- MLB’s opening day is slated for March 28
- O/Us for 70 different players home run totals
- Who are the best bets? Where do they have the game’s biggest sluggers finishing?
As the MLB season draws closer, it’s time to explore the available props. Let’s look at home runs.
Last year, 5,585 home runs were hit. The Yankees led the league with 267, while the Marlins hit the fewest with 128. That’s after the Giancarlo Stanton trade, as he smashed 38 home runs.
This year, Stanton is one of four players with their total set at 39.5.
2019 MLB Home Run Over/Unders
|Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)||39.5||-125||-105|
|Aaron Judge (NYY)||39.5||+105||-135|
|Khris Davis (OAK)||39.5||-125||-105|
|JD Martinez (BOS)||39.5||-115||-115|
|Mike Trout (LAA)||38.5||-115||-115|
|Jose Ramirez (CLE)||29.5||-115||-115|
|Jose Abreu (CWS)||29.5||+110||-140|
|Alex Bregman (HOU)||29.5||+105||-135|
|Juan Soto (WSH)||27.5||-115||-115|
|Josh Donaldson (ATL)||24.5||-115||-115|
*Odds taken 3/2; follow the link in the table to see odds for all 70 players available
Stanton is joined by Aaron Judge, Khris Davis, and JD Martinez. We’ve highlighted some interesting names to keep tabs on.
Expect Big Home Run Totals at Top of the Odds?
The four names at the top of the list aren’t surprising.
Khris Davis led baseball in home runs last year, with Martinez trailing him by five. Stanton and Judge finished first and second in 2017, with Martinez and Davis following them.
However you look at it, the track records indicate they should be among the leaders.
Home Runs by Year
|Giancarlo Stanton (NYY/MIA)||38||59||27||27||38|
|Aaron Judge (NYY)||27||52||4||N/A||28|
|Khris Davis (OAK/MIL)||48||43||42||27||40|
|JD Martinez (BOS/ARZ/DET)||43||45||22||38||37|
In the past two seasons, the four have combined for two 50-homer seasons and four with 40. The least productive season was the 27 home runs from Judge last year.
Even then, he reached that total in 112 games. That works out to 34 long bombs if he plays 140 games, and 36 if he plays 150.
How Big 4 Will Fare in 2019
The player we may have the most confidence in is Khris Davis.
Khrush plays in one of the worst hitters parks in the league, but it hasn’t slowed him down.
Khris Davis’ Stats in Oakland
Still just 30 years old, he should go over barring injury.
The same can be said for JD Martinez, who seamlessly transitioned to Boston, nearly winning a Triple Crown.
So that leaves the Yankees duo.
Expect one, or both, to go under.
Aaron Judge steps in for a round of BP. Take 5 swings. Hits 4 homers. Congratulates a kid on a nice catch. pic.twitter.com/0aOW6PuT9j
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) February 28, 2019
Stanton has played 159 and 158 games the last two years, so he’s been healthy. But healthy or not, he has hit his projected over just once in his career.
Aaron Judge may be getting a little too much love, too. We already broke down what it would have taken him to get to 36 last year. His 52-homer rookie year will likely be more exception than norm.
Is Trout Worth Consideration in Home Run Race?
Mike Trout is baseball’s generational talent. He’s also its greatest five-tool player.
Trout had his highest home run total (39) in 2018 since he hit 41 in 2015. Over his career though, he’s averaged 36.5 homers over 162 games.
— MLB (@MLB) February 27, 2019
For a guy that consistently hits .300 and steals 20+ bases, back-to-back 38+ home run seasons seems unlikely.
Under the Radar Home Run Targets
On the table above, we picked out a couple of our favorite names.
Here’s how their past three seasons stack up with the projections.
Regular Season vs Over/Unders Odds
|Jose Ramirez (CLE)||29.5||39||29||11|
|Jose Abreu (CWS)||29.5||22||33||25|
|Alex Bregman (HOU)||29.5||31||19||8|
|Juan Soto (WSH)||27.5||22||N/A||N/A|
|Josh Donaldson (ATL/CLE/TOR)||24.5||8||33||37|
Jose Ramirez faces -115 odds either way, but we like the over.
Ramirez has been on the rise since he started playing full time in 2016. While he may not touch 39 again, 30 is achievable for the 26-year-old.
I missed watching Jose Abreu hit dingers. Thank god baseball is back.pic.twitter.com/bCTQsOyAgF
— Mike (@ChiSoxFanMike) March 2, 2019
Abreu seems like he’s on the downswing of his career, but he had a solid end to 2018. Abreu hit 12 home runs through his first 80 games, but pounded out 10 over his last 48.
Plus odds aren’t available on too many overs, but Abreu is worth a gamble.
Soto, Donaldson, Bregman All Offer Home Run Intrigue
Juan Soto is a tough read. He’s got -115 odds both ways, so it could be a gut play.
He averaged .18 HR/game in the minors, which was in line with his .19 HR/game last year. If there’s no sophomore slump, he would go over if he plays in 150 games.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) February 27, 2019
Josh Donaldson at 24.5 seems low, but it depends if his quad injury crops up again. If it doesn’t end his season, he should cross 25. He battled it in 2017 with the Blue Jays and came back to hit 33 homers.
It's a better version of the Indians signing Hanley. NO risk what so ever and ENORMOUS upside potential. Tulo and Josh Donaldson, imo, are both going to have monster years. I'm saying they could very well be both leagues CPotY.
— Curt Schilling (@gehrig38) February 25, 2019
We’ll close with an easy one.
At just 24, Alex Bregman already has three major league seasons under his belt. Plus odds to go over 30 once again is an easy play, especially considering he’s in a loaded Astros offense.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.