later pool matchups, so Phillies standout Aaron Nola and veteran Rockies’ starter Michael Lorenzen are both possible starters for this one.

Judge hasn’t homered off either, but he’s had success against Nola, going 4-for-8 with a walk — though all hits have been singles. He’s had just two plate appearances vs Lorenzen, with just a walk and strikeout on the resume,

Still, Judge doesn’t need much to add another pitcher to his home run list. The guy has drilled 50+ homers in three of the last four years, so it’s safe to say that he’s a legitimate HR threat when he steps to the plate, no matter who is on the mound.

Italy vs USA Picks

• Aaron Judge or Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+100 at FanDuel)

America would love to see another bat get hot to compliment Judge, Roman Anthony and Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper could be that additional guy.

He’s yet to find his stride at the WBC, going just 3-for-14 with just one RBI and five strikeouts, though he does have three runs scored.

If Italy does in fact start Nola, Harper has the chance to mash. He’s a career .303 hitter against the Phillies’ right-hander, with 10 hits in 33 at-bats, including three homer runs and seven RBI.

• Dante Nori 2+ hits (+155 at DraftKings)

Phillies prospect Dante Nori has been tearing it up for Italy, as the outfielder has hits in five of seven at-bats for a ridiculous .714 clip, with two home runs and three RBI, two runs scored and two walks.

It's a 2-homer game for Team Italy's Dante Nori! 🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/DNBEZsQoAF

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 7, 2026

Nori will benefit from the US sending out all their top arms through three games, and it’s expected 24-year-old Nolan McLean of the Mets gets the call.

A September call-up in 2025, he went 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA, but New York was fading from the playoff picture, so this WBC start will be his first big stakes start in a while.

Nori should benefit batting left against the young righty.

Italy vs USA Odds

The Americans are a non-wagerable -1100 favorite over at FanDuel, while Kalshi has an Italian upset paying out at +1011 odds — representing another betting bridge too far. Even catching a 2.5-run cushion, Italy is still priced at +245.

The run total is sitting at 11.5 with the over slightly favored at -117.

Odds as of March 10. New customers can claim the Kalshi referral code and get a bonus to bet on the World Baseball Classic.