Best MLB Player Props to Bet on Friday, July 7

Updated: July 7, 2023 at 8:10 am EDT

Published: July 6, 2023

Ronald Acuna Jr. speeds around the bases — Jul 3, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) rounds third base en route to scoring during the third inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Friday’s MLB Player props are live for the 15-game slate (July 7)
Ronald Acuna Jr is slashing .417/.500/.708 over the last week
Don’t miss Friday’s best MLB player props to bet, below

The weekend is here, and along with it comes Friday’s 15-game MLB slate. The day’s action is loaded with compelling matchups, including a battle between the Braves and Rays, the top-two contenders in the World Series odds.

That contest is sure to draw plenty of attention in all markets of the MLB odds, and it’s the first game we’re targeting in our Friday player prop picks.

MLB Player Props – Friday, July 7th

Prop	Odds
Ronald Acuna Jr Over 1.5 Bases	+115
Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts	-130
Alex Faedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts	-130

Odds as of July 7th at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on MLB player props on Friday.

Our card starts with over 1.5 bases for Ronald Acuna Jr, at juicy +115 odds. Acuna has been on an absolute tear all season, and is one of, if not the most complete player in baseball.

MLB Player Prop #1: Ronald Acuna Jr Over 1.5 Bases

Over the last week, the favorite in the NL MVP odds is slashing .417/.500/.708. That stretch includes two home runs and five steals, as well as four multi-hit games.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is the first player with 20 HR and 35 SB through his team's first 81 games of the season since 1900 😦 pic.twitter.com/MuwCi4xenY

— ESPN (@espn) July 1, 2023

Acuna and the Braves will square off against flamethrower Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who’s been very hittable this season. Glasnow’s issued a .457 slugging percentage so far, and has yielded six or more hits in three of his past four starts.

The last time he faced a strong lineup the Orioles pounded him for six runs, and Atlanta’s bats led by Acuna are significantly more potent. Acuna and teammate Matt Olson have the two highest wOBA’s over the last two weeks in MLB, while Acuna absolutely rakes versus righties.

He’s currently slashing .343/.416/.599 against right-handed pitching in 2023, with 37 extra-base hits, including 16 home runs.

Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr Over 1.5 Bases (+115)

MLB Player Prop #2: Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts

Sticking with the Braves-Rays mega-tilt for our second selection, as we’re targeting under 7.5 strikeouts for Glasnow. The 29-year-old enters play with a career-high K/9 rate of 14.0, but there’s reasons to believe he’ll fall short of expectations versus the Atlanta regulars in the MLB starting lineups.

As mentioned, the Braves bats on fire. They lead all teams in runs, home runs, average, slugging and wOBA over the past two weeks. Atlanta is averaging 6.8 runs per contest during that stretch, winning 11 of 13 games. They’re fresh off waxing the Guardians 8-1, clubbing 19 hits and three homers in the process.

The Braves will send a franchise-record 8 All-Stars to the Mid-Summer Classic next week, the most by an NL team since the 2008 Cubs (8).

Atlanta is the 5th NL team to send 8 players to the All-Star Game with 2 of the prior 4 reaching the World Series (1960 PIT, 1943 STL). pic.twitter.com/svcMISfIAC

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 4, 2023

Not only are the Braves mashing, but they’re also not whiffing at a high rate. They boast a strikeout rate of only 18.4% over the last two weeks, which is the second lowest in baseball.

As for Glasnow, he’s already having trouble going deep in games, and he’ll likely need 6+ innings to hit eight strikeouts versus Atlanta, something he hasn’t accomplished often this season. Glasnow has pitched 5.2 innings or less in six of his seven outings, and boasts just one quality start on his 2023 resume.

Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)

MLB Player Prop #3: Alex Faedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Our final target will be Detroit righty Alex Faedo. We’re banking on him exceeding 3.5 strikeouts versus the Blue Jays, something he’s done in each of his previous four starts.

Faedo’s 5.54 ERA will scare a lot of bettors away, but that number is misleading. He’s allowed an opponent slash line of .220/.233/.450 which is better than most of his fellow Tigers starters. The 27-year-old has pitched into the 5th inning in each of his five starts this season, and averages exactly one strikeout per inning.

Alex Faedo Strikeouts – Last Four Starts

Opponent	K’s
Texas Rangers	4
Chicago White Sox	10
Washington Nationals	4
Seattle Mariners	7

Toronto’s lineup meanwhile, has seen a major increase in strikeouts lately. For most of the season the Blue Jays have ranked in the bottom-10 in strikeout rate. The last two weeks however, they’re whiffing at a 25% clip. That’s tied for the sixth highest rate in the league, while they’re fresh off striking out 22 times in a double-header on Thursday in Chicago.

Pick: Alex Faedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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