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Astros vs Phillies Game 5 Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Nov 2, 2022 · 9:13 PM PDT

Astros vs Phillies Game 5 Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers
Oct 28, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) looks on against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning in game one of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Houston Astros are -159 road favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 5 of the World Series on Thursday, November 3
  • The best-of-seven series is deadlocked at 2-2
  • With AL Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander on the mound, the Game 5 Astros vs Phillies odds favor Houston

As the Houston Astros (9-2, 4-1 away) and Philadelphia Phillies (11-4, 6-1 home) arrive at Game 5 of the World Series, there’s no understating the importance of a Game 5 victory.

Houston and Philadelphia are each sitting with two wins. Since the LCS were expanded to seven-game series in 1985, this is the 34th time that two teams have reached this point of a series deadlocked at 2-2. In that scenario, the Game 5 winner has gone on to capture the set in 22 of the prior 33 occasions (66.7%).

Teams coming home after winning Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead, as the Astros would be in this World Series, have won 9 of 11 series (81.8%).

Oddsmakers have set the Astros as -159 away favorites to take Game 5. Philadelphia hasn’t lost back-to-back home games since September 24-25.

Astros vs Phillies Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros -159 -1.5 (+105) O 7.5 (-109)
Philadelphia Phillies +135 +1.5 (-130) U 7.5 (-109)

Odds updated on Nov. 2, 2022, at Barstool Sportsbook. Get a Barstool Sportsbook bonus code.

At moneyline odds of -159, the Astros have an implied win probability of 61.39%. A successful $10 wager on Houston would create a payout of $16.30.

 

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First pitch at Citizens Bank Park goes at 8:03 pm ET on Thursday, November 3. The Astros are given -200 odds to go on to take the World Series in the MLB playoff bracket.

Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper is the favorite to win the World Series MVP Award at a betting line of +375. A 4-2 Astros victory is set as the most probable series outcome at odds of +175.

Philadelphia vs Houston Probable Pitchers

In the MLB lineups, Astros right-hander Justin Verlander will yet again be seeking his first career World Series victory. The overwhelming favorite in the AL Cy Young Award odds, Verlander is absolutely abysmal on the bump during his Fall Classic appearances.

In Game 1, he surrendered five earned runs in five innings. Verlander ultimately didn’t figure in the decision as Houston blew a 5-0 lead and lost 6-5 in extra innings. However, in eight World Series starts he’s now 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA. The Astros are 1-7 as a team in World Series games started by Verlander.

Verlander led the American League this season with an 18-4 slate and a 1.75 ERA. His winning percentage (.818), hits per nine innings (6.0), and WHIP (.083) were also league-leading totals.

Verlander vs Syndergaard Stats

Noah Syndergaard
VS
Lance McCullers Jr
18-4 Record 10-10
1.75 ERA 3.94
2.66 xERA 4.43
0.83 WHIP 1.26
6.38 SO/W Ratio 3.44

Phillies right-hander Noah Syndergaard was originally slated to start Game 3. However, when that game was rained out, Phillies manager Rob Thomson was opting to shake up his rotation, moving Syndergaard to Game 5.

He’s showing a better won-lost record (5-2) with the Phillies since arriving in a midseason deal from the Los Angeles Angels, where he was 5-8. However, his ERA is higher with the Phillies (4.12) than the Angels (3.83).

Syndergaard will be making his fourth appearance and second start of the 2022 MLB Postseason. He was handed the ball for Game 4 of the NLDS against the Braves. Syndergaard went just three innings, allowing one hit and one earned run in Philadelphia’s 8-3 victory.

He’ll also be making his second World Series start. Syndergaard went to the hill for Game 3 of the 2015 World Series. Working six innings and allowing three earned runs, he got the win for the New York Mets in a 9-3 verdict over the Kansas City Royals.

Syndergaard has made two starts against the Astros. He’s 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA. He beat Verlander 2-0 on April 9, the first start for both pitchers since their return from Tommy John surgery.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Phillies Batters Batting Average vs Verlander Astros Batters Batting Average vs Syndergaard
Alec Bohm .500 Jose Altuve .000
Nick Castellanos .333 Alex Bregman .500
Bryce Harper .333 Aledmys Diaz .333
Rhys Hoskins .333 Chas McCormick .500
Brandon Marsh .500 Kyle Tucker .333
JT Realmuto .333 Christian Vazquez .500

Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm is 1-for-2 with two RBI off of Verlander. JT Realmuto has also driven in two runs and is 1-for-3 (.333). Brandon Marsh is 1-for-2 (.500), while both Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are 1-for-3 (.333).

Houston’s Aledmys Diaz is 2-for-6 (.333) facing Syndergaard, with a homer and two RBI. Chas McCormick, Christian Vazquez and Alex Bregman are all 1-for-2 (.500). Bregman and Vazquez each drove in a run.

Game 5 Phillies vs Astros Prediction

In Game 4, Houston finally ended Philadelphia’s perfect mark at home in the MLB postseason, throwing a combined no-hitter in the process. The next challenge is for Verlander to finally end his personal World Series hex.

While the Astros will be hoping for vintage Verlander, the Phillies aren’t planning for more than one time through the Houston batting order from Syndergaard.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML (+135)

 

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