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KBO Picks & Odds (July 11): All Aboard the Aaron Brooks Train

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in News

Jul 10, 2020 · 1:38 PM PDT

Brandon Hyde of the Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers struggled in 2019. With their 2020 win totals set, can either hit the over? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • KIA’s Aaron Brooks has allowed one run or less in three straight starts
  • Lotte ranks third-worst in runs per game, and have hit the second fewest home runs
  • Find odds and best bets for the KBO’s five-game slate on July 11th in the article below

The weekend is upon us and what better way to start your Saturday morning than with some KBO sweats. All 10 teams return to the diamond at 5:00 am EST, including Kiwoom and KIA who are fresh off a wild extra-innings affair.

The Tigers blew a 7-2 lead before clawing out a victory in the 11th, and will need a quality outing from Aaron Brooks to rest their tired bullpen. Fortunately for KIA, Brooks has been lights out recently.

 KBO Odds: Saturday, July 11th

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Doosan Bears -170 -1.5 (-125) Over 12.0 (-115) 5:00 a.m.
Lotte Giants +140 +1.5 (-105) Under 12.0 (-115)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
SK Wyverns -150 -1.5 (+110) Over 9.5 (-115) 5:00 a.m.
Hanwha Eagles +120 +1.5 (-140) Under 9.5 (-115)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Kiwoom Heroes +125 +1.5 (-155) Over 9.0 (-110) 5:00 a.m.
KIA Tigers -155 -1.5 (+125) Under 9.0 (-120)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Samsung Lions -110 +1.5 (-185) Over 10.5 (-115) 5:00 a.m.
KT Wiz Suwon -120 -1.5 (+155) Under 10.5 (-115)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
NC Dinos -155 -1.5 (-110) Over 9.5 (-115) 5:00 a.m.
LG Twins +125 +1.5 (-120) Under 9.5 (-115)

Odds as of July 10th.

Brooks is Ballin’

The right-hander is fresh off 7.2 innings of one-run ball versus first place NC, and has allowed a single run or less in three straight starts. That stretch includes a 6-inning performance against these same Heroes, in which he limited them to one run, while striking out eight.

Aaron Brooks Last Three Starts

Opponent IP HA ER BB K
NC 7.2 4 1 1 6
KIW 6.0 6 1 2 8
LOT 7.0 1 0 3 6

He now ranks among the KBO’s top-five in ERA and WHIP, and has produced a quality start in seven of his last eight outings.

Kiwoom meanwhile, will counter Seung Ho Lee, who lasted just 2 innings in his last start. That night, he gave up six runs to KT Wiz, marking the second time he’s allowed at least that many runs to the Suwon this season. Prior to that outing, he did pitch well against Doosan, LG and Lotte, but he’s also been roughed up by NC and Samsung.

Under 9 is enticing here, but given Lee’s propensity for blowups, KIA straight up is the preferred play.

Pick: KIA Tigers moneyline (-155)

Bears and Giants Stay Under

It’s rare that we see a KBO total reach 12, but when it does the game usually involves the Doosan Bears. The defending champs crossed the plate 10 times on Friday versus Lotte, marking the fourth time in five outings that their games have gone over the total.

If Doosan is going to play in another high scoring affair on Saturday, they’re likely going to have to do most of the damage themselves. The Giants ranks third-worst in runs scored, and only Hanwha has hit fewer home runs.

A big reason why so many runs are expected are the starting pitchers, but that may be a bit misleading. Lotte starter Se Woong Park has a 5.71 ERA but has pitched much better recently. He’s allowed three runs over 6 innings in back-to-back starts, and limited the Bears to a single run when they met on May 14th.

It’s a little tougher to make a case for Doosan starter Hui Kwan Yu, but the light-hitting Giants are nothing to fear. Lotte is 2-5 versus the Bears this season, and have averaged just 4.6 runs in their last five outings against Doosan.

Pick: Under 12.0 (-115)

KT Wiz Crushes Lefties

KT Wiz has absolutely dominated left-handed pitchers this season and they did so again on Friday en route to an 8-3 win versus Samsung.

The Lions will trot out another southpaw on Saturday (Chae Heung Choi), which is music to the Suwon’s ears. KT Wiz is hitting .311 against lefties in 2020, while averaging 7.5 runs per game. Choi has pitched better in his last three starts, but each of those outings were against bottom-five offenses.

KT Wiz ranks second in average, second in home runs and second in hits, which could make for a long night for the Lions starter.

Pick: KT Wiz Suwon moneyline (-120)

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