Opening 2020 AL Playoff Odds Favor the Exact Same Field as Last Year; Who Could Surprise?

• Each team who participated in the 2019 postseason is favored in the opening odds to return to the AL playoffs in 2020
• Following the trade of Mookie Betts & David Price, the Boston Red Sox are just +210 to reach the postseason
• We look at the odds of some teams who could surprise, and some who could disappoint

Opening day of the 2020 MLB season is just over a month away, but despite all the distractions, the Astros are favored to make it back to the playoffs.

In fact, all five 2019 American League playoff teams are expected to go back to the postseason.

With so much that could potentially happen over a long year, there are bound to be a few surprises.

2020 Opening American League Playoff Odds

Bold indicates 2019 playoff team

Look, as much as everyone hates them, unless Rob Manfred suddenly changes his mind on player punishment, the Astros are going to the playoffs. Losing Gerrit Cole will hurt, but they’re postseason bound.

The same goes for the Yankees.

Official winter winners: 1. White Sox 2. Reds 3. Yankees 4. D-Backs 5. Dodgers. Losers: 1-5. Astros

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 12, 2020

Tampa Bay, as always, is an unassuming playoff favorite. Over at Scout.com, the Rays are averaging 94.4 wins per simulation, which would likely have them in line for a Wild Card spot.

If you’re relying on Scout.com, they’re equally positive about the Twins. After that, it’s the rest of the AL, with a slight advantage to the Indians.

Indians, White Sox Lurking in Central

Speaking of Cleveland, both the Indians (+150) and White Sox (+175) provide intriguing playoff value.

Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez will bolster Chicago’s rotation, while Edwin Encarnacion, Nomar Mazara and Yasmani Grandal improve the offense. Youngsters Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada should improve as well.

James McCann on #WhiteSox 2020 expectations: "The moves that were made in the offseason, it’s win now, and it’s not just get to the playoffs, it’s win a World Series."

— Mike Berman (@MikeBermanNBC) February 12, 2020

With the chance to beat up on the Royals and Tigers, the White Sox have to contend with Cleveland and Minnesota. They went 11-8 against the Indians last year, but stumbled against Minny going 6-13.

For Cleveland, there’s a little hesitation.

The Indians (93) had the most wins of any non-playoff team. Trading Corey Kluber won’t hurt them, because he barely had any impact on the 2019 results. Even if Carlos Carrasco doesn’t reach his normal levels of dominance, you can do way worse with a number three starter.

https://youtu.be/YFmdVOff1FQ?t=42

Normally we’d side with the better pitching staff, but the Indians offence may hold them back. And who knows what’s happening with Francisco Lindor?

If you’re looking for a surprise in the Central, consider the White Sox.

Pick: Chicago White Sox (+175)

Could Revamped Angels Surprise?

The Angels grabbed plenty of headlines in the off-season when they landed Anthony Rendon. A lineup featuring Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Rendon is terrifying.

But there are some questions.

There's no wrong answer. Really. pic.twitter.com/D0GCVGdWG8

— MLB (@MLB) February 11, 2020

Justin Upton needs to be healthy and Albert Pujols has to be the 2019 version of himself rather than the ’18 one.

Pitching-wise, it could be a bumpy ride. It only took Ohtani a month to adjust to MLB hitters in 2018, but what will life post-Tommy John bring? And what of the rotation trio of Andrew Heaney, Dylan Bundy and Griffin Canning?

The bats are there, but we fear it’ll be another playoff-less season for Trout and company as the arms hold them back.

Pick: Angels MISS playoffs (-220)

Could Red Sox or Blue Jays Sneak in?

If this were to happen, it would almost be unprecedented. But could the Toronto Blue Jays really go from 67-95 to a playoff spot?

There are plenty of positive vibes coming from the team. There’s a dynamic young core, and they went out and added the arms they needed.

But unless starters two-through-five significantly outperform their projections, the Jays won’t be able to make a big enough jump.

#RedSox rotation without David Price would be:

Chris Sale
Eduardo Rodriguez
Nate Eovaldi
Martin Perez
Mystery Guest/Openers

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) February 5, 2020

As for the Red Sox, they still have firepower after trading Mookie Betts, but dumping David Price doesn’t help a pitching staff that needs help.

With the rotation they’re about to trot out, they’re not worth an investment in February.

Pick: Blue Jays (-800) and Red Sox (-250) MISS playoffs