Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Player Props, Picks & Predictions – Game 3 (Oct. 11)
- Tied 1-1, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet in a pivotal Game 3 this afternoon
- Philadelphia blew a 4-0 lead on Monday, their first loss of the 2023 MLB playoffs
- See the Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 3 odds, player props, and picks
After blowing a four-run, sixth-inning lead in Game 2, the Philadelphia Phillies (93-73, 51-32 home) look to rebound as their best-of-five NLDS with the Atlanta Braves (105-59, 52-29 away) shifts to Philly for the next two, starting with Game 3 at 5:07 pm ET on Wednesday, Oct. 11.
Rolling out Aaron Nola for the Game 3 start, the Phillies are -120 favorites to take a 2-1 lead and push Atlanta to the brink of elimination.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +102 | -1.5 (+162) | O 9 (-108) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -120 | +1.5 (-196) | U 9 (-112) |
Atlanta comes back as a slight +102 underdog while the run total is at nine, shaded a little to the under (-108o/-112u).
Odds as of Oct. 11 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Lock in this FanDuel promo code to bet on Braves vs Phillies Game 3 today.
With the LA Dodgers in a 2-0 to the erstwhile underdog Arizona Diamondbacks, the Braves occupy top spots in the NL Pennant odds. Atlanta is the +130 favorite to advance to the World Series in the MLB playoff bracket, with Philadelphia back at +245.
Atlanta vs Philadelphia Game 3 Starting Pitchers
The starting-pitcher duel appears to favor the Phillies on the surface. Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the mound today, opposite 24-year-old Braves rookie Bryce Elder, who will be making his first postseason appearance.
Bryce Elder vs Aaron Nola
| 12-4 | Record | 12-9 |
| 3.81 | ERA | 4.46 |
| 4.42 | FIP | 4.03 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 17.5% | SO% | 25.5% |
While he had his ups and downs in the playoffs last year (4.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 25.2 innings), Nola was brilliant in the Wild Card Round against Miami last week. He pitched seven scoreless innings in the series-clinching Game 2 victory, allowing just three hits and a walk, despite only recording three strikeouts in the process.
His numbers against this Atlanta lineup are neither disastrous nor spectacular. In a massive 360 at-bats, Braves hitters are slashing .250/.293/.467 against Nola with 18 home runs and 22 doubles, but also 107 Ks.
Austin Riley has hit Nola the hardest over the years (.398 BA with five homers, five doubles, and nine RBI) while Ronald Acuna Jr has also had a ton of success against the veteran righty (.327 BA with four homers, five doubles, and nine RBI). Eight members of the Braves have faced Nola at least 20 times in their careers.
Philly’s lineup obviously has considerably less history against the rookie Elder. The 6’2 righty made two starts against the Phillies in his rookie season; the first was sublime (seven shutout innings while scattering three hits and two walks and fanning six) and the second was ugly (four runs on three hits and five walks over just 3.2 innings with zero strikeouts). Concerningly for Atlanta, that second start came in late September, meaning the Philly hitters should still have recent memories of facing Elder.
Looking at the MLB public betting splits for Game 3, it’s clear that the vast majority of bettors see at least one of the starters in Wednesday’s MLB lineups having a rough outing. Well over 80% of the money bet on the total is on over 9.0 runs.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Player Props
| Player | 1+ Home Run | Hits | RBIs | Pitcher Strikeouts | Outs Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | +600 | 1.5 (+195o/-270u) | 0.5 (+145o/-195u) | N/A | N/A |
| Austin Riley | +340 | 0.5 (-230o/+165u) | 0.5 (+150o/-205u) | N/A | N/A |
| Brandon Marsh | +550 | 0.5 (-135o/+105u) | 0.5 (+220o/-310u) | N/A | N/A |
| Bryce Harper | +310 | 0.5 (-235o/+175u) | 0.5 (+140o/-185u) | N/A | N/A |
| Bryson Stott | +700 | 0.5 (-240o/+175u) | 0.5 (+160o/-220u) | N/A | N/A |
| Eddie Rosario | +500 | 0.5 (-140o/+105u) | 0.5 (+240o/-350u) | N/A | N/A |
| JT Realmuto | +350 | 0.5 (-225o/+165) | 0.5 (+135o/-180u) | N/A | N/A |
| Johan Rojas | +900 | 0.5 (-170o/+125u) | 0.5 (+245o/-360u) | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Schwarber | +220 | 0.5 (-175o/+130u) | 0.5 (+145o/-195u) | N/A | N/A |
| Marcell Ozuna | +290 | 0.5 (-230o/+170u) | 0.5 (+145o/-195u) | N/A | N/A |
| Matt Olson | +290 | 0.5 (-175o/+130u) | 0.5 (+155o/-210u) | N/A | N/A |
| Michael Harris | +550 | 0.5 (-180o/+135u) | 0.5 (+235o/-340u) | N/A | N/A |
| Nick Castellanos | +425 | 0.5 (-185o/+140u) | 0.5 (+155o/-210u) | N/A | N/A |
| Orlando Arcia | +700 | 0.5 (-170o/+130u) | 0.5 (+260o/-380u) | N/A | N/A |
| Ozzie Albies | +340 | 0.5 (-240o/+175u) | 0.5 (+140o/-190u) | N/A | N/A |
| Ronald Acuna Jr | +340 | 1.5 (+145o/-195u) | 0.5 (+160o/-215u) | N/A | N/A |
| Travis d’Arnaud | +500 | 0.5 (-200o/+150u) | 0.5 (+210o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| Trea Turner | +340 | 1.5 (+180/-245u) | 0.5 (+140o/-190u) | N/A | N/A |
| Bryce Elder | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.5 (+120o/-160u) | 11.5 (-115o/-115u) |
| Aaron Nola | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.5 (-160o/+120u) | 14.5 (-160o/+125u) |
In Philly’s hitter-friendly park, Wednesday’s MLB player props include some short odds to go yard. Both Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson are at +290, shortest of the day (among all three games), while Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna Jr, and Austin Riley are all sitting at +340.
The pitcher props are shockingly unkind to Elder. His total outs is listed at just 11.5, suggesting he is unlikely to start the fifth inning. Nola’s outs-recorded O/U is 14.5, meaning he’ll need to finish the fifth inning to hit the over.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Predictions
The Phillies have been phenomenal at home in recent history, especially in the playoffs. They met the Braves in this exact situation last year after splitting the first two games of the 2022 NLDS in Atlanta. Philly went onto win both Games 3 and 4 at home in dominant fashion (9-1 and 8-3). Those were the middle games in a run of six straight home wins to start the postseason last year, a run which only ended in Game 3 against Houston in the World Series.
While the Braves won five of six in Philadelphia during the regular season, playoff baseball at Citizens Bank Park is proving to be a different beast, and the Phillies hitters will be ready to tee-off on a rookie that they bruised up just three weeks ago.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Picks:
- Phillies moneyline first 5 innings (-135)
- Elder over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
