2018 MLB Player Futures: Scherzer’s A Sure Bet

• Oddsmakers have published their annual win projections for baseball’s top starters.
• Will Max Scherzer turn in another Cy Young-worthy performance?
• Will Justin Verlander pick up right where he left off in the postseason?  

Major League scouts aren’t the only ones who are watching Spring Training games with interest this year. The oddsmakers have also been keenly observing every pitch and have come up with projected win totals for 19 of the game’s top hurlers. Cy Young winners like Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander are all expected to be among this year’s big winners, as are young guns like Aaron Nola and Luis Severino.

We’ve taken a close look at the numbers and have found tremendous value in the win totals for five pitchers. We’ve outlined our selections below and encourage you to pounce on ’em now while you still can.

Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angeles): Under 10.5 Wins

It’s important not to read too much into a Spring Training start, but Ohtani looked awful in his Big League debut on Saturday against the Brewers. The 23-year-old gave up a deep double and a tape measure homerun and was chased off the mound after just one and a third innings. Most troubling of all was his lack of control, as Ohtani threw just 17 of his 31 pitches for strikes and consistently struggled with his command. The way things are shaping up, the so-called “Japanese Babe Ruth” may make a much bigger impact at the plate than on the mound.

Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies): Over 13.5 Wins

Get used to hearing Aaron Nola’s name. The 24-year-old ace is set to become Philadelphia’s youngest Opening Day starter since 1964 after a season in which he went 12-11 and struck out 184 batters in 168 innings. The key to his success is a nasty, sweeping curve that has more horizontal movement than any other starter in the Majors.

Getting 14 wins on a rebuilding team is never an easy task, but Nola has the kind of electric stuff that should allow him to make plenty of noise even when Philadelphia’s bats go quiet.

Luis Severino (New York Yankees): Over 14.5 Wins

Unlike Nola, Luis Severino should have a surplus of runs to work with this season thanks to New York’s acquisition of 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. The 6-foot-6 slugger hit a career-high 59 homers last season and is expected to hit in the two slot ahead of fellow mashers Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, and Gary Sanchez.

Severino is just entering his second full season, but he’s the unquestioned ace of the staff after going 14-6, with a 2.98 ERA in 31 starts in 2017.

Severino is just entering his second full season, but he’s the unquestioned ace of the staff after going 14-6, with a 2.98 ERA in 31 starts in 2017. Expect him to build upon last year’s success as he matures along with the rest of the Baby Bombers.

Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Under 15.5 Wins

Which version of Justin Verlander will the Astros get this year? Will they get the washed-up hurler who went 10-8 with a 3.82 ERA in Detroit last season, or the lights-out ace who won the ALCS after crushing the Yankees? We’re betting the answer lies somewhere in between. As good as Verlander was in October, the big righty just turned 35 earlier this month and has been slowly regressing since his Cy Young season in 2011. Pencil him in for 13 wins and a few more big moments in the postseason as he settles into his role as a bankable – but no longer dominant – starter.

Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): Over 16.5 Wins 

Max Scherzer will eventually slow down one day, but it won’t be in 2018. The five-time All-Star won his second straight Cy Young award last season after leading the NL in strikeouts, WHIP and hits per nine innings, and appears to be getting better with age. Scherzer has led the league in starts in two of the last three years, and should be good for another 32 games and 18 wins on what figures to be a playoff-bound Nationals squad.