- The Mets’ NL Pennant odds have dropped to +2400 after seven losses in their last 10
- New York is 5.0 games out of the NL’s final Wild Card spot, but has three teams in front of them
- Is there any value betting the Mets to win the pennant?
Two weeks ago, the New York Mets appeared destined to make a playoff push. Since then, they’ve come crashing down to earth with eight losses in their last 11 games, and are no longer considered a serious National League contender.
[Editor’s note: this article was written before the Mets’ epic six-run ninth-inning collapse against Washington on Tuesday. But that loss only adds credence to the arguments made herein.]
Odds to Win 2019 National League Pennant
|Los Angeles Dodgers||-110|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+800|
|New York Mets||+2000|
*Odds taken 09/03/19.
The Mets’ average NL Pennant odds have dropped to +2400, and although some books are slightly more bullish on them than the market, they’re still an extreme long shot to even make the playoffs.
The Mets Will Need a Miracle
The Mets are currently four games out of the NL’s final Wild Card spot with 25 games to play. They have a 13.5% chance to make the postseason according to FanGraphs, while the Cubs, who currently occupy the last playoff spot, have a 79.6% probability of playing October baseball.
Cubs win! Cubs SWEEP!
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 30, 2019
On paper, Chicago appears to be the much better team and they demonstrated that by sweeping the Mets a week ago. They have a run differential that is +53 better than New York, and own superior statistics in nearly every major batting and pitching category.
Unfortunately for the Mets, they not only have to worry about the Cubs, but also the Phillies and Diamondbacks, who both entered play Tuesday ahead of them in the standings.
— NYM Fans (@NYM_fans) September 4, 2019
An Unfavorable Schedule Awaits
The good news for New York is that they still have games remaining against both Philadelphia and Arizona. The bad news is that they’ll also face the Nationals, Dodgers and Braves before season’s end. Fifteen of the Mets’ final 25 games are versus teams currently holding or fighting for a playoff spot, which equates to one of the toughest remaining schedules in the National League.
The Phillies’ remaining schedule is just as tough, if not tougher, but both the Cubs and Diamondbacks will face inferior competition for most of their remaining games. For New York to have any chance of making the postseason, they’ll likely need to win at least 75% of their final 25 games, and even that might not be good enough to surpass the Cubs.
New York’s Not a Pennant Contender
The Mets have won just two pennants since their last championship team in 1986 and that number will remain the same after this season is over. New York sunk its championship aspirations with a disastrous finish to August, and now they’re an extreme underdog just to make the playoffs.
— Matt Higgins (@MattHiggins80) September 4, 2019
Instead of lighting money on fire by betting the Mets to win the pennant, consider backing their division rivals from Washington. The Nationals have won 17 of their last 21 and have the best starting-pitching trio in baseball.
There are 4 NL pitchers with 200+ strikeouts.
3 of them are Washington Nationals.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 1, 2019
Their +119 run differential is second only to the Dodgers in the NL, and +900 seems like extreme value for the hottest team in baseball.
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