2019 NLDS Picks & Preview – Cardinals vs Braves; Nationals vs Dodgers

• Both 2019 NLDS series start on Thursday, Oct. 3rd
• The Braves are -145 favorites against the Cardinals
• The Dodgers are -225 to oust the Nationals

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October baseball has finally arrived. After closing out a 162-game season, the playoffs are now upon us. Down to just four teams in the National League, let’s break down the  best-of-five NLDS and find the best value in the latest MLB playoff odds.

Cardinals vs Braves Series Price

The expectation coming into the 2019 season for the Atlanta Braves certainly wasn’t the second-best record in the National League. However, the Braves have continued to prove their doubters wrong, especially late in games.

From the seventh inning on, no team in the MLB has been better than the Braves. With 308 runs scored and 94 home runs hit in the seventh inning or later and a bullpen that’s produced the NL’s second-best ERA (3.53) from Aug. 15 through the end of the season, this Braves team isn’t a team to sleep on.

As for the Cardinals, their own bullpen has been remarkably consistent, producing a 3.94 ERA dating back to Aug. 15. But the focus of their rotation is certainly on ace Jack Flaherty, who’s not only the hottest pitcher in baseball right now, but may be the best starting pitcher remaining in the National League.

Flaherty, who’s scheduled to pitch Game 2 on Friday, puts the Braves in almost a “must win” spot on Thursday night due to his recent dominance. He’s nearly impossible to hit right now. His 11-8 record and 2.75 era are weighed down by a dismal start to the year. Over his last 12 starts, he’s given up seven earned runs total. He posted a 0.91 ERA after the All-Star break.

[Jack Flaherty] may be the best starting pitcher remaining in the National League … He posted a 0.91 ERA after the All-Star break.

For the season, Flaherty generated a staggering 30.7% swings-and-misses, the most by any Cardinals’ pitcher in at least 30 years (which is when they started recording the stat). Only 15.1% of his pitches were even put in play. In 12 of his 33 starts this year, he didn’t give up a single run.

While the Cardinals are likely to get at least one game of spectacular starting pitching, I just can’t see them knocking off an Atlanta team that has been such an offensive juggernaut this season. Not to mention the run support for the Cardinals starting pitchers has disappeared at times.

My favorite bet with respect to the Cardinals vs Braves Game 1 odds is on the Atlanta offense getting off to a hot start against St. Louis Cardinals’ starter Miles Mikolas. Mikolas was the least-profitable pitcher this season in the first five innings, going 8-17-7 (32.0%).

Nationals vs Dodgers Series Price

For about 8.5 innings, it appeared that the Nationals’ playoff curse would continue. But a costly error by Brewers’ outfielder Tent Grisham propelled the Nationals to their first lead in the NL Wild Card Game and, eventually, a 4-3 win.

The victory marked their first triumph in a postseason series since 1981 when the team was still in Montreal.

Now the Nationals will travel to Los Angeles where they’ll face Walker Buehler in Game 1.

This is a true David and Goliath matchup as the Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t just one of the best teams this season, but one of the best teams in this decade. The Dodgers scored the most runs and allowed the fewest in the NL this season, producing a run differential of +273, which is the third-best of any team in this century, behind only the 2001 Seattle Mariners (+300) and the 2019 Houston Astros (+280).

The Dodgers scored the most runs and allowed the fewest in the NL this season, producing a run differential of +273 … third-best of any team in this century.

The Nationals struggled with a Brewers team missing MVP contender Christian Yelich, and already burned both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburger in the Wild Card Game. It’s hard to see them hanging with the Dodgers in a five-game series, given the bullpen’s struggles this year.

Yes, Clayton Kershaw’s fastball velocity is a career-low 90.4 mph this season and, at times, this Dodgers staff has been hit hard, but their offense will be just too much for the Nationals to handle.