2018 MLB Mock Draft: Casey Mize Odds-On Favorite to Be #1 Pick
- The Detroit Tigers are on the clock for the 2018 MLB Draft.
- Unlike many years, one prospect is a heavy favorite to be selected first overall.
- Who is the best fit for each of the teams in the top ten?
The Detroit Tigers own the first-overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and are in dire need of an elite starting pitching prospect as they go all-in on their rebuild.
Lucky for GM Al Avila, the Auburn Tigers have just such a player on their staff.
Below, we look at the odds on who the Tigers will take at no. 1, and then find the best fits for the rest of the teams picking in the top ten.
2018 MLB Draft: 1st-Overall Odds
| PROSPECT (POS, TEAM) | MEASUREMENTS | NOTES | #1 PICK ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize (RHP, Auburn) | 6’3, 220 lbs | Power pitcher who pairs a high-90s fastball with a plus-plus splitter (a combo that’s working for Shohei Ohtani) plus elite control. Miles ahead of other 2018 pitching prospects in terms of development thanks largely to the aforementioned splitter. | 1/4 |
| Jarred Kelenic (OF, Waukesha West HS) |
6’1, 195 lbs | Arguably the best hitting prospect in the 2018 class. Great hit tool, above average power, and good (though sub-elite) speed. Highest upside of the 2018 position players. | 24/1 |
| Brady Singer (RHP, Florida) | 6’5, 180 lbs | Lanky flamethrower who reaches the upper 90s, already has a usable slider, and is developing a better changeup. No. 1 prospect entering the year. Dropped after a slow start. Bouncing back with a strong finish. | 28/1 |
| Nick Madrigal (2B, Oregon State) | 5’7, 160 lbs | Diminutive contact hitter with great speed and hands. Could develop more power in the vein of a Scooter Gennett. | 32/1 |
| Joey Bart (C, Georgia Tech) |
6’3, 225 lbs | Decent hitter with improving power and a cannon from behind the plate. Doesn’t wow in any one area, but is solid — at minimum — in all facets. Below the likes of Kelenic and Madrigal because catching isn’t a big need for Detroit. | 32/1 |
| FIELD | N/A | N/A | 14/1 |
2018 Mock Draft: Top 10
(1) Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize (RHP, Auburn)
See above. Mize is a prize. His ceiling? The skies!
(2) San Francisco Giants: Joey Bart (C, Georgia Tech)
The Giants know the value of a franchise catcher. Bart becomes the heir apparent to Buster Posey, who’s set to turn 32 next year.
(3) Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm (3B, Wichita State)
A glance at the Phillies’ prospect rankings reveals a glaring hole at third base. The development of pitcher Sixto Sanchez alleviates the need to go in search of a future ace here. Bohm is 6’5, 240 pounds, and has the kind of power you would expect from someone that size. But he’s also disciplined at the plate, which will help teams overlook his subpar defensive forecast.
(4) Chicago White Sox: Nick Madrigal (2B, Oregon State)
The White Sox don’t have a single infielder among their top-ten prospects, according to MLB Pipeline. Madrigal’s size would have been a much bigger concern about five years ago, but the way shorter players like Jose Altuve and Mookie Betts are crushing the ball these days makes it much easier to project decent power for Madrigal, whose hit tool is tremendous.
(5) Cincinnati Reds: Matthew Liberatore (LHP, Mountain Ridge HS)
The Reds have a nice mix of infielders, outfielders, and pitchers among their top prospects. A lefty pitcher would fill a need. Matthew Liberatore is arguably the best in this class and should be the first prep player off the board.
Given how advanced his control and feel are for a kid his age … [Liberatore] could make four teams look foolish for passing on him in the years to come.
The high-schooler is already 6’5, 200 pounds, and capable of throwing in the high 90s on a good day. As he gets stronger, his fastball will be in that range more consistently. Given how advanced his control and feel are for a kid his age, plus the fact that he’s showing solid progress on three secondary pitches (curve, slider, change), he could make four teams look foolish for passing on him in the years to come.
(6) New York Mets: Brady Singer (RHP, Florida)
Singer’s upside is too good for the Mets to pass on here, even though hitting/outfield are bigger concerns. As mentioned above, Singer’s electric stuff had him ranked no. 1 coming into the year, and he’s living up to that billing later in the season.
(7) San Diego Padres: Carter Stewart (RHP, Eau Gallie HS)
Linked to a number of HS pitchers, San Diego will have a few great options at no. 7. Stewart has a plus fastball that could reach triple digits in time — since it’s already touching 98 and he has ample room to grow at 6’6, 200 pounds — in addition to a devastating curve.
(8) Atlanta Braves: Jonathan India (3B, Florida)
The Braves’ upper-echelon prospects are almost exclusively pitchers. The fact that they signed Jose Bautista to play 3B (a position he hasn’t played in years) should tell you everything you need to know about the status of the hot corner in Hotlanta. Nolan Gorman, a high schooler out of Arizona, has more potential as a power hitter, but Florida’s Jonathan India projects as a much better defender and has developed into a solid all-round hitter, leading Florida in both average (.376) and home runs (16).
(9) Oakland Athletics: Jackson Kowar (RHP, Florida)
A third Gator in the top ten? Very possible. Injuries to James Kaprielian may have boosted right-handed pitching to the top of Oakland’s list of needs, and Kowar is one of the best options left after Mize, Singer, and Stewart, especially if you want someone from the college ranks, which the A’s probably do. His fastball is in the high 90s and pairs well with a low 80s changeup. His lanky frame and easy throwing motion project good longevity.
(10) Pittsburgh Pirates: Jarred Kelenic (OF, Waukesha West HS)
The Pirates won’t hesitate to take a swing on a high-upside prep bat at no. 10. Kelenic is quick enough to play CF (though his ability to stay there as he works his way up the ranks is debatable) and will eventually develop into a disciplined, high-contact lefty bat in the bigs. His power tool is only a 50 (on the 20-80 scale) at the moment, but he will improve in that area as he grows.
There’s a good chance he’s off the board here if one of the teams above eschews pitching in favor of hitting.
Have a different take on what these teams should do with their first-round picks? Let us know in the comments, on Twitter, or on Facebook.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
