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Mets’ Pennant Odds Sink to +2400; NYM Now 4 Games out of Playoff Spot

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Sep 3, 2019 · 8:26 PM PDT

Jacob deGrom
The Mets pennant odds are fading fast. Is there still time for New York to make late season playoff push? Photo by slgckgc (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The Mets’ NL Pennant odds have dropped to +2400 after seven losses in their last 10
  • New York is 5.0 games out of the NL’s final Wild Card spot, but has three teams in front of them
  • Is there any value betting the Mets to win the pennant?

Two weeks ago, the New York Mets appeared destined to make a playoff push. Since then, they’ve come crashing down to earth with eight losses in their last 11 games, and are no longer considered a serious National League contender.

[Editor’s note: this article was written before the Mets’ epic six-run ninth-inning collapse against Washington on Tuesday. But that loss only adds credence to the arguments made herein.]

Odds to Win 2019 National League Pennant

Team Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers -110
Atlanta Braves +450
St. Louis Cardinals +800
Washington Nationals +900
Chicago Cubs +1100
Philadelphia Phillies +2000
New York Mets +2000
Milwaukee Brewers +3300
Arizona Diamondbacks +5000

*Odds taken 09/03/19.

The Mets’ average NL Pennant odds have dropped to +2400, and although some books are slightly more bullish on them than the market, they’re still an extreme long shot to even make the playoffs.

The Mets Will Need a Miracle

The Mets are currently four games out of the NL’s final Wild Card spot with 25 games to play. They have a 13.5% chance to make the postseason according to FanGraphs, while the Cubs, who currently occupy the last playoff spot, have a 79.6% probability of playing October baseball.

On paper, Chicago appears to be the much better team and they demonstrated that by sweeping the Mets a week ago. They have a run differential that is +53 better than New York, and own superior statistics in nearly every major batting and pitching category.

Unfortunately for the Mets, they not only have to worry about the Cubs, but also the Phillies and Diamondbacks, who both entered play Tuesday ahead of them in the standings.

An Unfavorable Schedule Awaits

The good news for New York is that they still have games remaining against both Philadelphia and Arizona. The bad news is that they’ll also face the Nationals, Dodgers and Braves before season’s end. Fifteen of the Mets’ final 25 games are versus teams currently holding or fighting for a playoff spot, which equates to one of the toughest remaining schedules in the National League.

The Phillies’ remaining schedule is just as tough, if not tougher, but both the Cubs and Diamondbacks will face inferior competition for most of their remaining games. For New York to have any chance of making the postseason, they’ll likely need to win at least 75% of their final 25 games, and even that might not be good enough to surpass the Cubs.

New York’s Not a Pennant Contender

The Mets have won just two pennants since their last championship team in 1986 and that number will remain the same after this season is over. New York sunk its championship aspirations with a disastrous finish to August, and now they’re an extreme underdog just to make the playoffs.

Instead of lighting money on fire by betting the Mets to win the pennant, consider backing their division rivals from Washington. The Nationals have won 17 of their last 21 and have the best starting-pitching trio in baseball.

Their +119 run differential is second only to the Dodgers in the NL, and +900 seems like extreme value for the hottest team in baseball.

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