MLB Betting – 3 Underachievers at Quarterpole

Last week, I looked at which MLB teams are a bit overvalued a quarter of the way through the season. I highlighted three teams – the Orioles, Phillies, and Giants – that are playing well, but better than should be expected for the rest of the campaign.

Now let’s do the opposite. What squads are better than their current record and provide some betting value? Who should we wager on as the season moves along?

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have the second-best run differential in the National League, yet they are just over .500 and in third-place in the NL Central. A big piece to the puzzle is the fact that St. Louis is just 3-7 in one-run games, a category that generally evens itself out. Additionally, the Cards are contending despite lackluster work from dependable starters. Proven winners like Adam Wainwright (5.71 ERA), Michael Wacha (4.99 ERA), and Carlos Martinez (3.69 ERA) will likely see those inflated ERAs go down and approach their career averages by the end of the year.

In sum, St. Louis is contending despite bad luck and below average play. At some point, those trends are likely to change.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were the preseason favorite in the NL West. They trail the Giants (who have the second-best record in the entire sport) in the standings, but there are several reasons to believe LA is the better team.

The Giants are playing .600 ball despite a minimally positive run differential. The Dodgers are much better in that key indicator. San Francisco has also played a higher percentage of home games and won an NL-high 12 one-run games. LA is only 5-8 in one-run games. While the Giants have gotten incredible – and probably unsustainable – efforts from starters Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, the Dodgers are receiving just about what they expect from their core at this stage.

Los Angeles Angels

Just about all the metrics suggest the Angels should be around .500. They’re barely in the negatives in run differential and average in one-run games, yet they’re closer to the bottom of the AL West than the top.

A tough schedule is part of the issue so far. The Halos have faced the fifth-toughest slate to date. Strangely, they’ve also been poor at home.

As expected, the top-heavy lineup struggles to get production from anyone other than Mike Trout. The rotation doesn’t look a lot rosier, but even the most pessimistic were probably hoping for more from starters Hector Santiago, Jered Weaver, and Matt Shoemaker. There’s mild reason for optimism with the return of closer Huston Street.

If some of the Angels better players get it together, they should be around .500 or better at the end of the year.

(Photo credit: Dave Herholz on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)